Friday, December 04, 2015

Early Weekend Update

Early Weekend Update

Traveling to Switzerland tonight, little bored at JFK - so thought I'd pop out a quick update.  KInd of a funny week, I had a horrible Thursday - but I think I made money.  Let us see. Whoa, it was a GREAT week.  I started up 6.8% on the year and am now up 9.9%.  Funny week, but a very good week.  I knew my micro portfolio shot up.

MFI Select

Date Differential MFI Value R3K Value
12/1/2012 -2.20%          99,765            101,965
1/1/2013 -1.78%        102,798            104,575
2/1/2013 -2.26%        102,594            104,856
3/1/2013 -2.23%        102,881            105,114
4/1/2013 -0.43%        106,804            107,234
5/1/2013 2.00%        110,423            108,423
6/1/2013 4.75%        115,831            111,085
7/1/2013 4.29%        114,888            110,597
8/1/2013 6.91%        124,799            117,889
9/1/2013 10.46%        124,536            114,079
10/1/2013 19.67%        138,655            118,990
11/1/2013 19.75%        143,514            123,764
12/1/2013 23.70%        150,105            126,405
1/1/2014 26.63%        157,138            130,503
2/1/2014 24.70%        150,619            125,918
3/1/2014 25.66%        158,116            132,458
4/1/2014 30.38%        162,991            132,616
5/1/2014 29.65%        162,428            132,779
6/1/2014 31.44%        167,001            135,559
7/1/2014 39.23%        177,971            138,740
8/1/2014 31.13%        167,054            135,922
9/1/2014 35.90%        177,792            141,892
10/1/2014 29.38%        168,321            138,944
11/1/2014 26.14%        168,810            142,666
12/1/2014 30.22%        176,420            146,198
1/1/2015 28.17%        174,306            146,140
2/1/2015 20.63%        162,833            142,201
3/1/2015 25.15%        175,476            150,324
4/1/2015 29.95%        178,565            148,612
5/1/2015 37.31%        186,655            149,348
6/1/2015 51.53%        202,897            151,371
7/1/2015 62.69%        211,437            148,743
8/1/2015 40.75%        192,117            151,369
9/1/2015 36.41%        178,603            142,195
10/1/2015 43.12%        181,175            138,052
11/1/2015 69.02%        217,959            148,936
12/1/2015 73.49%        223,435            149,946
Current 82.81%        232,476            149,670


Wow, this table really tells the story as I capped the 12/1 last Friday.  I went from 223,435 to 232,476 (snappy 4%) while the benchmark was basically flat.

2/1/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
VEC $28.00 $23.47 $0.00 -16.2% 5.6%
QCOM $62.73 $52.34 $1.86 -13.6% 5.6%
VIAB $63.91 $46.22 $1.13 -25.9% 5.6%
UIS $22.03 $13.33 $0.00 -39.5% 5.6%
NHTC $12.44 $47.13 $0.05 279.3% 5.6%
Totals 36.8% 5.6%
5/6/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
CBI $50.38 $40.87 $0.14 -18.6% 0.4%
PSDV $4.12 $3.90 $0.00 -5.6% 0.4%
TSRA $38.94 $33.66 $0.60 -12.0% 0.4%
KORS $62.24 $42.34 $0.00 -32.0% 0.4%
DEPO $23.50 $18.17 $0.00 -22.7% 0.4%
Totals -18.2% 0.4%
8/17/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
VDSI $18.66 $18.11 $0.00 -3.0% -0.2%
SALE $9.34 $10.00 $0.00 7.1% -0.2%
CSCO $28.95 $27.48 $0.21 -4.4% -0.2%
TGNA $25.30 $28.18 $0.28 12.5% -0.2%
HSII $20.14 $29.58 $0.13 47.5% -0.2%
Totals 12.0% -0.2%
11/15/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
LCI $34.01 $37.45               -   10.1% 2.1%
SAVE $34.48 $43.01               -   24.8% 2.1%
PPC $18.98 $22.04               -   16.1% 2.1%
VEC $23.60 $23.47               -   -0.6% 2.1%
VNCE $3.99 $6.12               -   53.4% 2.1%
Totals 20.8% 2.1%

Looking at the tables, the strength of the week is coming back to me. QCOM was up a ton. VNCE and SAVE shot up a bunch as well. So February continues to be great. May is problematic (what we call 5 losers).  But look at August - HSII is so strong. And look at November. I knew VNCE was a wild card (Magic Diligence called it a falling broad sword), but thus far it has paid off handsomely.

Category/Tranche August November February May Total
Initial Investment        25,000          25,000       25,000        25,000      100,000
Current Tranche 12.0% 20.8% 36.8% -18.2% 13.4%
Previous Tranche 11.2% 69.4% 8.5% 18.3% 44.6%
Tranche -2 41.4% 14.2% 78.3% 33.0% 41.7%
Tranche -3 14.1% 43.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
MFI Overall Gain 100.8% 235.9% 164.5% 28.7% 132.5%
Current Balance        50,195          83,974       66,123        32,184      232,476
R3K Current Tranche -0.2% 2.1% 5.6% 0.4% 2.0%
R3K Overall Gain 58.4% 61.1% 44.5% 34.7% 49.7%
R3K Balance        39,603          40,267       36,116        33,684      149,670
Annualized IRR 23.5% 48.7% 40.8% 10.3% 33.7%

Not  sure if people pay attention to my annualized IRR tables.  But to start with $100,000 in August 2012 (spread evenly over 4 quarters) and to have $232,476 now is very, very excellent. Note this will not tie exactly as I calculate my IRR considering addition amounts I add to tranches when they hit a year.

MFI Formula

Date Differential Value R3K Value
10/1/2014 0.00%        100,000            100,000
11/1/2014 1.63%        102,288            100,658
12/1/2014 0.30%        101,375            101,075
1/1/2015 -0.33%        100,664            100,995
2/1/2015 1.67%        101,281              99,611
3/1/2015 3.62%        106,073            102,454
4/1/2015 5.09%        106,781            101,695
5/1/2015 5.78%        107,859            102,077
6/1/2015 5.08%        108,213            103,134
7/1/2015 4.82%        106,423            101,604
8/1/2015 3.71%        107,112            103,404
9/1/2015 4.38%        101,523              97,139
10/1/2015 6.39%        100,703              94,312
11/1/2015 2.93%        104,835            101,907
12/1/2015 -3.48%          99,443            102,926
Current -2.69%        100,051            102,737
Well, the good news is that I am back in the black -  over $100,000. It is a marathon, not a sprint.

12/31/14 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
CA $30.83 $29.00 $1.00 -2.7% 1.6%
CSCO $28.36 $27.48 $0.82 -0.2% 1.6%
RGR $34.81 $54.32 $1.10 59.2% 1.6%
GME $34.21 $33.30 $1.44 1.6% 1.6%
IQNT $19.87 $19.54 $0.60 1.4% 1.6%
Totals 11.8% 1.6%
3/31/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
HRB $31.99 $37.09 $0.60 17.8% 0.3%
GME $37.69 $33.30 $1.08 -8.8% 0.3%
KING $15.85 $17.65 $0.00 11.3% 0.3%
NSU $3.43 $2.80 $0.08 -16.0% 0.3%
PPC $22.65 $22.04 $0.00 -2.7% 0.3%
Totals 0.3% 0.3%
7/1/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
BKE $46.45 $31.17 $0.46 -31.9% 0.4%
CA $29.34 $29.00 $0.50 0.5% 0.4%
MSFT $44.42 $55.91 $0.67 27.4% 0.4%
QCOM $62.95 $52.34 $0.96 -15.3% 0.4%
VIAB $64.75 $46.22 $0.40 -28.0% 0.4%
Totals -9.5% 0.4%
10/1/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
BKE $36.83 $31.17 $0.23 -14.7% 8.8%
IQNT $21.96 $19.54 $0.15 -10.3% 8.8%
QCOM $53.45 $52.34 $0.48 -1.2% 8.8%
CSCO $26.37 $27.48 $0.21 5.0% 8.8%
CA $27.30 $29.00 $0.25 7.1% 8.8%
Totals -2.8% 8.8%

Not sure if I have a breakout stock in these 20 odd names.  We'll have to wait and see.

MFI Micro

It is stunning to think that this portfolio was at -18.7% at the end of September.  It is now at +8%. For those that are math challenged, that is over a 32% move since then.

8/28/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
VNCE $8.50 $6.12 $0.00 -28.0% 5.0%
ONE $1.99 $3.30 $0.00 65.8% 5.0%
TPUB $11.60 $10.66 $0.18 -6.6% 5.0%
LQDT $7.26 $6.86 $0.00 -5.5% 5.0%
PERI $2.45 $2.80 $0.00 14.3% 5.0%
Totals 8.0% 5.0%

This is a volatile tranche- so buckle up.

Dividends & Warrants

I did sell  my FSC this week at a small loss.  I was concerned about the fact that management interests are not well-aligned with shareholders.  There is a  second company (FSAM) that manages some  of assets of FSC and gets paid VERY handsomely.  And the owners of FSAM are the same people owning FSC.   That is just wrong.   If it was/is fixed, FSC might pop up 40% (they are way under valued), but GTAT taught me to watch management closely and if they were not aligned with me (in GTAT they were selling big time as I was buying) to think hard about bailing.  

I increased REXI position, SJT and started a position in a bond fund (JQC). Gad, now that I think about it,  I may have owned JQC once before.  I'll check  it out.  But my dividend stocks are producing my income stream for retirement.   And at age 56, I don't want to  risk major downside.

Div and Warrants Start Current Dividend Pct Gain
BAC-WTA $6.04 $6.33 $0.00 4.9%
AOD $8.08 $7.89 $1.59 17.3%
JQC $7.82 $7.82 $0.00 0.0%
CSQ $9.32 $10.05 $1.90 28.2%
NTC $12.05 $12.53 $1.19 13.8%
TGONF $10.24 $10.10 $1.19 10.3%
HIG-WT $21.24 $39.43 $0.00 85.7%
O $22.62 $50.01 $17.70 199.4%
OIBAX $5.04 $5.60 $2.14 53.5%
sjt $8.82 $5.22 $0.11 -39.5%
Totals 11.2%

Finally, I did get called out on final CSIQ position (a bit too early to be frank). I did take two  speculative positions (I know,  I know) - DEPO at $17.59 and SPCB at 4.75.  

We'll see how they work out.

Have a great weekend everyone.

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