Traveling to Switzerland tonight, little bored at JFK - so thought I'd pop out a quick update. KInd of a funny week, I had a horrible Thursday - but I think I made money. Let us see. Whoa, it was a GREAT week. I started up 6.8% on the year and am now up 9.9%. Funny week, but a very good week. I knew my micro portfolio shot up.
MFI Select
| Date | Differential | MFI Value | R3K Value |
| 12/1/2012 | -2.20% | 99,765 | 101,965 |
| 1/1/2013 | -1.78% | 102,798 | 104,575 |
| 2/1/2013 | -2.26% | 102,594 | 104,856 |
| 3/1/2013 | -2.23% | 102,881 | 105,114 |
| 4/1/2013 | -0.43% | 106,804 | 107,234 |
| 5/1/2013 | 2.00% | 110,423 | 108,423 |
| 6/1/2013 | 4.75% | 115,831 | 111,085 |
| 7/1/2013 | 4.29% | 114,888 | 110,597 |
| 8/1/2013 | 6.91% | 124,799 | 117,889 |
| 9/1/2013 | 10.46% | 124,536 | 114,079 |
| 10/1/2013 | 19.67% | 138,655 | 118,990 |
| 11/1/2013 | 19.75% | 143,514 | 123,764 |
| 12/1/2013 | 23.70% | 150,105 | 126,405 |
| 1/1/2014 | 26.63% | 157,138 | 130,503 |
| 2/1/2014 | 24.70% | 150,619 | 125,918 |
| 3/1/2014 | 25.66% | 158,116 | 132,458 |
| 4/1/2014 | 30.38% | 162,991 | 132,616 |
| 5/1/2014 | 29.65% | 162,428 | 132,779 |
| 6/1/2014 | 31.44% | 167,001 | 135,559 |
| 7/1/2014 | 39.23% | 177,971 | 138,740 |
| 8/1/2014 | 31.13% | 167,054 | 135,922 |
| 9/1/2014 | 35.90% | 177,792 | 141,892 |
| 10/1/2014 | 29.38% | 168,321 | 138,944 |
| 11/1/2014 | 26.14% | 168,810 | 142,666 |
| 12/1/2014 | 30.22% | 176,420 | 146,198 |
| 1/1/2015 | 28.17% | 174,306 | 146,140 |
| 2/1/2015 | 20.63% | 162,833 | 142,201 |
| 3/1/2015 | 25.15% | 175,476 | 150,324 |
| 4/1/2015 | 29.95% | 178,565 | 148,612 |
| 5/1/2015 | 37.31% | 186,655 | 149,348 |
| 6/1/2015 | 51.53% | 202,897 | 151,371 |
| 7/1/2015 | 62.69% | 211,437 | 148,743 |
| 8/1/2015 | 40.75% | 192,117 | 151,369 |
| 9/1/2015 | 36.41% | 178,603 | 142,195 |
| 10/1/2015 | 43.12% | 181,175 | 138,052 |
| 11/1/2015 | 69.02% | 217,959 | 148,936 |
| 12/1/2015 | 73.49% | 223,435 | 149,946 |
| Current | 82.81% | 232,476 | 149,670 |
Wow, this table really tells the story as I capped the 12/1 last Friday. I went from 223,435 to 232,476 (snappy 4%) while the benchmark was basically flat.
| 2/1/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| VEC | $28.00 | $23.47 | $0.00 | -16.2% | 5.6% |
| QCOM | $62.73 | $52.34 | $1.86 | -13.6% | 5.6% |
| VIAB | $63.91 | $46.22 | $1.13 | -25.9% | 5.6% |
| UIS | $22.03 | $13.33 | $0.00 | -39.5% | 5.6% |
| NHTC | $12.44 | $47.13 | $0.05 | 279.3% | 5.6% |
| Totals | 36.8% | 5.6% | |||
| 5/6/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CBI | $50.38 | $40.87 | $0.14 | -18.6% | 0.4% |
| PSDV | $4.12 | $3.90 | $0.00 | -5.6% | 0.4% |
| TSRA | $38.94 | $33.66 | $0.60 | -12.0% | 0.4% |
| KORS | $62.24 | $42.34 | $0.00 | -32.0% | 0.4% |
| DEPO | $23.50 | $18.17 | $0.00 | -22.7% | 0.4% |
| Totals | -18.2% | 0.4% | |||
| 8/17/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| VDSI | $18.66 | $18.11 | $0.00 | -3.0% | -0.2% |
| SALE | $9.34 | $10.00 | $0.00 | 7.1% | -0.2% |
| CSCO | $28.95 | $27.48 | $0.21 | -4.4% | -0.2% |
| TGNA | $25.30 | $28.18 | $0.28 | 12.5% | -0.2% |
| HSII | $20.14 | $29.58 | $0.13 | 47.5% | -0.2% |
| Totals | 12.0% | -0.2% | |||
| 11/15/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| LCI | $34.01 | $37.45 | - | 10.1% | 2.1% |
| SAVE | $34.48 | $43.01 | - | 24.8% | 2.1% |
| PPC | $18.98 | $22.04 | - | 16.1% | 2.1% |
| VEC | $23.60 | $23.47 | - | -0.6% | 2.1% |
| VNCE | $3.99 | $6.12 | - | 53.4% | 2.1% |
| Totals | 20.8% | 2.1% |
Looking at the tables, the strength of the week is coming back to me. QCOM was up a ton. VNCE and SAVE shot up a bunch as well. So February continues to be great. May is problematic (what we call 5 losers). But look at August - HSII is so strong. And look at November. I knew VNCE was a wild card (Magic Diligence called it a falling broad sword), but thus far it has paid off handsomely.
| Category/Tranche | August | November | February | May | Total |
| Initial Investment | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 100,000 |
| Current Tranche | 12.0% | 20.8% | 36.8% | -18.2% | 13.4% |
| Previous Tranche | 11.2% | 69.4% | 8.5% | 18.3% | 44.6% |
| Tranche -2 | 41.4% | 14.2% | 78.3% | 33.0% | 41.7% |
| Tranche -3 | 14.1% | 43.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| MFI Overall Gain | 100.8% | 235.9% | 164.5% | 28.7% | 132.5% |
| Current Balance | 50,195 | 83,974 | 66,123 | 32,184 | 232,476 |
| R3K Current Tranche | -0.2% | 2.1% | 5.6% | 0.4% | 2.0% |
| R3K Overall Gain | 58.4% | 61.1% | 44.5% | 34.7% | 49.7% |
| R3K Balance | 39,603 | 40,267 | 36,116 | 33,684 | 149,670 |
| Annualized IRR | 23.5% | 48.7% | 40.8% | 10.3% | 33.7% |
Not sure if people pay attention to my annualized IRR tables. But to start with $100,000 in August 2012 (spread evenly over 4 quarters) and to have $232,476 now is very, very excellent. Note this will not tie exactly as I calculate my IRR considering addition amounts I add to tranches when they hit a year.
MFI Formula
| Date | Differential | Value | R3K Value |
| 10/1/2014 | 0.00% | 100,000 | 100,000 |
| 11/1/2014 | 1.63% | 102,288 | 100,658 |
| 12/1/2014 | 0.30% | 101,375 | 101,075 |
| 1/1/2015 | -0.33% | 100,664 | 100,995 |
| 2/1/2015 | 1.67% | 101,281 | 99,611 |
| 3/1/2015 | 3.62% | 106,073 | 102,454 |
| 4/1/2015 | 5.09% | 106,781 | 101,695 |
| 5/1/2015 | 5.78% | 107,859 | 102,077 |
| 6/1/2015 | 5.08% | 108,213 | 103,134 |
| 7/1/2015 | 4.82% | 106,423 | 101,604 |
| 8/1/2015 | 3.71% | 107,112 | 103,404 |
| 9/1/2015 | 4.38% | 101,523 | 97,139 |
| 10/1/2015 | 6.39% | 100,703 | 94,312 |
| 11/1/2015 | 2.93% | 104,835 | 101,907 |
| 12/1/2015 | -3.48% | 99,443 | 102,926 |
| Current | -2.69% | 100,051 | 102,737 |
Well, the good news is that I am back in the black - over $100,000. It is a marathon, not a sprint.
| 12/31/14 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CA | $30.83 | $29.00 | $1.00 | -2.7% | 1.6% |
| CSCO | $28.36 | $27.48 | $0.82 | -0.2% | 1.6% |
| RGR | $34.81 | $54.32 | $1.10 | 59.2% | 1.6% |
| GME | $34.21 | $33.30 | $1.44 | 1.6% | 1.6% |
| IQNT | $19.87 | $19.54 | $0.60 | 1.4% | 1.6% |
| Totals | 11.8% | 1.6% | |||
| 3/31/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| HRB | $31.99 | $37.09 | $0.60 | 17.8% | 0.3% |
| GME | $37.69 | $33.30 | $1.08 | -8.8% | 0.3% |
| KING | $15.85 | $17.65 | $0.00 | 11.3% | 0.3% |
| NSU | $3.43 | $2.80 | $0.08 | -16.0% | 0.3% |
| PPC | $22.65 | $22.04 | $0.00 | -2.7% | 0.3% |
| Totals | 0.3% | 0.3% | |||
| 7/1/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BKE | $46.45 | $31.17 | $0.46 | -31.9% | 0.4% |
| CA | $29.34 | $29.00 | $0.50 | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| MSFT | $44.42 | $55.91 | $0.67 | 27.4% | 0.4% |
| QCOM | $62.95 | $52.34 | $0.96 | -15.3% | 0.4% |
| VIAB | $64.75 | $46.22 | $0.40 | -28.0% | 0.4% |
| Totals | -9.5% | 0.4% | |||
| 10/1/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BKE | $36.83 | $31.17 | $0.23 | -14.7% | 8.8% |
| IQNT | $21.96 | $19.54 | $0.15 | -10.3% | 8.8% |
| QCOM | $53.45 | $52.34 | $0.48 | -1.2% | 8.8% |
| CSCO | $26.37 | $27.48 | $0.21 | 5.0% | 8.8% |
| CA | $27.30 | $29.00 | $0.25 | 7.1% | 8.8% |
| Totals | -2.8% | 8.8% |
Not sure if I have a breakout stock in these 20 odd names. We'll have to wait and see.
MFI Micro
It is stunning to think that this portfolio was at -18.7% at the end of September. It is now at +8%. For those that are math challenged, that is over a 32% move since then.
| 8/28/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| VNCE | $8.50 | $6.12 | $0.00 | -28.0% | 5.0% |
| ONE | $1.99 | $3.30 | $0.00 | 65.8% | 5.0% |
| TPUB | $11.60 | $10.66 | $0.18 | -6.6% | 5.0% |
| LQDT | $7.26 | $6.86 | $0.00 | -5.5% | 5.0% |
| PERI | $2.45 | $2.80 | $0.00 | 14.3% | 5.0% |
| Totals | 8.0% | 5.0% |
This is a volatile tranche- so buckle up.
Dividends & Warrants
I did sell my FSC this week at a small loss. I was concerned about the fact that management interests are not well-aligned with shareholders. There is a second company (FSAM) that manages some of assets of FSC and gets paid VERY handsomely. And the owners of FSAM are the same people owning FSC. That is just wrong. If it was/is fixed, FSC might pop up 40% (they are way under valued), but GTAT taught me to watch management closely and if they were not aligned with me (in GTAT they were selling big time as I was buying) to think hard about bailing.
I increased REXI position, SJT and started a position in a bond fund (JQC). Gad, now that I think about it, I may have owned JQC once before. I'll check it out. But my dividend stocks are producing my income stream for retirement. And at age 56, I don't want to risk major downside.
| Div and Warrants | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain |
| BAC-WTA | $6.04 | $6.33 | $0.00 | 4.9% |
| AOD | $8.08 | $7.89 | $1.59 | 17.3% |
| JQC | $7.82 | $7.82 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
| CSQ | $9.32 | $10.05 | $1.90 | 28.2% |
| NTC | $12.05 | $12.53 | $1.19 | 13.8% |
| TGONF | $10.24 | $10.10 | $1.19 | 10.3% |
| HIG-WT | $21.24 | $39.43 | $0.00 | 85.7% |
| O | $22.62 | $50.01 | $17.70 | 199.4% |
| OIBAX | $5.04 | $5.60 | $2.14 | 53.5% |
| sjt | $8.82 | $5.22 | $0.11 | -39.5% |
| Totals | 11.2% |
Finally, I did get called out on final CSIQ position (a bit too early to be frank). I did take two speculative positions (I know, I know) - DEPO at $17.59 and SPCB at 4.75.
We'll see how they work out.
Have a great weekend everyone.
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment