|Sunset at Lake Zug|
It continues to be a challenging year. A lot of stocks are starting to look pretty cheap. I am not buying anything as I have made more discretionary picks of late than intended. Although they are working pretty well. My SPCB is up 6.3% and my two DEPO buys are up 2% in aggregate (-5% and +9%.
I did kick around the concept of starting a second micro tranche as so many stocks seem reasonably priced right now. To be clear I have not pulled the trigger, it is more aspirational at this time.
Here are the five stocks I thought about and set up as if I bought them yesterday:
I really like MGIC.
I know it seems like a broken record, but I show the MFI index now down 7.3% for the year. My personal results are much better, thanks to being overweight NHTC. I am up 29% for my select tranches and down 3.5% for my formula tranches. Here are the 50 stocks in my index and how they have done in 2015:
|Stock||Start||30-Sep||Current||YTD Change||4th Q Chg|
I think the glimmer of hope is more anecdotal - when I look at stocks currently on the list, I see some pretty cheap names.
Speaking of cheap names, there are also a lot of names that have not been on the screen for a while that may qualify for my Formula approach. Just for fun, since I have a new formula tranche starting in three weeks, I ran my model to see what qualifies.
Of course, I would probably drop PDLI (although it may have dropped SO much that it is ok). PPC and KING should be on this list, but special dividends require a manual overrides and I was too lazy.
Finally I went to my randomizer, and here are the five stocks I would have gotten today:
That is why I use Randomizer, I don't think I'd pick OUTR normally. But I want to take my bias out.
Have a great day.