Bumpy Roads

Sunset at Lake Zug

Bumpy Roads

It continues to be a challenging year.  A lot of stocks are starting to look pretty cheap.  I am not buying anything as I have made more discretionary picks of late than intended. Although they are working pretty well.  My SPCB is up 6.3% and my two DEPO buys are up 2% in aggregate (-5% and +9%.

I did kick around the concept of starting a second micro tranche as so  many stocks seem reasonably priced right now.  To be clear I have not pulled the trigger, it is more aspirational at this time.

Here are the five stocks I thought about and set up as if I bought them yesterday:

12/9/2015	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain
MGIC	$5.30	$5.34	$0.00	0.8%
BSQR	$6.11	$6.06	$0.00	-0.8%
SPCB	$4.86	$5.05	$0.00	3.9%
WLDN	$8.57	$8.46	$0.00	-1.3%
MNDO	$2.64	$2.62	$0.00	-0.8%
Totals			-	0.4%

I really like MGIC.

MFI Index

I know it seems like a broken record, but I show the MFI index now down 7.3% for the year.  My personal results are much better, thanks to being overweight NHTC. I am up 29% for my select tranches and down 3.5% for my formula tranches.  Here are the 50 stocks in my index and how they have done in 2015:

Stock	Start	30-Sep	Current	YTD Change	4th Q Chg
ADMS	17.37	16.74	15.87	-8.6%	-5.2%
AFOP	14.51	17.09	14.96	3.1%	-12.5%
ANIK	40.74	31.83	42.22	3.6%	32.6%
APOL	34.11	11.06	7.23	-78.8%	-34.6%
AGX	33.64	34.68	35.85	6.6%	3.4%
AVID	14.21	7.96	6.59	-53.6%	-17.2%
AWRE	4.54	3.35	3.05	-32.8%	-9.0%
BCOR	13.85	13.77	9.83	-29.0%	-28.6%
BKE	52.52	40.43	35.24	-32.9%	-12.8%
CA	30.45	28.05	28.32	-7.0%	1.0%
CSCO	27.82	26.86	27.55	-1.0%	2.6%
COH	37.56	29.94	31.52	-16.1%	5.3%
DLX	62.25	56.64	59.08	-5.1%	4.3%
DEPO	16.11	18.85	19.16	18.9%	1.6%
EBIX	16.99	25.19	33.80	98.9%	34.2%
FLR	60.63	42.98	45.95	-24.2%	6.9%
GME	33.80	42.29	33.52	-0.8%	-20.7%
GORO	3.38	2.62	2.27	-32.8%	-13.4%
ONE	4.21	1.97	3.15	-25.2%	59.9%
IQNT	19.63	22.78	19.39	-1.2%	-14.9%
IDCC	52.90	51.20	50.87	-3.8%	-0.6%
IILG	20.89	18.60	15.25	-27.0%	-18.0%
ITRN	22.04	21.22	20.57	-6.7%	-3.1%
KING	15.36	14.48	18.75	22.1%	29.5%
LCI	42.88	41.52	38.00	-11.4%	-8.5%
LFVN	9.10	5.67	8.19	-10.0%	44.4%
LQDT	8.17	7.39	6.55	-19.8%	-11.4%
MSB	17.28	12.67	5.22	-69.8%	-58.8%
NHTC	11.45	32.77	48.02	319.4%	46.5%
NSR	27.80	27.21	23.31	-16.2%	-14.3%
NUS	43.70	42.33	37.71	-13.7%	-10.9%
PDLI	7.71	5.18	4.15	-46.2%	0.0%
PFMT	6.65	2.42	1.96	-70.5%	-19.0%
PETS	14.37	16.44	17.21	19.8%	4.7%
PBI	24.37	20.41	20.37	-16.4%	-0.2%
RPXC	13.78	13.72	13.33	-3.3%	-2.8%
SPOK	17.36	16.84	17.95	3.4%	6.6%
STRA	74.28	54.97	56.58	-23.8%	2.9%
RGR	34.63	59.54	57.43	65.8%	-3.5%
TTWO	28.03	28.73	35.59	27.0%	23.9%
TDC	43.68	28.96	28.15	-35.6%	-2.8%
TZOO	12.62	8.27	7.91	-37.3%	-4.4%
TPUB	22.90	8.19	10.09	-56.0%	23.1%
UBNT	29.64	33.89	33.87	14.3%	-0.1%
UIS	29.48	11.90	11.88	-59.7%	-0.2%
USNA	102.59	134.03	132.31	29.0%	-1.3%
VEC	27.40	22.04	21.63	-21.1%	-1.9%
VIAB	75.25	44.28	45.10	-40.1%	1.9%
WTW	24.84	6.38	24.49	-1.4%	283.9%
WILN	2.99	1.94	1.25	-58.2%	-35.6%
Total	19,816	17,853	18,368	-7.3%	2.9%

I think the glimmer of hope is more anecdotal - when I look at stocks currently on the list, I see some pretty cheap names.

MFI Formula

Speaking of cheap names, there are also a lot of names that have not been on the screen for a while that may qualify for my Formula approach.  Just for fun, since I have a new formula tranche starting in three weeks, I ran my model to see what qualifies.

Ticker	Market Cap	Price	Dividend	Yield
BBY	10,637	30.52	0.92	3.0%
BKE	1,521	31.55	0.92	2.9%
CA	12,135	27.57	1.00	3.6%
CALM	2,471	49.24	3.93	8.0%
CSCO	137,976	26.73	0.84	3.1%
GME	3,556	32.44	1.44	4.4%
HPQ	21,820	12.11	0.50	4.1%
IQNT	651	18.94	0.60	3.2%
IILG	827	14.89	0.48	3.2%
OUTR	760	40.90	1.20	2.9%
PDLI	600	3.70	0.60	16.2%
PBI	4,027	19.81	0.75	3.8%
QCOM	75,408	48.59	1.92	4.0%
TNH	1,918	102.00	11.24	11.0%
VIAB	17,795	43.97	1.60	3.6%

Of course, I would probably drop PDLI (although it may have dropped SO much that it is ok). PPC and KING should be on this list, but special dividends require a manual overrides and I was too lazy.

Finally I went to  my randomizer, and here are the five stocks I would have gotten today:

Random	Stock
6	GME
10	OUTR
13	QCOM
7	HPQ
11	PDLI

That is why I use Randomizer, I don't think I'd pick OUTR normally.  But I want to take my bias out.

Have a great day.