MFI Weekend Update - Happy Halloween

Weekend Update

Another week and month are done.  We still have leaves on the trees in full fall color, just beautiful time of year. But the clocks fall back this evening and I know it is now a slippery slope towards winter.

October was a very very good month.  I am too  lazy to figure it out right now, but I am up a nice 9% on the year.  My MFI Select portfolio is the huge winner,  up 25% on the year.  I do have a tranche of the Select portfolio coming up in two weeks. I have bought four pharma MFI stocks and am leaning towards making those the cornerstone of the tranche.

MFI Select

So without further ado, here is the tranche coming up. One of my best tranches ever (#2 to be exact).

11/15/2014	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
FLR	$64.80	$47.81	$0.84	-24.9%	3.3%
IPCM	$38.45	$78.50	$0.00	104.2%	3.3%
VIAB	$72.29	$49.31	$1.46	-29.8%	3.3%
NHTC	$12.19	$49.26	$0.06	304.6%	3.3%
AWRE	$4.40	$3.23	$0.00	-26.6%	3.3%
Totals				65.5%	3.3%

Pretty wide variance amongst the names, this seems to be a stronger theme (though I haven't done the calculation) recently.

2/1/2015	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
VEC	$28.00	$24.87	$0.00	-11.2%	4.8%
QCOM	$62.73	$59.42	$1.38	-3.1%	4.8%
VIAB	$63.91	$49.31	$1.13	-21.1%	4.8%
UIS	$22.03	$13.40	$0.00	-39.2%	4.8%
NHTC	$12.44	$49.26	$0.05	296.4%	4.8%
Totals				44.4%	4.8%
5/6/2015	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
CBI	$50.38	$44.87	$0.14	-10.7%	-0.4%
PSDV	$4.12	$3.84	$0.00	-6.9%	-0.4%
TSRA	$38.94	$34.97	$0.40	-9.2%	-0.4%
KORS	$62.24	$38.64	$0.00	-37.9%	-0.4%
DEPO	$23.50	$17.50	$0.00	-25.5%	-0.4%
Totals				-18.0%	-0.4%
8/17/2015	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
VDSI	$18.66	$19.01	$0.00	1.9%	-1.0%
SALE	$9.34	$8.79	$0.00	-5.9%	-1.0%
CSCO	$28.95	$28.85	$0.21	0.4%	-1.0%
TGNA	$25.30	$27.04	$0.14	7.4%	-1.0%
HSII	$20.14	$26.56	$0.00	31.9%	-1.0%
Totals				7.1%	-1.0%
Category/Tranche	August	November	February	May	Total
Initial Investment	25,000	25,000	25,000	25,000	100,000
Current Tranche	7.1%	65.5%	44.4%	-18.0%	25.2%
Previous Tranche	11.2%	14.2%	8.5%	18.3%	16.7%
Tranche -2	41.4%	43.7%	78.3%	33.0%	49.1%
Tranche -3	14.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
MFI Overall Gain	92.1%	171.7%	179.1%	28.9%	118.0%
Current Balance	48,034	67,913	69,776	32,236	217,959
R3K Current Tranche	-1.0%	3.3%	4.8%	-0.4%	1.7%
R3K Overall Gain	57.1%	61.7%	43.3%	33.6%	48.9%
R3K Balance	39,282	40,417	35,825	33,412	148,936
Annualized IRR	22.5%	40.2%	45.3%	10.8%	30.8%

Date	Differential	MFI Value	R3K Value
12/1/2012	-2.20%	99,765	101,965
1/1/2013	-1.78%	102,798	104,575
2/1/2013	-2.26%	102,594	104,856
3/1/2013	-2.23%	102,881	105,114
4/1/2013	-0.43%	106,804	107,234
5/1/2013	2.00%	110,423	108,423
6/1/2013	4.75%	115,831	111,085
7/1/2013	4.29%	114,888	110,597
8/1/2013	6.91%	124,799	117,889
9/1/2013	10.46%	124,536	114,079
10/1/2013	19.67%	138,655	118,990
11/1/2013	19.75%	143,514	123,764
12/1/2013	23.70%	150,105	126,405
1/1/2014	26.63%	157,138	130,503
2/1/2014	24.70%	150,619	125,918
3/1/2014	25.66%	158,116	132,458
4/1/2014	30.38%	162,991	132,616
5/1/2014	29.65%	162,428	132,779
6/1/2014	31.44%	167,001	135,559
7/1/2014	39.23%	177,971	138,740
8/1/2014	31.13%	167,054	135,922
9/1/2014	35.90%	177,792	141,892
10/1/2014	29.38%	168,321	138,944
11/1/2014	26.14%	168,810	142,666
12/1/2014	30.22%	176,420	146,198
1/1/2015	28.17%	174,306	146,140
2/1/2015	20.63%	162,833	142,201
3/1/2015	25.15%	175,476	150,324
4/1/2015	29.95%	178,565	148,612
5/1/2015	37.31%	186,655	149,348
6/1/2015	51.53%	202,897	151,371
7/1/2015	62.69%	211,437	148,743
8/1/2015	40.75%	192,117	151,369
9/1/2015	36.41%	178,603	142,195
10/1/2015	43.12%	181,175	138,052
11/1/2015	69.02%	217,959	148,936

This month by month progression table is incredible. It really illustrates how good October was. You can see the value increased by 20% (181 to 218).  It was a great month and has been a great year.

MFI Formula

While not as off the charts as our "select" friends, these chaps are still up  a bit more than 4% on the year and are edging out the benchmark in the metrics. So not an overnight success story, but certainly plodding along & making money.

Date	Differential	Value	R3K Value
10/1/2014	0.00%	100,000	100,000
11/1/2014	1.63%	102,288	100,658
12/1/2014	0.30%	101,375	101,075
1/1/2015	-0.33%	100,664	100,995
2/1/2015	1.67%	101,281	99,611
3/1/2015	3.62%	106,073	102,454
4/1/2015	5.09%	106,781	101,695
5/1/2015	5.78%	107,859	102,077
6/1/2015	5.08%	108,213	103,134
7/1/2015	4.82%	106,423	101,604
8/1/2015	3.71%	107,112	103,404
9/1/2015	4.38%	101,523	97,139
10/1/2015	6.39%	100,703	94,312
11/1/2015	2.93%	104,835	101,907

12/31/14 Stocks	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
CA	$30.83	$27.71	$0.75	-7.7%	0.8%
CSCO	$28.36	$28.85	$0.82	4.6%	0.8%
RGR	$34.81	$56.94	$0.85	66.0%	0.8%
GME	$34.21	$46.07	$1.08	37.8%	0.8%
IQNT	$19.87	$20.72	$0.45	6.5%	0.8%
Totals				21.5%	0.8%
3/31/2015	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
HRB	$31.99	$37.26	$0.40	17.7%	-0.5%
GME	$37.69	$46.07	$0.72	24.1%	-0.5%
KING	$15.85	$14.96	$0.00	-5.6%	-0.5%
NSU	$3.43	$3.00	$0.08	-10.2%	-0.5%
PPC	$22.65	$18.99	$0.00	-16.2%	-0.5%
Totals				2.0%	-0.5%
7/1/2015	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
BKE	$46.45	$35.44	$0.46	-22.7%	-0.4%
CA	$29.34	$27.71	$0.25	-4.7%	-0.4%
MSFT	$44.42	$52.64	$0.31	19.2%	-0.4%
QCOM	$62.95	$59.42	$0.48	-4.8%	-0.4%
VIAB	$64.75	$49.31	$0.40	-23.2%	-0.4%
Totals				-7.3%	-0.4%
10/1/2015	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
BKE	$36.83	$35.44	$0.23	-3.1%	7.9%
IQNT	$21.96	$20.72	$0.00	-5.6%	7.9%
QCOM	$53.45	$59.42	$0.00	11.2%	7.9%
CSCO	$26.37	$28.85	$0.21	10.2%	7.9%
CA	$27.30	$27.71	$0.00	1.5%	7.9%
Totals				2.8%	7.9%

As you can see, not always a straight line to success. remember Greenblatt said only 5 of 8 portfolios "win".

Date	Differential	Value	R3K Value
10/1/2014	0.00%	100,000	100,000
11/1/2014	1.63%	102,288	100,658
12/1/2014	0.30%	101,375	101,075
1/1/2015	-0.33%	100,664	100,995
2/1/2015	1.67%	101,281	99,611
3/1/2015	3.62%	106,073	102,454
4/1/2015	5.09%	106,781	101,695
5/1/2015	5.78%	107,859	102,077
6/1/2015	5.08%	108,213	103,134
7/1/2015	4.82%	106,423	101,604
8/1/2015	3.71%	107,112	103,404
9/1/2015	4.38%	101,523	97,139
10/1/2015	6.39%	100,703	94,312
11/1/2015	2.93%	104,835	101,907

MFI Micro

My small caps are still struggling, but they have certainly cut down the lead.

8/28/2015	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
VNCE	$8.50	$4.55	$0.00	-46.5%	4.1%
ONE	$1.99	$2.94	$0.00	47.7%	4.1%
TPUB	$11.60	$9.44	$0.18	-17.1%	4.1%
LQDT	$7.26	$8.19	$0.00	12.8%	4.1%
PERI	$2.45	$2.11	$0.00	-13.9%	4.1%
Totals				-3.4%	4.1%

MFI Pharma

Here are my recent Pharma buys in the huge healthcare sell off.

10/20/2015	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
LCI	$43.26	$44.77	$0.00	3.5%	1.9%
DEPO	$16.96	$17.50	$0.00	3.2%	1.9%
AMAG	$35.63	$40.00	$0.00	12.3%	1.9%
ENTA	$25.37	$28.09	$0.00	10.7%	1.9%
Totals				7.4%	1.9%

I am not sure what I will ultimately do with these stocks.

Dividends & Warrants

Div and Warrants	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	Pct Gain Last Week
BAC-WTA	$6.04	$6.43	$0.00	6.5%	1.2%
AOD	$8.09	$8.01	$1.55	18.2%	18.7%
FSC	$7.05	$5.73	$0.46	-12.2%	-13.4%
CSQ	$9.31	$10.20	$1.83	29.2%	29.9%
NTC	$12.05	$12.55	$1.14	13.7%	13.3%
TGONF	$10.24	$9.80	$1.03	5.8%	5.5%
HIG-WT	$21.24	$39.69	$0.00	86.9%	97.2%
O	$22.52	$49.46	$17.58	197.7%	198.8%
OIBAX	$5.04	$5.64	$2.12	54.1%	54.3%
sjt	$11.06	$7.65	$0.17	-29.3%	-26.2%
Totals				12.3%	12.1%

You can see the BAC warrants have been doing very well.  I added to my position at the start of October, and that group is up 19%.

So all in all, everything is reasonably ok. Probably suggests another sell off!  I am starting to believe China is much worse off than they are letting on.