Tuesday, October 06, 2015

Upcoming 11/15 Tranche

probably not too early to start thinking about my upcoming 11/15/15 tranche. The tranche from a year ago is looking like one of my best of all time with two stocks up over 100% (IPCM and NHTC). Overall, the five stocks are up an average of 44% versus the benchmark being down a percentage point. That 45 point differential (if it holds, would be my second best ever. February 2013 was up 78% and had a 57 point differential - those were the days).  Funny, looking back at that tranche, I had AAPL, which is up 60% since the, STRZA, up 40% - but NUS is down more than 50%.

My current tranche is NHTC, IPCM, FLR, VIAB, and AWRE. While the first two, as mentioned, are each up over 100%, the other three are all down significantly - about 30% on average.

Looking forward, I made a list of names to consider. Many are stocks I have owned in the past, that is the nature of this approach.

ENTA - seems cheap and I don't mind some pharmas.
RPXC - 777m market cap, with $400 million of excess cash.
SGU - propane business with solid dividend.
CBI - as before, too cheap to write off.
VIAB - of 34 analysts, the lowest is $5.55 EPS next year. For a $45 stock.
VEC - really beaten down of late
LCI - another pharmaceutical, cheap, browning with a good balance sheet.
PPC - more chicken anybody?
DLX - these guys just create positive cash flow.
HPQ - will split up create value? Will windows 10 increase demand?
TARO - third Pharma, also looks attractive.
CYOU - owned a couple years back. They seem to have righted the ship and seem exceedingly cheap.
BRCD - owned in past as well. Steady eddy with a dividend.

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