Saturday, October 17, 2015

Weekend Update - live From Pittsburgh

Weekend Update

Good morning everyone.  I am in Pittsburgh this morning, serious Steelers country. Everyone has their sweat shirts, jerseys and hats on, showing their team pride.

It was a very flat week for my portfolio, while the market was up under a percent.  I continue to be extremely boring - no transactions (other than reinvested dividends) on the week.


MFI Select

11/15/2014 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
FLR $64.80 $44.66 $0.84 -29.8% 1.4%
IPCM $38.45 $79.62 $0.00 107.1% 1.4%
VIAB $72.29 $49.75 $1.46 -29.2% 1.4%
NHTC $12.19 $37.32 $0.06 206.6% 1.4%
AWRE $4.40 $3.19 $0.00 -27.5% 1.4%
Totals 45.5% 1.4%
2/1/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
VEC $28.00 $24.01 $0.00 -14.3% 2.8%
QCOM $62.73 $59.91 $1.38 -2.3% 2.8%
VIAB $63.91 $49.75 $1.13 -20.4% 2.8%
UIS $22.03 $13.25 $0.00 -39.9% 2.8%
NHTC $12.44 $37.32 $0.05 200.4% 2.8%
Totals 24.7% 2.8%
5/6/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
CBI $50.38 $40.75 $0.14 -18.8% -2.3%
PSDV $4.12 $3.97 $0.00 -3.7% -2.3%
TSRA $38.94 $33.12 $0.40 -13.9% -2.3%
KORS $62.24 $40.28 $0.00 -35.3% -2.3%
DEPO $23.50 $20.49 $0.00 -12.8% -2.3%
Totals -16.9% -2.3%
8/17/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
VDSI $18.66 $17.77 $0.00 -4.8% -2.9%
SALE $9.34 $9.32 $0.00 -0.2% -2.9%
CSCO $28.95 $28.25 $0.21 -1.7% -2.9%
TGNA $25.30 $25.45 $0.14 1.1% -2.9%
HSII $20.14 $20.79 $0.00 3.2% -2.9%
Totals -0.5% -2.9%

Category/Tranche August November February May Total
Initial Investment        25,000          25,000       25,000        25,000      100,000
Current Tranche -0.5% 45.5% 24.7% -16.9% 13.5%
Previous Tranche 11.2% 14.2% 8.5% 18.3% 16.6%
Tranche -2 41.4% 43.7% 78.3% 33.0% 49.1%
Tranche -3 14.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
MFI Overall Gain 78.5% 138.8% 141.1% 30.7% 97.3%
Current Balance        44,629          59,690       60,278        32,675      197,272
R3K Current Tranche -2.9% 1.4% 2.8% -2.3% -0.3%
R3K Overall Gain 54.1% 58.6% 40.6% 31.1% 46.1%
R3K Balance        38,528          39,652       35,144        32,774      146,098
Annualized IRR 20.0% 34.7% 38.4% 11.5% 27.0%


The earliest tranches continue to do very well.  Just about a month left on 11/15. But the 5/6 tranche is a mess (as I mentioned yesterday). CBI was down very sharply yesterday - not sure why as I was traveling.  The August tranche is back in the red - a bit disappointing.

Date Differential MFI Value R3K Value
12/1/2012 -2.20%          99,765            101,965
1/1/2013 -1.78%        102,798            104,575
2/1/2013 -2.26%        102,594            104,856
3/1/2013 -2.23%        102,881            105,114
4/1/2013 -0.43%        106,804            107,234
5/1/2013 2.00%        110,423            108,423
6/1/2013 4.75%        115,831            111,085
7/1/2013 4.29%        114,888            110,597
8/1/2013 6.91%        124,799            117,889
9/1/2013 10.46%        124,536            114,079
10/1/2013 19.67%        138,655            118,990
11/1/2013 19.75%        143,514            123,764
12/1/2013 23.70%        150,105            126,405
1/1/2014 26.63%        157,138            130,503
2/1/2014 24.70%        150,619            125,918
3/1/2014 25.66%        158,116            132,458
4/1/2014 30.38%        162,991            132,616
5/1/2014 29.65%        162,428            132,779
6/1/2014 31.44%        167,001            135,559
7/1/2014 39.23%        177,971            138,740
8/1/2014 31.13%        167,054            135,922
9/1/2014 35.90%        177,792            141,892
10/1/2014 29.38%        168,321            138,944
11/1/2014 26.14%        168,810            142,666
12/1/2014 30.22%        176,420            146,198
1/1/2015 28.17%        174,306            146,140
2/1/2015 20.63%        162,833            142,201
3/1/2015 25.15%        175,476            150,324
4/1/2015 29.95%        178,565            148,612
5/1/2015 37.31%        186,655            149,348
6/1/2015 51.53%        202,897            151,371
7/1/2015 62.69%        211,437            148,743
8/1/2015 40.75%        192,117            151,369
9/1/2015 36.41%        178,603            142,195
10/1/2015 43.12%        181,175            138,052
Current 51.17%        197,272            146,098

You can see that my current spread between the index is one of the highest marks in history. So it is working for me.

MFI Formula

12/31/14 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
CA $30.83 $28.92 $0.75 -3.7% -1.1%
CSCO $28.36 $28.25 $0.82 2.5% -1.1%
RGR $34.81 $58.86 $0.85 71.5% -1.1%
GME $34.21 $44.46 $1.08 33.1% -1.1%
IQNT $19.87 $20.46 $0.45 5.2% -1.1%
Totals 21.7% -1.1%
3/31/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
HRB $31.99 $35.62 $0.40 12.6% -2.4%
GME $37.69 $44.46 $0.72 19.9% -2.4%
KING $15.85 $14.78 $0.00 -6.8% -2.4%
NSU $3.43 $3.10 $0.08 -7.3% -2.4%
PPC $22.65 $19.00 $0.00 -16.1% -2.4%
Totals 0.5% -2.4%
7/1/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
BKE $46.45 $35.22 $0.46 -23.2% -2.3%
CA $29.34 $28.92 $0.25 -0.6% -2.3%
MSFT $44.42 $47.51 $0.31 7.7% -2.3%
QCOM $62.95 $59.91 $0.48 -4.1% -2.3%
VIAB $64.75 $49.75 $0.40 -22.5% -2.3%
Totals -8.5% -2.3%
10/1/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
BKE $36.83 $35.22 $0.23 -3.7% 5.8%
IQNT $21.96 $20.46 $0.00 -6.8% 5.8%
QCOM $53.45 $59.91 $0.00 12.1% 5.8%
CSCO $26.37 $28.25 $0.21 7.9% 5.8%
CA $27.30 $28.92 $0.00 5.9% 5.8%
Totals 3.1% 5.8%
QCOM really had a nice week. Three of my four open tranches are trailing.  But the 12/31 is up by so  much that I am ahead.

Date Differential Value R3K Value
10/1/2014 0.00%        100,000            100,000
11/1/2014 1.63%        102,288            100,658
12/1/2014 0.30%        101,375            101,075
1/1/2015 -0.33%        100,664            100,995
2/1/2015 1.67%        101,281              99,611
3/1/2015 3.62%        106,073            102,454
4/1/2015 5.09%        106,781            101,695
5/1/2015 5.78%        107,859            102,077
6/1/2015 5.08%        108,213            103,134
7/1/2015 4.82%        106,423            101,604
8/1/2015 3.71%        107,112            103,404
9/1/2015 4.38%        101,523              97,139
10/1/2015 6.39%        100,703              94,312
Current 4.30%        104,264              99,963

Looking at the differential table - you can see it is working, but not enough yet to  party like it is 1999.

MFI Micro

This portfolio had been making a mini comeback, but that was slapped down last week.  Like I said before, I need one of these five stocks to be a two bagger.

8/28/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
VNCE $8.50 $4.20 $0.00 -50.6% 2.1%
ONE $1.99 $2.07 $0.00 4.0% 2.1%
TPUB $11.60 $9.49 $0.18 -16.7% 2.1%
LQDT $7.26 $8.12 $0.00 11.8% 2.1%
PERI $2.45 $2.40 $0.00 -2.0% 2.1%
Totals -10.7% 2.1%

Dividends & Warrants

At least BAC had good earnings this week.  The warrants on that stock will test your patience.

Div and Warrants Start Current Dividend Pct Gain Pct Gain Last Week
BAC-WTA $6.04 $5.60 $0.00 -7.2% -8.7%
AOD $8.09 $7.98 $1.50 17.3% 17.0%
FSC $7.05 $6.03 $0.46 -7.9% -3.5%
CSQ $9.31 $9.96 $1.85 26.9% 26.2%
NTC $12.05 $12.42 $1.14 12.6% 11.9%
TGONF $10.24 $9.45 $1.03 2.3% 3.3%
HIG-WT $21.24 $39.38 $0.00 85.4% 87.7%
O $22.41 $48.61 $17.46 194.7% 191.0%
OIBAX $5.04 $5.67 $2.12 54.7% 54.5%
Totals 15.2% 15.6%

I know that this was a speed update, but I do have places to go and people to see. Have a great weekend.

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