I thought I'd go ahead and blog tonight. Tomorrow will be a bit crazy. My wife is running her first ever (and possibly last) half marathon tomorrow morning in Hartford. Start time is 8 am - the estimated temperature will be 45 degrees and breezy. I am running a 5K in moral support and then will be at the finish line to cheer her on. I have never run in a big race like this. I took a look and over 11,000 runners participated last year - so I think we can both safely state we won't be last.
It was a superb week for me in the markets, nice for a change. I was actually playing around with starting an MFI tranche of pharma type stocks (AMAG, DEPO, ENTA, GILD and LCI. This whole space feels very black and blue. But I then "stepped away from the batter" - if some of those names are still cheap in mid November, I can use in that tranche.
MFI Select
It seems that this portfolio kind of swings with NHTC. I suppose that makes sense as while it is just 2 of my twenty stocks in these 4 tranches (10% for the math challenged), it is 25% of my current value. And this was a good week for NHTC - up 7%.
| 11/15/2014 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| FLR | $64.80 | $47.41 | $0.84 | -25.5% | 0.7% |
| IPCM | $38.45 | $79.25 | $0.00 | 106.1% | 0.7% |
| VIAB | $72.29 | $47.48 | $1.46 | -32.3% | 0.7% |
| NHTC | $12.19 | $35.55 | $0.06 | 192.1% | 0.7% |
| AWRE | $4.40 | $3.37 | $0.00 | -23.4% | 0.7% |
| Totals | 43.4% | 0.7% | |||
| 2/1/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| VEC | $28.00 | $23.57 | $0.00 | -15.8% | 2.1% |
| QCOM | $62.73 | $57.78 | $1.38 | -5.7% | 2.1% |
| VIAB | $63.91 | $47.48 | $1.13 | -23.9% | 2.1% |
| UIS | $22.03 | $13.70 | $0.00 | -37.8% | 2.1% |
| NHTC | $12.44 | $35.55 | $0.05 | 186.2% | 2.1% |
| Totals | 20.6% | 2.1% | |||
| 5/6/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CBI | $50.38 | $44.08 | $0.14 | -12.2% | -2.9% |
| PSDV | $4.12 | $3.79 | $0.00 | -8.1% | -2.9% |
| TSRA | $38.94 | $33.22 | $0.40 | -13.7% | -2.9% |
| KORS | $62.24 | $42.59 | $0.00 | -31.6% | -2.9% |
| DEPO | $23.50 | $19.00 | $0.00 | -19.1% | -2.9% |
| Totals | -16.9% | -2.9% | |||
| 8/17/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| VDSI | $18.66 | $19.22 | $0.00 | 3.0% | -3.5% |
| SALE | $9.34 | $9.02 | $0.00 | -3.4% | -3.5% |
| CSCO | $28.95 | $27.91 | $0.21 | -2.9% | -3.5% |
| TGNA | $25.30 | $26.20 | $0.14 | 4.1% | -3.5% |
| HSII | $20.14 | $21.72 | $0.00 | 7.8% | -3.5% |
| Totals | 1.7% | -3.5% |
So one can see that even the August tranche is starting to look passable.
| Category/Tranche | August | November | February | May | Total |
| Initial Investment | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 100,000 |
| Current Tranche | 1.7% | 43.4% | 20.6% | -16.9% | 12.4% |
| Previous Tranche | 11.2% | 14.2% | 8.5% | 18.3% | 16.6% |
| Tranche -2 | 41.4% | 43.7% | 78.3% | 33.0% | 49.1% |
| Tranche -3 | 14.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| MFI Overall Gain | 82.4% | 135.4% | 133.1% | 30.7% | 95.4% |
| Current Balance | 45,612 | 58,846 | 58,277 | 32,665 | 195,399 |
| R3K Current Tranche | -3.5% | 0.7% | 2.1% | -2.9% | -0.9% |
| R3K Overall Gain | 53.1% | 57.6% | 39.7% | 30.2% | 45.1% |
| R3K Balance | 38,273 | 39,394 | 34,914 | 32,559 | 145,141 |
| Annualized IRR | 21.0% | 34.3% | 37.0% | 11.6% | 26.5% |
| Date | Differential | MFI Value | R3K Value |
| 12/1/2012 | -2.20% | 99,765 | 101,965 |
| 1/1/2013 | -1.78% | 102,798 | 104,575 |
| 2/1/2013 | -2.26% | 102,594 | 104,856 |
| 3/1/2013 | -2.23% | 102,881 | 105,114 |
| 4/1/2013 | -0.43% | 106,804 | 107,234 |
| 5/1/2013 | 2.00% | 110,423 | 108,423 |
| 6/1/2013 | 4.75% | 115,831 | 111,085 |
| 7/1/2013 | 4.29% | 114,888 | 110,597 |
| 8/1/2013 | 6.91% | 124,799 | 117,889 |
| 9/1/2013 | 10.46% | 124,536 | 114,079 |
| 10/1/2013 | 19.67% | 138,655 | 118,990 |
| 11/1/2013 | 19.75% | 143,514 | 123,764 |
| 12/1/2013 | 23.70% | 150,105 | 126,405 |
| 1/1/2014 | 26.63% | 157,138 | 130,503 |
| 2/1/2014 | 24.70% | 150,619 | 125,918 |
| 3/1/2014 | 25.66% | 158,116 | 132,458 |
| 4/1/2014 | 30.38% | 162,991 | 132,616 |
| 5/1/2014 | 29.65% | 162,428 | 132,779 |
| 6/1/2014 | 31.44% | 167,001 | 135,559 |
| 7/1/2014 | 39.23% | 177,971 | 138,740 |
| 8/1/2014 | 31.13% | 167,054 | 135,922 |
| 9/1/2014 | 35.90% | 177,792 | 141,892 |
| 10/1/2014 | 29.38% | 168,321 | 138,944 |
| 11/1/2014 | 26.14% | 168,810 | 142,666 |
| 12/1/2014 | 30.22% | 176,420 | 146,198 |
| 1/1/2015 | 28.17% | 174,306 | 146,140 |
| 2/1/2015 | 20.63% | 162,833 | 142,201 |
| 3/1/2015 | 25.15% | 175,476 | 150,324 |
| 4/1/2015 | 29.95% | 178,565 | 148,612 |
| 5/1/2015 | 37.31% | 186,655 | 149,348 |
| 6/1/2015 | 51.53% | 202,897 | 151,371 |
| 7/1/2015 | 62.69% | 211,437 | 148,743 |
| 8/1/2015 | 40.75% | 192,117 | 151,369 |
| 9/1/2015 | 36.41% | 178,603 | 142,195 |
| 10/1/2015 | 43.12% | 181,175 | 138,052 |
| Current | 50.26% | 195,399 | 145,141 |
So already in October, this portfolio has jumped from $181,000 (assuming I started at $100,000) to $195,000. That's impressive.
MFI Formula
The most recent tranche is still a bit slow off the mark. But this approach has still been solid for me.
| 12/31/14 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CA | $30.83 | $29.00 | $0.75 | -3.5% | -1.8% |
| CSCO | $28.36 | $27.91 | $0.82 | 1.3% | -1.8% |
| RGR | $34.81 | $59.99 | $0.85 | 74.8% | -1.8% |
| GME | $34.21 | $44.41 | $1.08 | 33.0% | -1.8% |
| IQNT | $19.87 | $20.38 | $0.45 | 4.8% | -1.8% |
| Totals | 22.1% | -1.8% | |||
| 3/31/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| HRB | $31.99 | $35.40 | $0.40 | 11.9% | -3.0% |
| GME | $37.69 | $44.41 | $0.72 | 19.7% | -3.0% |
| KING | $15.85 | $14.62 | $0.00 | -7.8% | -3.0% |
| NSU | $3.43 | $3.31 | $0.08 | -1.2% | -3.0% |
| PPC | $22.65 | $20.92 | $0.00 | -7.6% | -3.0% |
| Totals | 3.0% | -3.0% | |||
| 7/1/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BKE | $46.45 | $35.80 | $0.23 | -22.4% | -3.0% |
| CA | $29.34 | $29.00 | $0.25 | -0.3% | -3.0% |
| MSFT | $44.42 | $47.11 | $0.31 | 6.8% | -3.0% |
| QCOM | $62.95 | $57.78 | $0.48 | -7.5% | -3.0% |
| VIAB | $64.75 | $47.48 | $0.40 | -26.1% | -3.0% |
| Totals | -9.9% | -3.0% | |||
| 10/1/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BKE | $36.83 | $35.80 | $0.00 | -2.8% | 5.1% |
| IQNT | $21.96 | $20.38 | $0.00 | -7.2% | 5.1% |
| QCOM | $53.45 | $57.78 | $0.00 | 8.1% | 5.1% |
| CSCO | $26.37 | $27.91 | $0.21 | 6.6% | 5.1% |
| CA | $27.30 | $29.00 | $0.00 | 6.2% | 5.1% |
| Totals | 2.2% | 5.1% |
| Date | Differential | Value | R3K Value |
| 10/1/2014 | 0.00% | 100,000 | 100,000 |
| 11/1/2014 | 1.63% | 102,288 | 100,658 |
| 12/1/2014 | 0.30% | 101,375 | 101,075 |
| 1/1/2015 | -0.33% | 100,664 | 100,995 |
| 2/1/2015 | 1.67% | 101,281 | 99,611 |
| 3/1/2015 | 3.62% | 106,073 | 102,454 |
| 4/1/2015 | 5.09% | 106,781 | 101,695 |
| 5/1/2015 | 5.78% | 107,859 | 102,077 |
| 6/1/2015 | 5.08% | 108,213 | 103,134 |
| 7/1/2015 | 4.82% | 106,423 | 101,604 |
| 8/1/2015 | 3.71% | 107,112 | 103,404 |
| 9/1/2015 | 4.38% | 101,523 | 97,139 |
| 10/1/2015 | 6.39% | 100,703 | 94,312 |
| Current | 5.13% | 104,433 | 99,306 |
So after a bit more than a year, a five point advantage. Not earth shattering, but I'll take it.
MFI Micro
This tranche started off so poorly at the end of August. But it was up about 10% in the past week and is starting to look like a contender. Like I said, these are small cap stocks and they can be really good or really bad. Just need more in the good category than bad.
| 8/28/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| VNCE | $8.50 | $4.09 | $0.00 | -51.9% | 1.4% |
| ONE | $1.99 | $2.30 | $0.00 | 15.6% | 1.4% |
| TPUB | $11.60 | $9.89 | $0.18 | -13.2% | 1.4% |
| LQDT | $7.26 | $8.38 | $0.00 | 15.4% | 1.4% |
| PERI | $2.45 | $2.40 | $0.00 | -2.0% | 1.4% |
| Totals | -7.2% | 1.4% |
Doesn't seem like much, trailing by 8.6 points. But a week ago that deficit was 17 points. That is a big catch up in a mere five trading days.
Here is past week:
| 8/28/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| VNCE | $3.60 | $4.09 | $0.00 | 13.6% | 1.4% |
| ONE | $2.03 | $2.30 | $0.00 | 13.3% | 1.4% |
| TPUB | $8.08 | $9.89 | $0.18 | 24.6% | 1.4% |
| LQDT | $7.53 | $8.38 | $0.00 | 11.3% | 1.4% |
| PERI | $2.08 | $2.40 | $0.00 | 15.4% | 1.4% |
| Totals | 15.6% | 1.4% |
Sometimes it isn't about the actual stock picks, but getting them at the right prices.
D & W
Here is my dividends and warrants portfolio. I never ceased to be amazed at what a laggard BAC is. I know I have until 2019, but it'd be nice if it moved a bit. I have owned the warrant for 2+ years and nada.
| Div and Warrants | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | Pct Gain Last Week |
| BAC-WTA | $6.04 | $5.51 | $0.00 | -8.7% | -8.1% |
| AOD | $8.09 | $7.96 | $1.50 | 17.0% | 13.3% |
| FSC | $7.06 | $6.40 | $0.41 | -3.5% | -5.7% |
| CSQ | $9.31 | $9.90 | $1.85 | 26.2% | 20.0% |
| NTC | $12.05 | $12.40 | $1.09 | 11.9% | 11.8% |
| TGONF | $10.24 | $9.55 | $1.03 | 3.3% | 2.6% |
| HIG-WT | $21.24 | $39.86 | $0.00 | 87.7% | 81.5% |
| O | $22.41 | $47.77 | $17.46 | 191.0% | 183.1% |
| OIBAX | $5.04 | $5.66 | $2.12 | 54.5% | 54.1% |
| Totals | 15.6% | 13.2% |
So I have now added a column showing last week - so you can see I gained some ground. Not BAC though.... C'mon guys!
2015 Overview
So here are some key benchmarks.
Me overall: +2.6%
MFI Select: +12.3%
MFI Formula: +3.7%
MFI Index: -5.3% (tough sledding)
R3K: -0.7%
GARIX: -7.5%
Hard to ever be thrilled with +2.6%. But in the grand scheme it is ok.
Have a great weekend, I'll let you know how it goes.
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