Friday, October 16, 2015

2015 MFI Index - Down Over 5%

2015 MFI Index

Greenblatt said that MFI would only "work" 5 years out of 8. This is shaping up as one of the 3.  My index is down about 5.5% in 2015, while the R3K is just slightly negative.  In the second half of 2015, the index is down over 9%!  And while my index is reconstituted every January 1st, my tracking portfolios of April and May are each down double digits. It has been a struggle.

Here is a listing of the 50 stocks in my index and how they've done for the year and 2H:

Stock Start 30-Jun Current YTD Change 2H Change
  ADMS       17.37         26.22          15.32 -11.8% -41.6%
  AFOP       14.51         18.55          17.90 23.4% -3.5%
  ANIK       40.74         33.03          34.52 -15.3% 4.5%
  APOL       34.11         12.88          10.35 -69.7% -19.6%
  AGX       33.64         40.33          36.40 8.2% -9.7%
  AVID       14.21         13.34            8.83 -37.9% -33.8%
  AWRE         4.54            4.03            3.33 -26.7% -17.4%
  BCOR       13.85         16.15          13.00 -6.1% -19.5%
  BKE       52.52         49.00          38.38 -26.9% -21.7%
  CA       30.45         29.79          29.64 -2.7% -0.5%
  CSCO       27.82         27.86          28.97 4.2% 4.0%
  COH       37.56         34.95          30.87 -17.8% -11.7%
  DLX       62.25         62.60          61.60 -1.0% -1.6%
  DEPO       16.11         21.46          19.56 21.4% -8.9%
  EBIX       16.99         32.69          26.70 57.1% -18.3%
  FLR       60.63         53.43          48.06 -20.7% -10.1%
  GME       33.80         43.68          45.01 33.2% 3.0%
  GORO         3.38            2.82            3.21 -5.0% 13.8%
  ONE         4.21            2.99            2.11 -49.9% -29.4%
  IQNT       19.63         18.55          21.20 8.0% 14.3%
  IDCC       52.90         57.29          50.14 -5.2% -12.5%
  IILG       20.89         23.09          18.69 -10.5% -19.1%
  ITRN       22.04         25.26          22.06 0.1% -12.7%
  KING       15.36         15.19          15.56 1.3% 2.4%
  LCI       42.88         59.44          45.26 5.6% -23.9%
  LFVN         1.30            0.53            0.82 -36.9% 54.7%
  LQDT         8.17            9.63            8.18 0.1% -15.1%
  MSB       17.28         14.24          11.79 -31.8% -17.2%
  NHTC       11.45         41.51          39.71 246.8% -4.3%
  NSR       27.80         29.21          27.51 -1.0% -5.8%
  NUS       43.70         47.83          37.78 -13.5% -21.0%
  PDLI         7.71            6.58            4.81 -37.7% 0.0%
  PFMT         6.65            3.24            2.98 -55.2% -8.0%
  PETS       14.37         17.44          16.60 15.5% -4.8%
  PBI       24.37         21.19          21.37 -12.3% 0.9%
  RPXC       13.78         16.90          15.04 9.1% -11.0%
  SPOK       17.36         17.09          17.41 0.3% 1.8%
  STRA       74.28         43.10          58.60 -21.1% 36.0%
  RGR       34.63         57.94          59.94 73.1% 3.5%
  TTWO       28.03         27.57          31.89 13.8% 15.7%
  TDC       43.68         37.00          28.62 -34.5% -22.6%
  TZOO       12.62         11.28            9.44 -25.2% -16.3%
  TPUB       22.90         15.72          10.00 -56.3% -36.4%
  UBNT       29.64         31.92          34.70 17.1% 8.7%
  UIS       29.48         19.99          13.45 -54.4% -32.7%
  USNA     102.59       136.66        123.66 20.5% -9.5%
  VEC       27.40         24.87          23.68 -13.6% -4.8%
  VIAB       75.25         64.97          50.37 -33.1% -22.5%
  WTW       24.84            4.85            6.90 -72.2% 42.3%
  WILN         2.99            2.40            2.08 -30.4% -13.3%
Total     19,816       20,600        18,715 -5.6% -9.2%


So, not so hot. And if you didn't pick NHTC, you'd be down 10.5%. Whoa. That is pretty bad.

Here are my open MFI tracking portfolios:

10/31/2014 2.7%
11/28/2014 -5.2%
12/31/2014 -5.5%
1/30/2015 -2.4%
2/27/2015 -9.3%
3/27/2015 -8.2%
4/24/2015 -12.6%
5/29/2015 -10.8%
6/26/2015 -9.9%
7/30/2015 -4.1%
8/28/2015 1.0%
9/25/2015 3.8%

You see those figures for April, May and June and then you understand why my May and July 1st tranches are struggling:

5/6/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
CBI $50.38 $44.68 $0.14 -11.0% -2.6%
PSDV $4.12 $3.83 $0.00 -7.1% -2.6%
TSRA $38.94 $33.25 $0.40 -13.6% -2.6%
KORS $62.24 $41.75 $0.00 -32.9% -2.6%
DEPO $23.50 $19.56 $0.00 -16.8% -2.6%
Totals -16.3% -2.6%

7/1/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
BKE $46.45 $34.92 $0.46 -23.8% -2.6%
CA $29.34 $28.89 $0.25 -0.7% -2.6%
MSFT $44.42 $47.01 $0.31 6.5% -2.6%
QCOM $62.95 $59.26 $0.48 -5.1% -2.6%
VIAB $64.75 $49.24 $0.40 -23.3% -2.6%
Totals -9.3% -2.6%

After seeing Burberry's earnings, I am in no rush to see KORS.

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