As my readers know, I have started using an approach to MFI that I call the formula approach. It starts with the screen of stocks > 100 million. Then it parses that list, with stocks having to be > $600m market cap and a 2.4% dividend or greater. I then am allowed to throw out one stock (I have always picked PDLI) and then I randomly select 5 names and hold for a year.
One point of debate is whether I should allow stocks to "repeat" meaning appear in multiple tranches. I have decided "yes" for me. While this approach had worked very very well since 2006, since I started it last October - it has worked decently for me. I did want to step back and look at all stocks and all my tracking portfolios and see if it has worked.
here are my actual tranches:
| 10/1/2014 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BAH | $23.52 | $26.21 | $0.50 | 13.5% | -0.6% |
| BKE | $45.55 | $36.97 | $3.68 | -10.8% | -0.6% |
| CA | $27.87 | $27.30 | $1.00 | 1.5% | -0.6% |
| GME | $41.70 | $41.21 | $1.41 | 2.2% | -0.6% |
| NUS | $44.56 | $41.28 | $1.40 | -4.2% | -0.6% |
| Totals | 0.5% | -0.6% | |||
| 12/31/14 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CA | $30.83 | $29.00 | $0.75 | -3.5% | -1.8% |
| CSCO | $28.36 | $27.91 | $0.82 | 1.3% | -1.8% |
| RGR | $34.81 | $59.99 | $0.85 | 74.8% | -1.8% |
| GME | $34.21 | $44.41 | $1.08 | 33.0% | -1.8% |
| IQNT | $19.87 | $20.38 | $0.45 | 4.8% | -1.8% |
| Totals | 22.1% | -1.8% | |||
| 3/31/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| HRB | $31.99 | $35.40 | $0.40 | 11.9% | -3.0% |
| GME | $37.69 | $44.41 | $0.72 | 19.7% | -3.0% |
| KING | $15.85 | $14.62 | $0.00 | -7.8% | -3.0% |
| NSU | $3.43 | $3.31 | $0.08 | -1.2% | -3.0% |
| PPC | $22.65 | $20.92 | $0.00 | -7.6% | -3.0% |
| Totals | 3.0% | -3.0% | |||
| 7/1/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BKE | $46.45 | $35.80 | $0.23 | -22.4% | -3.0% |
| CA | $29.34 | $29.00 | $0.25 | -0.3% | -3.0% |
| MSFT | $44.42 | $47.11 | $0.31 | 6.8% | -3.0% |
| QCOM | $62.95 | $57.78 | $0.48 | -7.5% | -3.0% |
| VIAB | $64.75 | $47.48 | $0.40 | -26.1% | -3.0% |
| Totals | -9.9% | -3.0% | |||
| 10/1/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BKE | $36.83 | $35.80 | $0.00 | -2.8% | 5.1% |
| IQNT | $21.96 | $20.38 | $0.00 | -7.2% | 5.1% |
| QCOM | $53.45 | $57.78 | $0.00 | 8.1% | 5.1% |
| CSCO | $26.37 | $27.91 | $0.21 | 6.6% | 5.1% |
| CA | $27.30 | $29.00 | $0.00 | 6.2% | 5.1% |
| Totals | 2.2% | 5.1% |
| Category/Tranche | October | January | April | July | Total |
| Initial Investment | 249,820 | 249,939 | 250,180 | 249,728 | 999,667 |
| Current Tranche | 2.2% | 22.1% | 3.0% | -9.9% | 4.3% |
| Previous Tranche | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Tranche -2 | 0.0% | - | - | - | 0.0% |
| MFI Overall Gain | 2.7% | 22.1% | 3.0% | -9.9% | 4.5% |
| Current Balance | 256,477 | 305,111 | 257,729 | 225,010 | 1,044,325 |
| R3K Current Tranche | 5.1% | -1.8% | -3.0% | -3.0% | -0.7% |
| R3K Overall Gain | 4.6% | -1.8% | -3.0% | -3.0% | -0.7% |
| R3K Balance | 261,230 | 245,478 | 242,627 | 242,285 | 991,620 |
| Annualized IRR | 2.6% | 29.4% | 5.8% | -31.2% | 6.9% |
So you can see if I started with $250,000 in each tranche, I'd be up to 1,044,325 right now versus 991,620 in R3K.
All Formula Stocks
Here is a listing of all formula stocks since end of September 2014:
| Date | Stock | Initial Price | End Price | Percent Change | Mkt Cap | Yield |
| 9/26/2014 | HRB | $ 30.52 | $ 36.05 | 18% | 8,602 | 2.6% |
| 9/26/2014 | BAH | $ 22.94 | $ 27.17 | 18% | 3,601 | 10.6% |
| 9/26/2014 | BKE | $ 42.81 | $ 37.44 | -13% | 2,220 | 4.9% |
| 9/26/2014 | CA | $ 26.97 | $ 27.36 | 1% | 12,278 | 3.7% |
| 9/26/2014 | CSCO | $ 24.27 | $ 26.03 | 7% | 126,375 | 3.0% |
| 9/26/2014 | COH | $ 34.96 | $ 28.48 | -19% | 9,845 | 3.9% |
| 9/26/2014 | GME | $ 40.65 | $ 41.00 | 1% | 4,742 | 3.2% |
| 9/26/2014 | KING | $ 12.04 | $ 13.40 | 11% | 4,092 | 3.8% |
| 9/26/2014 | NUS | $ 43.20 | $ 41.21 | -5% | 2,641 | 3.2% |
| 9/26/2014 | PDLI | $ 6.93 | $ 5.22 | -25% | 1,317 | 8.7% |
| 9/26/2014 | RGR | $ 47.43 | $ 59.70 | 26% | 938 | 3.4% |
| 10/31/2014 | HRB | $ 31.53 | $ 35.40 | 12% | 8,888 | 2.5% |
| 10/31/2014 | BKE | $ 46.47 | $ 35.80 | -23% | 2,386 | 4.5% |
| 10/31/2014 | CA | $ 28.10 | $ 29.00 | 3% | 12,796 | 3.6% |
| 10/31/2014 | CSCO | $ 23.74 | $ 27.91 | 18% | 124,968 | 3.1% |
| 10/31/2014 | COH | $ 33.08 | $ 31.28 | -5% | 9,455 | 4.1% |
| 10/31/2014 | GME | $ 41.35 | $ 44.41 | 7% | 4,823 | 3.1% |
| 10/31/2014 | KING | $ 10.72 | $ 14.62 | 36% | 3,645 | 4.3% |
| 10/31/2014 | NUS | $ 51.25 | $ 36.64 | -29% | 3,133 | 2.6% |
| 10/31/2014 | OMC | $ 69.94 | $ 70.94 | 1% | 17,834 | 2.6% |
| 10/31/2014 | PDLI | $ 7.79 | $ 5.24 | -33% | 1,480 | 7.7% |
| 10/31/2014 | PBI | $ 23.94 | $ 20.81 | -13% | 4,963 | 3.1% |
| 10/31/2014 | RGR | $ 40.92 | $ 59.99 | 47% | 809 | 5.0% |
| 10/31/2014 | TSRA | $ 29.80 | $ 33.22 | 11% | 1,587 | 3.1% |
| 11/28/2014 | HRB | $ 32.83 | $ 35.40 | 8% | 9,254 | 2.4% |
| 11/28/2014 | BKE | $ 48.22 | $ 35.80 | -26% | 2,476 | 4.3% |
| 11/28/2014 | CA | $ 30.38 | $ 29.00 | -5% | 13,716 | 3.3% |
| 11/28/2014 | CSCO | $ 26.82 | $ 27.91 | 4% | 140,024 | 2.8% |
| 11/28/2014 | COH | $ 35.72 | $ 31.28 | -12% | 10,230 | 3.8% |
| 11/28/2014 | CJREF | $ 17.90 | $ 10.71 | -40% | 1,622 | 5.5% |
| 11/28/2014 | GME | $ 36.84 | $ 44.41 | 21% | 4,273 | 4.3% |
| 11/28/2014 | IQNT | $ 17.98 | $ 20.38 | 13% | 610 | 3.3% |
| 11/28/2014 | KING | $ 14.34 | $ 14.62 | 2% | 4,905 | 3.2% |
| 11/28/2014 | NUS | $ 40.91 | $ 36.64 | -10% | 2,479 | 3.4% |
| 11/28/2014 | PDLI | $ 7.54 | $ 5.24 | -31% | 1,379 | 8.0% |
| 11/28/2014 | PBI | $ 24.00 | $ 20.81 | -13% | 4,948 | 3.1% |
| 11/28/2014 | RGR | $ 37.53 | $ 59.99 | 60% | 740 | 4.3% |
| 11/28/2014 | TSRA | $ 33.62 | $ 33.22 | -1% | 1,801 | 2.7% |
| 12/31/2014 | BKE | $ 49.48 | $ 35.80 | -28% | 2,583 | 4.2% |
| 12/31/2014 | CA | $ 29.69 | $ 29.00 | -2% | 13,558 | 3.4% |
| 12/31/2014 | CSCO | $ 26.99 | $ 27.91 | 3% | 143,672 | 2.7% |
| 12/31/2014 | COH | $ 36.49 | $ 31.28 | -14% | 10,434 | 3.7% |
| 12/31/2014 | GME | $ 32.93 | $ 44.41 | 35% | 3,698 | 4.0% |
| 12/31/2014 | IQNT | $ 19.16 | $ 20.38 | 6% | 642 | 3.1% |
| 12/31/2014 | KING | $ 14.45 | $ 14.62 | 1% | 5,040 | 3.2% |
| 12/31/2014 | NUS | $ 42.77 | $ 36.64 | -14% | 2,626 | 3.2% |
| 12/31/2014 | PDLI | $ 7.17 | $ 5.24 | -27% | 1,287 | 8.4% |
| 12/31/2014 | PBI | $ 23.76 | $ 20.81 | -12% | 4,960 | 3.2% |
| 12/31/2014 | RGR | $ 34.12 | $ 59.99 | 76% | 667 | 4.7% |
| 1/30/2015 | BKE | $ 50.55 | $ 35.80 | -29% | 2,457 | 7.2% |
| 1/30/2015 | CA | $ 29.55 | $ 29.00 | -2% | 13,281 | 3.4% |
| 1/30/2015 | CSCO | $ 25.76 | $ 27.91 | 8% | 133,565 | 3.0% |
| 1/30/2015 | COH | $ 36.13 | $ 31.28 | -13% | 10,250 | 3.7% |
| 1/30/2015 | GME | $ 34.35 | $ 44.41 | 29% | 3,853 | 3.8% |
| 1/30/2015 | KING | $ 12.41 | $ 14.62 | 18% | 4,245 | 3.7% |
| 1/30/2015 | MSFT | $ 39.59 | $ 47.11 | 19% | 332,007 | 2.9% |
| 1/30/2015 | NUS | $ 40.11 | $ 36.64 | -9% | 2,430 | 3.4% |
| 1/30/2015 | PDLI | $ 6.78 | $ 5.24 | -23% | 1,217 | 8.8% |
| 1/30/2015 | QCOM | $ 61.16 | $ 57.78 | -6% | 103,309 | 2.7% |
| 1/30/2015 | RTN | $ 98.14 | $ 111.46 | 14% | 30,925 | 2.5% |
| 1/30/2015 | RGR | $ 39.81 | $ 59.99 | 51% | 784 | 4.1% |
| 2/27/2015 | BKE | $ 50.06 | $ 35.80 | -28% | 2,433 | 7.3% |
| 2/27/2015 | CA | $ 31.96 | $ 29.00 | -9% | 14,254 | 3.1% |
| 2/27/2015 | CSCO | $ 28.83 | $ 27.91 | -3% | 150,708 | 2.6% |
| 2/27/2015 | GME | $ 36.02 | $ 44.41 | 23% | 4,041 | 3.7% |
| 2/27/2015 | KING | $ 14.85 | $ 14.62 | -2% | 5,084 | 3.1% |
| 2/27/2015 | MSFT | $ 43.28 | $ 47.11 | 9% | 360,359 | 2.7% |
| 2/27/2015 | PDLI | $ 6.49 | $ 5.24 | -19% | 1,125 | 9.2% |
| 2/27/2015 | PPC | $ 27.43 | $ 20.92 | -24% | 7,104 | 21.0% |
| 2/27/2015 | PBI | $ 22.78 | $ 20.81 | -9% | 4,657 | 3.3% |
| 2/27/2015 | RGR | $ 51.20 | $ 59.99 | 17% | 974 | 3.2% |
| 3/27/2015 | HRB | $ 31.64 | $ 35.40 | 12% | 8,816 | 2.5% |
| 3/27/2015 | CSCO | $ 26.50 | $ 27.91 | 5% | 138,553 | 3.2% |
| 3/27/2015 | GME | $ 37.72 | $ 44.41 | 18% | 4,130 | 3.8% |
| 3/27/2015 | KING | $ 15.53 | $ 14.62 | -6% | 5,000 | 6.1% |
| 3/27/2015 | MSFT | $ 40.44 | $ 47.11 | 16% | 336,692 | 3.1% |
| 3/27/2015 | PDLI | $ 6.69 | $ 5.24 | -22% | 1,135 | 9.0% |
| 3/27/2015 | PPC | $ 23.71 | $ 20.92 | -12% | 6,141 | 24.3% |
| 3/27/2015 | PBI | $ 22.94 | $ 20.81 | -9% | 4,689 | 3.3% |
| 3/27/2015 | QCOM | $ 66.01 | $ 57.78 | -12% | 110,859 | 2.5% |
| 4/24/2015 | HRB | $ 31.87 | $ 35.40 | 11% | 8,880 | 2.5% |
| 4/24/2015 | BKE | $ 47.70 | $ 35.80 | -25% | 2,308 | 8.2% |
| 4/24/2015 | CSCO | $ 28.37 | $ 27.91 | -2% | 147,184 | 3.0% |
| 4/24/2015 | GME | $ 40.03 | $ 44.41 | 11% | 4,384 | 3.6% |
| 4/24/2015 | IQNT | $ 19.01 | $ 20.38 | 7% | 648 | 3.2% |
| 4/24/2015 | KING | $ 16.76 | $ 14.62 | -13% | 5,396 | 5.5% |
| 4/24/2015 | NSU | $ 3.73 | $ 3.31 | -11% | 763 | 4.3% |
| 4/24/2015 | PDLI | $ 6.67 | $ 5.24 | -21% | 1,131 | 9.0% |
| 4/24/2015 | PPC | $ 23.62 | $ 20.92 | -11% | 6,118 | 24.4% |
| 4/24/2015 | PBI | $ 22.52 | $ 20.81 | -8% | 4,605 | 3.3% |
| 4/24/2015 | QCOM | $ 67.20 | $ 57.78 | -14% | 111,436 | 2.9% |
| 4/24/2015 | TSRA | $ 37.96 | $ 33.22 | -12% | 2,029 | 3.2% |
| 5/29/2015 | HRB | $ 31.34 | $ 35.40 | 13% | 8,734 | 2.6% |
| 5/29/2015 | CA | $ 30.16 | $ 29.00 | -4% | 13,261 | 3.3% |
| 5/29/2015 | CPLA | $ 52.50 | $ 52.97 | 1% | 651 | 2.8% |
| 5/29/2015 | CSCO | $ 28.85 | $ 27.91 | -3% | 149,276 | 2.9% |
| 5/29/2015 | GME | $ 42.68 | $ 44.41 | 4% | 4,675 | 3.4% |
| 5/29/2015 | NSU | $ 4.07 | $ 3.31 | -19% | 833 | 3.9% |
| 5/29/2015 | PDLI | $ 6.35 | $ 5.24 | -17% | 1,092 | 9.4% |
| 5/29/2015 | PPC | $ 25.58 | $ 20.92 | -18% | 6,626 | 22.6% |
| 5/29/2015 | PBI | $ 21.66 | $ 20.81 | -4% | 4,392 | 3.5% |
| 5/29/2015 | QCOM | $ 68.62 | $ 57.78 | -16% | 113,787 | 2.8% |
| 5/29/2015 | VIAB | $ 65.89 | $ 47.48 | -28% | 26,558 | 2.4% |
| 6/26/2015 | HRB | $ 30.41 | $ 35.40 | 16% | 8,418 | 2.6% |
| 6/26/2015 | CA | $ 29.61 | $ 29.00 | -2% | 13,017 | 3.4% |
| 6/26/2015 | CPLA | $ 55.18 | $ 52.97 | -4% | 680 | 2.7% |
| 6/26/2015 | CSCO | $ 27.84 | $ 27.91 | 0% | 144,030 | 3.0% |
| 6/26/2015 | GME | $ 43.66 | $ 44.41 | 2% | 4,743 | 3.3% |
| 6/26/2015 | IQNT | $ 18.76 | $ 20.38 | 9% | 634 | 3.2% |
| 6/26/2015 | KING | $ 14.08 | $ 14.62 | 4% | 4,440 | 6.7% |
| 6/26/2015 | NSU | $ 3.92 | $ 3.31 | -15% | 793 | 4.1% |
| 6/26/2015 | OMC | $ 70.33 | $ 70.94 | 1% | 17,307 | 2.8% |
| 6/26/2015 | PDLI | $ 6.33 | $ 5.24 | -17% | 1,065 | 9.5% |
| 6/26/2015 | PPC | $ 23.92 | $ 20.92 | -13% | 6,196 | 24.1% |
| 6/26/2015 | PBI | $ 21.30 | $ 20.81 | -2% | 4,319 | 3.5% |
| 6/26/2015 | QCOM | $ 64.13 | $ 57.78 | -10% | 105,606 | 3.0% |
| 6/26/2015 | RTN | $ 96.52 | $ 111.46 | 15% | 29,914 | 2.8% |
| 6/26/2015 | VIAB | $ 65.84 | $ 47.48 | -28% | 26,379 | 2.4% |
| 7/30/2015 | BBY | $ 31.92 | $ 36.95 | 16% | 11,346 | 2.9% |
| 7/30/2015 | HRB | $ 33.15 | $ 35.40 | 7% | 9,178 | 2.4% |
| 7/30/2015 | CA | $ 29.14 | $ 29.00 | 0% | 12,827 | 3.4% |
| 7/30/2015 | CPLA | $ 50.72 | $ 52.97 | 4% | 619 | 2.9% |
| 7/30/2015 | CSCO | $ 28.07 | $ 27.91 | -1% | 144,132 | 3.0% |
| 7/30/2015 | COH | $ 30.94 | $ 31.28 | 1% | 8,642 | 4.4% |
| 7/30/2015 | GME | $ 45.76 | $ 44.41 | -3% | 4,944 | 3.1% |
| 7/30/2015 | KING | $ 15.47 | $ 14.62 | -5% | 4,878 | 6.1% |
| 7/30/2015 | NSU | $ 3.38 | $ 3.31 | -2% | 685 | 4.7% |
| 7/30/2015 | PDLI | $ 5.60 | $ 5.24 | -6% | 942 | 10.7% |
| 7/30/2015 | PPC | $ 21.92 | $ 20.92 | -5% | 5,692 | 26.3% |
| 7/30/2015 | PBI | $ 20.27 | $ 20.81 | 3% | 4,131 | 3.7% |
| 7/30/2015 | QCOM | $ 63.87 | $ 57.78 | -10% | 101,639 | 3.0% |
| 7/30/2015 | VIAB | $ 55.86 | $ 47.48 | -15% | 22,381 | 2.9% |
| 8/28/2015 | BKE | $ 42.59 | $ 35.80 | -16% | 2,067 | 9.2% |
| 8/28/2015 | CA | $ 27.26 | $ 29.00 | 6% | 11,885 | 3.7% |
| 8/28/2015 | CSCO | $ 25.79 | $ 27.91 | 8% | 131,638 | 3.3% |
| 8/28/2015 | IQNT | $ 18.59 | $ 20.38 | 10% | 625 | 3.2% |
| 8/28/2015 | KING | $ 13.50 | $ 14.62 | 8% | 4,250 | 7.0% |
| 8/28/2015 | PDLI | $ 5.49 | $ 5.24 | -5% | 924 | 10.9% |
| 8/28/2015 | PPC | $ 20.81 | $ 20.92 | 1% | 5,404 | 27.7% |
| 8/28/2015 | PBI | $ 19.95 | $ 20.81 | 4% | 4,030 | 3.8% |
| 8/28/2015 | QCOM | $ 56.97 | $ 57.78 | 1% | 90,656 | 3.4% |
| 8/28/2015 | VIAB | $ 40.54 | $ 47.48 | 17% | 16,278 | 3.9% |
| 9/25/2015 | BKE | $ 37.44 | $ 35.80 | -4% | 1,817 | 10.5% |
| 9/25/2015 | CA | $ 27.36 | $ 29.00 | 6% | 11,929 | 3.7% |
| 9/25/2015 | CPLA | $ 51.62 | $ 52.97 | 3% | 625 | 2.9% |
| 9/25/2015 | CSCO | $ 25.82 | $ 27.91 | 8% | 132,337 | 3.3% |
| 9/25/2015 | GME | $ 41.00 | $ 44.41 | 8% | 4,342 | 3.5% |
| 9/25/2015 | HPQ | $ 25.01 | $ 29.30 | 17% | 45,043 | 2.8% |
| 9/25/2015 | IQNT | $ 22.54 | $ 20.38 | -10% | 757 | 2.7% |
| 9/25/2015 | PDLI | $ 5.22 | $ 5.24 | 0% | 854 | 11.5% |
| 9/25/2015 | PPC | $ 21.03 | $ 20.92 | -1% | 5,461 | 27.4% |
| 9/25/2015 | PBI | $ 20.12 | $ 20.81 | 3% | 4,064 | 3.7% |
| 9/25/2015 | QCOM | $ 53.22 | $ 57.78 | 9% | 83,981 | 3.6% |
| 9/25/2015 | VIAB | $ 43.52 | $ 47.48 | 9% | 17,317 | 3.7% |
Now that is a lot of numbers. Here is a table showing how they have done in composite by buy date:
| Date | Formula Change | Index Change |
| 9/26/2014 | 2.1% | -0.9% |
| 10/31/2014 | 2.6% | 1.7% |
| 11/28/2014 | -2.2% | -0.8% |
| 12/31/2014 | 2.2% | -0.7% |
| 1/30/2015 | 4.8% | 2.1% |
| 2/27/2015 | -4.5% | -3.4% |
| 3/27/2015 | -1.1% | -2.0% |
| 4/24/2015 | -7.4% | -4.6% |
| 5/29/2015 | -8.3% | -4.2% |
| 6/26/2015 | -2.9% | -4.3% |
| 7/30/2015 | -1.2% | -4.3% |
| 8/28/2015 | 3.5% | 1.2% |
| 9/25/2015 | 4.1% | 4.3% |
| Total | -0.6% | -1.2% |
So it has been "working", although by a slim margin. What happens when you pull out PDLI, which I have been doing in my selections every quarter as I knew their revenue stream was melting away?
| Date | Formula Change | Index Change |
| 9/26/2014 | 4.8% | -0.9% |
| 10/31/2014 | 5.5% | 1.7% |
| 11/28/2014 | 0.0% | -0.8% |
| 12/31/2014 | 5.1% | -0.7% |
| 1/30/2015 | 7.3% | 2.1% |
| 2/27/2015 | -2.8% | -3.4% |
| 3/27/2015 | 1.5% | -2.0% |
| 4/24/2015 | -6.1% | -4.6% |
| 5/29/2015 | -7.4% | -4.2% |
| 6/26/2015 | -1.9% | -4.3% |
| 7/30/2015 | -0.8% | -4.3% |
| 8/28/2015 | 4.4% | 1.2% |
| 9/25/2015 | 4.4% | 4.3% |
| Total | 1.1% | -1.2% |
Interesting - now it is working better. This assumes of course that you can pick and weed out a "bad" stock. I have been successful thus far, but I also know that is why I went the random approach, that my ability to do that has it's limitations.
Sorted By Stock
Regarding debate on whether to buy same stock in more than one tranche, I have argued it is a good idea as if a stock declines a lot, it may be a better buy later on. That is one of MFIs self correcting features. Of course, it can cause you to be over weight in a bad stock (thing IAR in 2009).
| Date | Stock | Initial Price | End Price | Percent Change | Mkt Cap | Yield |
| 9/26/2014 | BAH | $ 22.94 | $ 27.17 | 18% | 3,601 | 10.6% |
| 7/30/2015 | BBY | $ 31.92 | $ 36.95 | 16% | 11,346 | 2.9% |
| 9/26/2014 | BKE | $ 42.81 | $ 37.44 | -13% | 2,220 | 4.9% |
| 10/31/2014 | BKE | $ 46.47 | $ 35.80 | -23% | 2,386 | 4.5% |
| 11/28/2014 | BKE | $ 48.22 | $ 35.80 | -26% | 2,476 | 4.3% |
| 12/31/2014 | BKE | $ 49.48 | $ 35.80 | -28% | 2,583 | 4.2% |
| 1/30/2015 | BKE | $ 50.55 | $ 35.80 | -29% | 2,457 | 7.2% |
| 2/27/2015 | BKE | $ 50.06 | $ 35.80 | -28% | 2,433 | 7.3% |
| 4/24/2015 | BKE | $ 47.70 | $ 35.80 | -25% | 2,308 | 8.2% |
| 8/28/2015 | BKE | $ 42.59 | $ 35.80 | -16% | 2,067 | 9.2% |
| 9/25/2015 | BKE | $ 37.44 | $ 35.80 | -4% | 1,817 | 10.5% |
| 9/26/2014 | CA | $ 26.97 | $ 27.36 | 1% | 12,278 | 3.7% |
| 10/31/2014 | CA | $ 28.10 | $ 29.00 | 3% | 12,796 | 3.6% |
| 11/28/2014 | CA | $ 30.38 | $ 29.00 | -5% | 13,716 | 3.3% |
| 12/31/2014 | CA | $ 29.69 | $ 29.00 | -2% | 13,558 | 3.4% |
| 1/30/2015 | CA | $ 29.55 | $ 29.00 | -2% | 13,281 | 3.4% |
| 2/27/2015 | CA | $ 31.96 | $ 29.00 | -9% | 14,254 | 3.1% |
| 5/29/2015 | CA | $ 30.16 | $ 29.00 | -4% | 13,261 | 3.3% |
| 6/26/2015 | CA | $ 29.61 | $ 29.00 | -2% | 13,017 | 3.4% |
| 7/30/2015 | CA | $ 29.14 | $ 29.00 | 0% | 12,827 | 3.4% |
| 8/28/2015 | CA | $ 27.26 | $ 29.00 | 6% | 11,885 | 3.7% |
| 9/25/2015 | CA | $ 27.36 | $ 29.00 | 6% | 11,929 | 3.7% |
| 11/28/2014 | CJREF | $ 17.90 | $ 10.71 | -40% | 1,622 | 5.5% |
| 9/26/2014 | COH | $ 34.96 | $ 28.48 | -19% | 9,845 | 3.9% |
| 10/31/2014 | COH | $ 33.08 | $ 31.28 | -5% | 9,455 | 4.1% |
| 11/28/2014 | COH | $ 35.72 | $ 31.28 | -12% | 10,230 | 3.8% |
| 12/31/2014 | COH | $ 36.49 | $ 31.28 | -14% | 10,434 | 3.7% |
| 1/30/2015 | COH | $ 36.13 | $ 31.28 | -13% | 10,250 | 3.7% |
| 7/30/2015 | COH | $ 30.94 | $ 31.28 | 1% | 8,642 | 4.4% |
| 5/29/2015 | CPLA | $ 52.50 | $ 52.97 | 1% | 651 | 2.8% |
| 6/26/2015 | CPLA | $ 55.18 | $ 52.97 | -4% | 680 | 2.7% |
| 7/30/2015 | CPLA | $ 50.72 | $ 52.97 | 4% | 619 | 2.9% |
| 9/25/2015 | CPLA | $ 51.62 | $ 52.97 | 3% | 625 | 2.9% |
| 9/26/2014 | CSCO | $ 24.27 | $ 26.03 | 7% | 126,375 | 3.0% |
| 10/31/2014 | CSCO | $ 23.74 | $ 27.91 | 18% | 124,968 | 3.1% |
| 11/28/2014 | CSCO | $ 26.82 | $ 27.91 | 4% | 140,024 | 2.8% |
| 12/31/2014 | CSCO | $ 26.99 | $ 27.91 | 3% | 143,672 | 2.7% |
| 1/30/2015 | CSCO | $ 25.76 | $ 27.91 | 8% | 133,565 | 3.0% |
| 2/27/2015 | CSCO | $ 28.83 | $ 27.91 | -3% | 150,708 | 2.6% |
| 3/27/2015 | CSCO | $ 26.50 | $ 27.91 | 5% | 138,553 | 3.2% |
| 4/24/2015 | CSCO | $ 28.37 | $ 27.91 | -2% | 147,184 | 3.0% |
| 5/29/2015 | CSCO | $ 28.85 | $ 27.91 | -3% | 149,276 | 2.9% |
| 6/26/2015 | CSCO | $ 27.84 | $ 27.91 | 0% | 144,030 | 3.0% |
| 7/30/2015 | CSCO | $ 28.07 | $ 27.91 | -1% | 144,132 | 3.0% |
| 8/28/2015 | CSCO | $ 25.79 | $ 27.91 | 8% | 131,638 | 3.3% |
| 9/25/2015 | CSCO | $ 25.82 | $ 27.91 | 8% | 132,337 | 3.3% |
| 9/26/2014 | GME | $ 40.65 | $ 41.00 | 1% | 4,742 | 3.2% |
| 10/31/2014 | GME | $ 41.35 | $ 44.41 | 7% | 4,823 | 3.1% |
| 11/28/2014 | GME | $ 36.84 | $ 44.41 | 21% | 4,273 | 4.3% |
| 12/31/2014 | GME | $ 32.93 | $ 44.41 | 35% | 3,698 | 4.0% |
| 1/30/2015 | GME | $ 34.35 | $ 44.41 | 29% | 3,853 | 3.8% |
| 2/27/2015 | GME | $ 36.02 | $ 44.41 | 23% | 4,041 | 3.7% |
| 3/27/2015 | GME | $ 37.72 | $ 44.41 | 18% | 4,130 | 3.8% |
| 4/24/2015 | GME | $ 40.03 | $ 44.41 | 11% | 4,384 | 3.6% |
| 5/29/2015 | GME | $ 42.68 | $ 44.41 | 4% | 4,675 | 3.4% |
| 6/26/2015 | GME | $ 43.66 | $ 44.41 | 2% | 4,743 | 3.3% |
| 7/30/2015 | GME | $ 45.76 | $ 44.41 | -3% | 4,944 | 3.1% |
| 9/25/2015 | GME | $ 41.00 | $ 44.41 | 8% | 4,342 | 3.5% |
| 9/25/2015 | HPQ | $ 25.01 | $ 29.30 | 17% | 45,043 | 2.8% |
| 9/26/2014 | HRB | $ 30.52 | $ 36.05 | 18% | 8,602 | 2.6% |
| 10/31/2014 | HRB | $ 31.53 | $ 35.40 | 12% | 8,888 | 2.5% |
| 11/28/2014 | HRB | $ 32.83 | $ 35.40 | 8% | 9,254 | 2.4% |
| 3/27/2015 | HRB | $ 31.64 | $ 35.40 | 12% | 8,816 | 2.5% |
| 4/24/2015 | HRB | $ 31.87 | $ 35.40 | 11% | 8,880 | 2.5% |
| 5/29/2015 | HRB | $ 31.34 | $ 35.40 | 13% | 8,734 | 2.6% |
| 6/26/2015 | HRB | $ 30.41 | $ 35.40 | 16% | 8,418 | 2.6% |
| 7/30/2015 | HRB | $ 33.15 | $ 35.40 | 7% | 9,178 | 2.4% |
| 11/28/2014 | IQNT | $ 17.98 | $ 20.38 | 13% | 610 | 3.3% |
| 12/31/2014 | IQNT | $ 19.16 | $ 20.38 | 6% | 642 | 3.1% |
| 4/24/2015 | IQNT | $ 19.01 | $ 20.38 | 7% | 648 | 3.2% |
| 6/26/2015 | IQNT | $ 18.76 | $ 20.38 | 9% | 634 | 3.2% |
| 8/28/2015 | IQNT | $ 18.59 | $ 20.38 | 10% | 625 | 3.2% |
| 9/25/2015 | IQNT | $ 22.54 | $ 20.38 | -10% | 757 | 2.7% |
| 9/26/2014 | KING | $ 12.04 | $ 13.40 | 11% | 4,092 | 3.8% |
| 10/31/2014 | KING | $ 10.72 | $ 14.62 | 36% | 3,645 | 4.3% |
| 11/28/2014 | KING | $ 14.34 | $ 14.62 | 2% | 4,905 | 3.2% |
| 12/31/2014 | KING | $ 14.45 | $ 14.62 | 1% | 5,040 | 3.2% |
| 1/30/2015 | KING | $ 12.41 | $ 14.62 | 18% | 4,245 | 3.7% |
| 2/27/2015 | KING | $ 14.85 | $ 14.62 | -2% | 5,084 | 3.1% |
| 3/27/2015 | KING | $ 15.53 | $ 14.62 | -6% | 5,000 | 6.1% |
| 4/24/2015 | KING | $ 16.76 | $ 14.62 | -13% | 5,396 | 5.5% |
| 6/26/2015 | KING | $ 14.08 | $ 14.62 | 4% | 4,440 | 6.7% |
| 7/30/2015 | KING | $ 15.47 | $ 14.62 | -5% | 4,878 | 6.1% |
| 8/28/2015 | KING | $ 13.50 | $ 14.62 | 8% | 4,250 | 7.0% |
| 1/30/2015 | MSFT | $ 39.59 | $ 47.11 | 19% | 332,007 | 2.9% |
| 2/27/2015 | MSFT | $ 43.28 | $ 47.11 | 9% | 360,359 | 2.7% |
| 3/27/2015 | MSFT | $ 40.44 | $ 47.11 | 16% | 336,692 | 3.1% |
| 4/24/2015 | NSU | $ 3.73 | $ 3.31 | -11% | 763 | 4.3% |
| 5/29/2015 | NSU | $ 4.07 | $ 3.31 | -19% | 833 | 3.9% |
| 6/26/2015 | NSU | $ 3.92 | $ 3.31 | -15% | 793 | 4.1% |
| 7/30/2015 | NSU | $ 3.38 | $ 3.31 | -2% | 685 | 4.7% |
| 9/26/2014 | NUS | $ 43.20 | $ 41.21 | -5% | 2,641 | 3.2% |
| 10/31/2014 | NUS | $ 51.25 | $ 36.64 | -29% | 3,133 | 2.6% |
| 11/28/2014 | NUS | $ 40.91 | $ 36.64 | -10% | 2,479 | 3.4% |
| 12/31/2014 | NUS | $ 42.77 | $ 36.64 | -14% | 2,626 | 3.2% |
| 1/30/2015 | NUS | $ 40.11 | $ 36.64 | -9% | 2,430 | 3.4% |
| 10/31/2014 | OMC | $ 69.94 | $ 70.94 | 1% | 17,834 | 2.6% |
| 6/26/2015 | OMC | $ 70.33 | $ 70.94 | 1% | 17,307 | 2.8% |
| 10/31/2014 | PBI | $ 23.94 | $ 20.81 | -13% | 4,963 | 3.1% |
| 11/28/2014 | PBI | $ 24.00 | $ 20.81 | -13% | 4,948 | 3.1% |
| 12/31/2014 | PBI | $ 23.76 | $ 20.81 | -12% | 4,960 | 3.2% |
| 2/27/2015 | PBI | $ 22.78 | $ 20.81 | -9% | 4,657 | 3.3% |
| 3/27/2015 | PBI | $ 22.94 | $ 20.81 | -9% | 4,689 | 3.3% |
| 4/24/2015 | PBI | $ 22.52 | $ 20.81 | -8% | 4,605 | 3.3% |
| 5/29/2015 | PBI | $ 21.66 | $ 20.81 | -4% | 4,392 | 3.5% |
| 6/26/2015 | PBI | $ 21.30 | $ 20.81 | -2% | 4,319 | 3.5% |
| 7/30/2015 | PBI | $ 20.27 | $ 20.81 | 3% | 4,131 | 3.7% |
| 8/28/2015 | PBI | $ 19.95 | $ 20.81 | 4% | 4,030 | 3.8% |
| 9/25/2015 | PBI | $ 20.12 | $ 20.81 | 3% | 4,064 | 3.7% |
| 9/26/2014 | PDLI | $ 6.93 | $ 5.22 | -25% | 1,317 | 8.7% |
| 10/31/2014 | PDLI | $ 7.79 | $ 5.24 | -33% | 1,480 | 7.7% |
| 11/28/2014 | PDLI | $ 7.54 | $ 5.24 | -31% | 1,379 | 8.0% |
| 12/31/2014 | PDLI | $ 7.17 | $ 5.24 | -27% | 1,287 | 8.4% |
| 1/30/2015 | PDLI | $ 6.78 | $ 5.24 | -23% | 1,217 | 8.8% |
| 2/27/2015 | PDLI | $ 6.49 | $ 5.24 | -19% | 1,125 | 9.2% |
| 3/27/2015 | PDLI | $ 6.69 | $ 5.24 | -22% | 1,135 | 9.0% |
| 4/24/2015 | PDLI | $ 6.67 | $ 5.24 | -21% | 1,131 | 9.0% |
| 5/29/2015 | PDLI | $ 6.35 | $ 5.24 | -17% | 1,092 | 9.4% |
| 6/26/2015 | PDLI | $ 6.33 | $ 5.24 | -17% | 1,065 | 9.5% |
| 7/30/2015 | PDLI | $ 5.60 | $ 5.24 | -6% | 942 | 10.7% |
| 8/28/2015 | PDLI | $ 5.49 | $ 5.24 | -5% | 924 | 10.9% |
| 9/25/2015 | PDLI | $ 5.22 | $ 5.24 | 0% | 854 | 11.5% |
| 2/27/2015 | PPC | $ 27.43 | $ 20.92 | -24% | 7,104 | 21.0% |
| 3/27/2015 | PPC | $ 23.71 | $ 20.92 | -12% | 6,141 | 24.3% |
| 4/24/2015 | PPC | $ 23.62 | $ 20.92 | -11% | 6,118 | 24.4% |
| 5/29/2015 | PPC | $ 25.58 | $ 20.92 | -18% | 6,626 | 22.6% |
| 6/26/2015 | PPC | $ 23.92 | $ 20.92 | -13% | 6,196 | 24.1% |
| 7/30/2015 | PPC | $ 21.92 | $ 20.92 | -5% | 5,692 | 26.3% |
| 8/28/2015 | PPC | $ 20.81 | $ 20.92 | 1% | 5,404 | 27.7% |
| 9/25/2015 | PPC | $ 21.03 | $ 20.92 | -1% | 5,461 | 27.4% |
| 1/30/2015 | QCOM | $ 61.16 | $ 57.78 | -6% | 103,309 | 2.7% |
| 3/27/2015 | QCOM | $ 66.01 | $ 57.78 | -12% | 110,859 | 2.5% |
| 4/24/2015 | QCOM | $ 67.20 | $ 57.78 | -14% | 111,436 | 2.9% |
| 5/29/2015 | QCOM | $ 68.62 | $ 57.78 | -16% | 113,787 | 2.8% |
| 6/26/2015 | QCOM | $ 64.13 | $ 57.78 | -10% | 105,606 | 3.0% |
| 7/30/2015 | QCOM | $ 63.87 | $ 57.78 | -10% | 101,639 | 3.0% |
| 8/28/2015 | QCOM | $ 56.97 | $ 57.78 | 1% | 90,656 | 3.4% |
| 9/25/2015 | QCOM | $ 53.22 | $ 57.78 | 9% | 83,981 | 3.6% |
| 9/26/2014 | RGR | $ 47.43 | $ 59.70 | 26% | 938 | 3.4% |
| 10/31/2014 | RGR | $ 40.92 | $ 59.99 | 47% | 809 | 5.0% |
| 11/28/2014 | RGR | $ 37.53 | $ 59.99 | 60% | 740 | 4.3% |
| 12/31/2014 | RGR | $ 34.12 | $ 59.99 | 76% | 667 | 4.7% |
| 1/30/2015 | RGR | $ 39.81 | $ 59.99 | 51% | 784 | 4.1% |
| 2/27/2015 | RGR | $ 51.20 | $ 59.99 | 17% | 974 | 3.2% |
| 1/30/2015 | RTN | $ 98.14 | $ 111.46 | 14% | 30,925 | 2.5% |
| 6/26/2015 | RTN | $ 96.52 | $ 111.46 | 15% | 29,914 | 2.8% |
| 10/31/2014 | TSRA | $ 29.80 | $ 33.22 | 11% | 1,587 | 3.1% |
| 11/28/2014 | TSRA | $ 33.62 | $ 33.22 | -1% | 1,801 | 2.7% |
| 4/24/2015 | TSRA | $ 37.96 | $ 33.22 | -12% | 2,029 | 3.2% |
| 5/29/2015 | VIAB | $ 65.89 | $ 47.48 | -28% | 26,558 | 2.4% |
| 6/26/2015 | VIAB | $ 65.84 | $ 47.48 | -28% | 26,379 | 2.4% |
| 7/30/2015 | VIAB | $ 55.86 | $ 47.48 | -15% | 22,381 | 2.9% |
| 8/28/2015 | VIAB | $ 40.54 | $ 47.48 | 17% | 16,278 | 3.9% |
| 9/25/2015 | VIAB | $ 43.52 | $ 47.48 | 9% | 17,317 | 3.7% |
So if you look at BKE - thus far it has always been a bad stock to buy as it has been in steady decline for the 1+ year we have here. But a GME, which dropped quite a bit from September 2014 through early 1st q 2015 would have been great to buy as it has rebounded. Keep in mind that the self correcting feature due to rebalancing can really help. Suppose a stock drops 50% the first quarter (say between January and March 2015) and you have it in initial tranche. Then you get it in the next tranche (say March 31 2015) as well. Then it stays flat for rest of 2015 but then gets back to original price. Yes, you lose 50% on initial tranche, but you make 100% on second tranche.
You might say, "this doesn't happen". But it does. I wrote a blog in 2013 called "Anatomy of A MFI Stock" where I analyzed that very phenomena.
Interestingly, I identified in that blog 4 stocks that were beaten down that might be good picks and they went up 17% in next 12 months.
| Stock | 10/23/2013 | 10/23/2014 | Dividends | Change |
| ENZN | 1.71 | 1.02 | 0.45 | -14% |
| STRA | 47.92 | 66.30 | - | 38% |
| APOL | 27.63 | 25.47 | - | -8% |
| EGY | 5.46 | 8.31 | - | 52% |
Have a great day everyone.
Posts
2 comments:
Marsh,
Lots of good work. Might be interesting to look at this by quarter as the extra 90 days might make it a better pick.
Great work here. I really enjoy reading your blog.
I noticed that with the exception of BAH and PDLI, every stock with a double-digit yield has a negative return. Have you thought about placing a cap on the yield? You gave 2.4% as a minimum, but I wonder if there is a "sweet spot" range that maximizes yield and return. Curious to hear your thoughts.
Brad
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