Sunday, October 11, 2015

MFI Formula Approach - How Is It Working?

MFI Formula Analysis

As my readers know, I have started using an approach to MFI that I call the formula approach.  It starts with the screen of stocks > 100 million.  Then it parses that list, with stocks having to be > $600m market cap and a 2.4% dividend or greater.  I then am allowed to throw out one stock (I have always picked PDLI) and then I randomly select 5 names and hold  for a year.

One point of debate is whether I should allow stocks to "repeat" meaning appear in multiple tranches.  I have decided "yes" for me.  While this approach had worked very very well since 2006, since I started it last October - it has worked decently for me. I did want to step back and look at all stocks and all my tracking portfolios and see if it has worked.

here are my actual tranches:

10/1/2014 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
BAH $23.52 $26.21 $0.50 13.5% -0.6%
BKE $45.55 $36.97 $3.68 -10.8% -0.6%
CA $27.87 $27.30 $1.00 1.5% -0.6%
GME $41.70 $41.21 $1.41 2.2% -0.6%
NUS $44.56 $41.28 $1.40 -4.2% -0.6%
Totals 0.5% -0.6%
12/31/14 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
CA $30.83 $29.00 $0.75 -3.5% -1.8%
CSCO $28.36 $27.91 $0.82 1.3% -1.8%
RGR $34.81 $59.99 $0.85 74.8% -1.8%
GME $34.21 $44.41 $1.08 33.0% -1.8%
IQNT $19.87 $20.38 $0.45 4.8% -1.8%
Totals 22.1% -1.8%
3/31/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
HRB $31.99 $35.40 $0.40 11.9% -3.0%
GME $37.69 $44.41 $0.72 19.7% -3.0%
KING $15.85 $14.62 $0.00 -7.8% -3.0%
NSU $3.43 $3.31 $0.08 -1.2% -3.0%
PPC $22.65 $20.92 $0.00 -7.6% -3.0%
Totals 3.0% -3.0%
7/1/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
BKE $46.45 $35.80 $0.23 -22.4% -3.0%
CA $29.34 $29.00 $0.25 -0.3% -3.0%
MSFT $44.42 $47.11 $0.31 6.8% -3.0%
QCOM $62.95 $57.78 $0.48 -7.5% -3.0%
VIAB $64.75 $47.48 $0.40 -26.1% -3.0%
Totals -9.9% -3.0%
10/1/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
BKE $36.83 $35.80 $0.00 -2.8% 5.1%
IQNT $21.96 $20.38 $0.00 -7.2% 5.1%
QCOM $53.45 $57.78 $0.00 8.1% 5.1%
CSCO $26.37 $27.91 $0.21 6.6% 5.1%
CA $27.30 $29.00 $0.00 6.2% 5.1%
Totals 2.2% 5.1%


Category/Tranche October January April July Total
Initial Investment      249,820        249,939     250,180      249,728         999,667
Current Tranche 2.2% 22.1% 3.0% -9.9% 4.3%
Previous Tranche 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Tranche -2 0.0%                 -                 -                  -   0.0%
MFI Overall Gain 2.7% 22.1% 3.0% -9.9% 4.5%
Current Balance      256,477        305,111     257,729      225,010      1,044,325
R3K Current Tranche 5.1% -1.8% -3.0% -3.0% -0.7%
R3K Overall Gain 4.6% -1.8% -3.0% -3.0% -0.7%
R3K Balance      261,230        245,478     242,627      242,285         991,620
Annualized IRR 2.6% 29.4% 5.8% -31.2% 6.9%
So you can see if I started with $250,000 in each tranche, I'd be up to 1,044,325 right now versus 991,620 in R3K.

All Formula Stocks

Here is a listing of all formula stocks since end of September 2014:

Date Stock Initial Price End Price Percent Change  Mkt Cap  Yield
9/26/2014 HRB  $        30.52  $    36.05 18%             8,602 2.6%
9/26/2014 BAH  $        22.94  $    27.17 18%             3,601 10.6%
9/26/2014 BKE  $        42.81  $    37.44 -13%             2,220 4.9%
9/26/2014 CA  $        26.97  $    27.36 1%           12,278 3.7%
9/26/2014 CSCO  $        24.27  $    26.03 7%        126,375 3.0%
9/26/2014 COH  $        34.96  $    28.48 -19%             9,845 3.9%
9/26/2014 GME  $        40.65  $    41.00 1%             4,742 3.2%
9/26/2014 KING  $        12.04  $    13.40 11%             4,092 3.8%
9/26/2014 NUS  $        43.20  $    41.21 -5%             2,641 3.2%
9/26/2014 PDLI  $          6.93  $      5.22 -25%             1,317 8.7%
9/26/2014 RGR  $        47.43  $    59.70 26%                 938 3.4%
10/31/2014 HRB  $        31.53  $    35.40 12%             8,888 2.5%
10/31/2014 BKE  $        46.47  $    35.80 -23%             2,386 4.5%
10/31/2014 CA  $        28.10  $    29.00 3%           12,796 3.6%
10/31/2014 CSCO  $        23.74  $    27.91 18%        124,968 3.1%
10/31/2014 COH  $        33.08  $    31.28 -5%             9,455 4.1%
10/31/2014 GME  $        41.35  $    44.41 7%             4,823 3.1%
10/31/2014 KING  $        10.72  $    14.62 36%             3,645 4.3%
10/31/2014 NUS  $        51.25  $    36.64 -29%             3,133 2.6%
10/31/2014 OMC  $        69.94  $    70.94 1%           17,834 2.6%
10/31/2014 PDLI  $          7.79  $      5.24 -33%             1,480 7.7%
10/31/2014 PBI  $        23.94  $    20.81 -13%             4,963 3.1%
10/31/2014 RGR  $        40.92  $    59.99 47%                 809 5.0%
10/31/2014 TSRA  $        29.80  $    33.22 11%             1,587 3.1%
11/28/2014 HRB  $        32.83  $    35.40 8%             9,254 2.4%
11/28/2014 BKE  $        48.22  $    35.80 -26%             2,476 4.3%
11/28/2014 CA  $        30.38  $    29.00 -5%           13,716 3.3%
11/28/2014 CSCO  $        26.82  $    27.91 4%        140,024 2.8%
11/28/2014 COH  $        35.72  $    31.28 -12%           10,230 3.8%
11/28/2014 CJREF  $        17.90  $    10.71 -40%             1,622 5.5%
11/28/2014 GME  $        36.84  $    44.41 21%             4,273 4.3%
11/28/2014 IQNT  $        17.98  $    20.38 13%                 610 3.3%
11/28/2014 KING  $        14.34  $    14.62 2%             4,905 3.2%
11/28/2014 NUS  $        40.91  $    36.64 -10%             2,479 3.4%
11/28/2014 PDLI  $          7.54  $      5.24 -31%             1,379 8.0%
11/28/2014 PBI  $        24.00  $    20.81 -13%             4,948 3.1%
11/28/2014 RGR  $        37.53  $    59.99 60%                 740 4.3%
11/28/2014 TSRA  $        33.62  $    33.22 -1%             1,801 2.7%
12/31/2014 BKE  $        49.48  $    35.80 -28%             2,583 4.2%
12/31/2014 CA  $        29.69  $    29.00 -2%           13,558 3.4%
12/31/2014 CSCO  $        26.99  $    27.91 3%        143,672 2.7%
12/31/2014 COH  $        36.49  $    31.28 -14%           10,434 3.7%
12/31/2014 GME  $        32.93  $    44.41 35%             3,698 4.0%
12/31/2014 IQNT  $        19.16  $    20.38 6%                 642 3.1%
12/31/2014 KING  $        14.45  $    14.62 1%             5,040 3.2%
12/31/2014 NUS  $        42.77  $    36.64 -14%             2,626 3.2%
12/31/2014 PDLI  $          7.17  $      5.24 -27%             1,287 8.4%
12/31/2014 PBI  $        23.76  $    20.81 -12%             4,960 3.2%
12/31/2014 RGR  $        34.12  $    59.99 76%                 667 4.7%
1/30/2015 BKE  $        50.55  $    35.80 -29%             2,457 7.2%
1/30/2015 CA  $        29.55  $    29.00 -2%           13,281 3.4%
1/30/2015 CSCO  $        25.76  $    27.91 8%        133,565 3.0%
1/30/2015 COH  $        36.13  $    31.28 -13%           10,250 3.7%
1/30/2015 GME  $        34.35  $    44.41 29%             3,853 3.8%
1/30/2015 KING  $        12.41  $    14.62 18%             4,245 3.7%
1/30/2015 MSFT  $        39.59  $    47.11 19%        332,007 2.9%
1/30/2015 NUS  $        40.11  $    36.64 -9%             2,430 3.4%
1/30/2015 PDLI  $          6.78  $      5.24 -23%             1,217 8.8%
1/30/2015 QCOM  $        61.16  $    57.78 -6%        103,309 2.7%
1/30/2015 RTN  $        98.14  $  111.46 14%           30,925 2.5%
1/30/2015 RGR  $        39.81  $    59.99 51%                 784 4.1%
2/27/2015 BKE  $        50.06  $    35.80 -28%             2,433 7.3%
2/27/2015 CA  $        31.96  $    29.00 -9%           14,254 3.1%
2/27/2015 CSCO  $        28.83  $    27.91 -3%        150,708 2.6%
2/27/2015 GME  $        36.02  $    44.41 23%             4,041 3.7%
2/27/2015 KING  $        14.85  $    14.62 -2%             5,084 3.1%
2/27/2015 MSFT  $        43.28  $    47.11 9%        360,359 2.7%
2/27/2015 PDLI  $          6.49  $      5.24 -19%             1,125 9.2%
2/27/2015 PPC  $        27.43  $    20.92 -24%             7,104 21.0%
2/27/2015 PBI  $        22.78  $    20.81 -9%             4,657 3.3%
2/27/2015 RGR  $        51.20  $    59.99 17%                 974 3.2%
3/27/2015 HRB  $        31.64  $    35.40 12%             8,816 2.5%
3/27/2015 CSCO  $        26.50  $    27.91 5%        138,553 3.2%
3/27/2015 GME  $        37.72  $    44.41 18%             4,130 3.8%
3/27/2015 KING  $        15.53  $    14.62 -6%             5,000 6.1%
3/27/2015 MSFT  $        40.44  $    47.11 16%        336,692 3.1%
3/27/2015 PDLI  $          6.69  $      5.24 -22%             1,135 9.0%
3/27/2015 PPC  $        23.71  $    20.92 -12%             6,141 24.3%
3/27/2015 PBI  $        22.94  $    20.81 -9%             4,689 3.3%
3/27/2015 QCOM  $        66.01  $    57.78 -12%        110,859 2.5%
4/24/2015 HRB  $        31.87  $    35.40 11%             8,880 2.5%
4/24/2015 BKE  $        47.70  $    35.80 -25%             2,308 8.2%
4/24/2015 CSCO  $        28.37  $    27.91 -2%        147,184 3.0%
4/24/2015 GME  $        40.03  $    44.41 11%             4,384 3.6%
4/24/2015 IQNT  $        19.01  $    20.38 7%                 648 3.2%
4/24/2015 KING  $        16.76  $    14.62 -13%             5,396 5.5%
4/24/2015 NSU  $          3.73  $      3.31 -11%                 763 4.3%
4/24/2015 PDLI  $          6.67  $      5.24 -21%             1,131 9.0%
4/24/2015 PPC  $        23.62  $    20.92 -11%             6,118 24.4%
4/24/2015 PBI  $        22.52  $    20.81 -8%             4,605 3.3%
4/24/2015 QCOM  $        67.20  $    57.78 -14%        111,436 2.9%
4/24/2015 TSRA  $        37.96  $    33.22 -12%             2,029 3.2%
5/29/2015 HRB  $        31.34  $    35.40 13%             8,734 2.6%
5/29/2015 CA  $        30.16  $    29.00 -4%           13,261 3.3%
5/29/2015 CPLA  $        52.50  $    52.97 1%                 651 2.8%
5/29/2015 CSCO  $        28.85  $    27.91 -3%        149,276 2.9%
5/29/2015 GME  $        42.68  $    44.41 4%             4,675 3.4%
5/29/2015 NSU  $          4.07  $      3.31 -19%                 833 3.9%
5/29/2015 PDLI  $          6.35  $      5.24 -17%             1,092 9.4%
5/29/2015 PPC  $        25.58  $    20.92 -18%             6,626 22.6%
5/29/2015 PBI  $        21.66  $    20.81 -4%             4,392 3.5%
5/29/2015 QCOM  $        68.62  $    57.78 -16%        113,787 2.8%
5/29/2015 VIAB  $        65.89  $    47.48 -28%           26,558 2.4%
6/26/2015 HRB  $        30.41  $    35.40 16%             8,418 2.6%
6/26/2015 CA  $        29.61  $    29.00 -2%           13,017 3.4%
6/26/2015 CPLA  $        55.18  $    52.97 -4%                 680 2.7%
6/26/2015 CSCO  $        27.84  $    27.91 0%        144,030 3.0%
6/26/2015 GME  $        43.66  $    44.41 2%             4,743 3.3%
6/26/2015 IQNT  $        18.76  $    20.38 9%                 634 3.2%
6/26/2015 KING  $        14.08  $    14.62 4%             4,440 6.7%
6/26/2015 NSU  $          3.92  $      3.31 -15%                 793 4.1%
6/26/2015 OMC  $        70.33  $    70.94 1%           17,307 2.8%
6/26/2015 PDLI  $          6.33  $      5.24 -17%             1,065 9.5%
6/26/2015 PPC  $        23.92  $    20.92 -13%             6,196 24.1%
6/26/2015 PBI  $        21.30  $    20.81 -2%             4,319 3.5%
6/26/2015 QCOM  $        64.13  $    57.78 -10%        105,606 3.0%
6/26/2015 RTN  $        96.52  $  111.46 15%           29,914 2.8%
6/26/2015 VIAB  $        65.84  $    47.48 -28%           26,379 2.4%
7/30/2015 BBY  $        31.92  $    36.95 16%           11,346 2.9%
7/30/2015 HRB  $        33.15  $    35.40 7%             9,178 2.4%
7/30/2015 CA  $        29.14  $    29.00 0%           12,827 3.4%
7/30/2015 CPLA  $        50.72  $    52.97 4%                 619 2.9%
7/30/2015 CSCO  $        28.07  $    27.91 -1%        144,132 3.0%
7/30/2015 COH  $        30.94  $    31.28 1%             8,642 4.4%
7/30/2015 GME  $        45.76  $    44.41 -3%             4,944 3.1%
7/30/2015 KING  $        15.47  $    14.62 -5%             4,878 6.1%
7/30/2015 NSU  $          3.38  $      3.31 -2%                 685 4.7%
7/30/2015 PDLI  $          5.60  $      5.24 -6%                 942 10.7%
7/30/2015 PPC  $        21.92  $    20.92 -5%             5,692 26.3%
7/30/2015 PBI  $        20.27  $    20.81 3%             4,131 3.7%
7/30/2015 QCOM  $        63.87  $    57.78 -10%        101,639 3.0%
7/30/2015 VIAB  $        55.86  $    47.48 -15%           22,381 2.9%
8/28/2015 BKE  $        42.59  $    35.80 -16%             2,067 9.2%
8/28/2015 CA  $        27.26  $    29.00 6%           11,885 3.7%
8/28/2015 CSCO  $        25.79  $    27.91 8%        131,638 3.3%
8/28/2015 IQNT  $        18.59  $    20.38 10%                 625 3.2%
8/28/2015 KING  $        13.50  $    14.62 8%             4,250 7.0%
8/28/2015 PDLI  $          5.49  $      5.24 -5%                 924 10.9%
8/28/2015 PPC  $        20.81  $    20.92 1%             5,404 27.7%
8/28/2015 PBI  $        19.95  $    20.81 4%             4,030 3.8%
8/28/2015 QCOM  $        56.97  $    57.78 1%           90,656 3.4%
8/28/2015 VIAB  $        40.54  $    47.48 17%           16,278 3.9%
9/25/2015 BKE  $        37.44  $    35.80 -4%             1,817 10.5%
9/25/2015 CA  $        27.36  $    29.00 6%           11,929 3.7%
9/25/2015 CPLA  $        51.62  $    52.97 3%                 625 2.9%
9/25/2015 CSCO  $        25.82  $    27.91 8%        132,337 3.3%
9/25/2015 GME  $        41.00  $    44.41 8%             4,342 3.5%
9/25/2015 HPQ  $        25.01  $    29.30 17%           45,043 2.8%
9/25/2015 IQNT  $        22.54  $    20.38 -10%                 757 2.7%
9/25/2015 PDLI  $          5.22  $      5.24 0%                 854 11.5%
9/25/2015 PPC  $        21.03  $    20.92 -1%             5,461 27.4%
9/25/2015 PBI  $        20.12  $    20.81 3%             4,064 3.7%
9/25/2015 QCOM  $        53.22  $    57.78 9%           83,981 3.6%
9/25/2015 VIAB  $        43.52  $    47.48 9%           17,317 3.7%

Now that is a lot of numbers.  Here is a table showing how they have done in composite by buy date:

Date Formula Change Index Change
9/26/2014 2.1% -0.9%
10/31/2014 2.6% 1.7%
11/28/2014 -2.2% -0.8%
12/31/2014 2.2% -0.7%
1/30/2015 4.8% 2.1%
2/27/2015 -4.5% -3.4%
3/27/2015 -1.1% -2.0%
4/24/2015 -7.4% -4.6%
5/29/2015 -8.3% -4.2%
6/26/2015 -2.9% -4.3%
7/30/2015 -1.2% -4.3%
8/28/2015 3.5% 1.2%
9/25/2015 4.1% 4.3%
Total -0.6% -1.2%

So it has been "working", although by a slim margin.  What happens when you pull out PDLI, which I have been doing in my selections every quarter as I knew their revenue stream was melting away?

Date Formula Change Index Change
9/26/2014 4.8% -0.9%
10/31/2014 5.5% 1.7%
11/28/2014 0.0% -0.8%
12/31/2014 5.1% -0.7%
1/30/2015 7.3% 2.1%
2/27/2015 -2.8% -3.4%
3/27/2015 1.5% -2.0%
4/24/2015 -6.1% -4.6%
5/29/2015 -7.4% -4.2%
6/26/2015 -1.9% -4.3%
7/30/2015 -0.8% -4.3%
8/28/2015 4.4% 1.2%
9/25/2015 4.4% 4.3%
Total 1.1% -1.2%

Interesting - now it is working better. This assumes of course that you can pick and weed out a "bad" stock. I have been successful thus far, but I also know that is why I went the random approach, that my ability to do that has it's limitations.

Sorted By Stock

Regarding debate on whether to buy same stock in more than one tranche, I have argued it is a good idea as if a stock declines a lot, it may be a better buy later on. That is one of MFIs self correcting features.  Of course, it can cause you to be over weight in a bad stock (thing IAR in 2009).

Date Stock Initial Price End Price Percent Change  Mkt Cap  Yield
9/26/2014 BAH  $        22.94  $    27.17 18%             3,601 10.6%
7/30/2015 BBY  $        31.92  $    36.95 16%           11,346 2.9%
9/26/2014 BKE  $        42.81  $    37.44 -13%             2,220 4.9%
10/31/2014 BKE  $        46.47  $    35.80 -23%             2,386 4.5%
11/28/2014 BKE  $        48.22  $    35.80 -26%             2,476 4.3%
12/31/2014 BKE  $        49.48  $    35.80 -28%             2,583 4.2%
1/30/2015 BKE  $        50.55  $    35.80 -29%             2,457 7.2%
2/27/2015 BKE  $        50.06  $    35.80 -28%             2,433 7.3%
4/24/2015 BKE  $        47.70  $    35.80 -25%             2,308 8.2%
8/28/2015 BKE  $        42.59  $    35.80 -16%             2,067 9.2%
9/25/2015 BKE  $        37.44  $    35.80 -4%             1,817 10.5%
9/26/2014 CA  $        26.97  $    27.36 1%           12,278 3.7%
10/31/2014 CA  $        28.10  $    29.00 3%           12,796 3.6%
11/28/2014 CA  $        30.38  $    29.00 -5%           13,716 3.3%
12/31/2014 CA  $        29.69  $    29.00 -2%           13,558 3.4%
1/30/2015 CA  $        29.55  $    29.00 -2%           13,281 3.4%
2/27/2015 CA  $        31.96  $    29.00 -9%           14,254 3.1%
5/29/2015 CA  $        30.16  $    29.00 -4%           13,261 3.3%
6/26/2015 CA  $        29.61  $    29.00 -2%           13,017 3.4%
7/30/2015 CA  $        29.14  $    29.00 0%           12,827 3.4%
8/28/2015 CA  $        27.26  $    29.00 6%           11,885 3.7%
9/25/2015 CA  $        27.36  $    29.00 6%           11,929 3.7%
11/28/2014 CJREF  $        17.90  $    10.71 -40%             1,622 5.5%
9/26/2014 COH  $        34.96  $    28.48 -19%             9,845 3.9%
10/31/2014 COH  $        33.08  $    31.28 -5%             9,455 4.1%
11/28/2014 COH  $        35.72  $    31.28 -12%           10,230 3.8%
12/31/2014 COH  $        36.49  $    31.28 -14%           10,434 3.7%
1/30/2015 COH  $        36.13  $    31.28 -13%           10,250 3.7%
7/30/2015 COH  $        30.94  $    31.28 1%             8,642 4.4%
5/29/2015 CPLA  $        52.50  $    52.97 1%                 651 2.8%
6/26/2015 CPLA  $        55.18  $    52.97 -4%                 680 2.7%
7/30/2015 CPLA  $        50.72  $    52.97 4%                 619 2.9%
9/25/2015 CPLA  $        51.62  $    52.97 3%                 625 2.9%
9/26/2014 CSCO  $        24.27  $    26.03 7%        126,375 3.0%
10/31/2014 CSCO  $        23.74  $    27.91 18%        124,968 3.1%
11/28/2014 CSCO  $        26.82  $    27.91 4%        140,024 2.8%
12/31/2014 CSCO  $        26.99  $    27.91 3%        143,672 2.7%
1/30/2015 CSCO  $        25.76  $    27.91 8%        133,565 3.0%
2/27/2015 CSCO  $        28.83  $    27.91 -3%        150,708 2.6%
3/27/2015 CSCO  $        26.50  $    27.91 5%        138,553 3.2%
4/24/2015 CSCO  $        28.37  $    27.91 -2%        147,184 3.0%
5/29/2015 CSCO  $        28.85  $    27.91 -3%        149,276 2.9%
6/26/2015 CSCO  $        27.84  $    27.91 0%        144,030 3.0%
7/30/2015 CSCO  $        28.07  $    27.91 -1%        144,132 3.0%
8/28/2015 CSCO  $        25.79  $    27.91 8%        131,638 3.3%
9/25/2015 CSCO  $        25.82  $    27.91 8%        132,337 3.3%
9/26/2014 GME  $        40.65  $    41.00 1%             4,742 3.2%
10/31/2014 GME  $        41.35  $    44.41 7%             4,823 3.1%
11/28/2014 GME  $        36.84  $    44.41 21%             4,273 4.3%
12/31/2014 GME  $        32.93  $    44.41 35%             3,698 4.0%
1/30/2015 GME  $        34.35  $    44.41 29%             3,853 3.8%
2/27/2015 GME  $        36.02  $    44.41 23%             4,041 3.7%
3/27/2015 GME  $        37.72  $    44.41 18%             4,130 3.8%
4/24/2015 GME  $        40.03  $    44.41 11%             4,384 3.6%
5/29/2015 GME  $        42.68  $    44.41 4%             4,675 3.4%
6/26/2015 GME  $        43.66  $    44.41 2%             4,743 3.3%
7/30/2015 GME  $        45.76  $    44.41 -3%             4,944 3.1%
9/25/2015 GME  $        41.00  $    44.41 8%             4,342 3.5%
9/25/2015 HPQ  $        25.01  $    29.30 17%           45,043 2.8%
9/26/2014 HRB  $        30.52  $    36.05 18%             8,602 2.6%
10/31/2014 HRB  $        31.53  $    35.40 12%             8,888 2.5%
11/28/2014 HRB  $        32.83  $    35.40 8%             9,254 2.4%
3/27/2015 HRB  $        31.64  $    35.40 12%             8,816 2.5%
4/24/2015 HRB  $        31.87  $    35.40 11%             8,880 2.5%
5/29/2015 HRB  $        31.34  $    35.40 13%             8,734 2.6%
6/26/2015 HRB  $        30.41  $    35.40 16%             8,418 2.6%
7/30/2015 HRB  $        33.15  $    35.40 7%             9,178 2.4%
11/28/2014 IQNT  $        17.98  $    20.38 13%                 610 3.3%
12/31/2014 IQNT  $        19.16  $    20.38 6%                 642 3.1%
4/24/2015 IQNT  $        19.01  $    20.38 7%                 648 3.2%
6/26/2015 IQNT  $        18.76  $    20.38 9%                 634 3.2%
8/28/2015 IQNT  $        18.59  $    20.38 10%                 625 3.2%
9/25/2015 IQNT  $        22.54  $    20.38 -10%                 757 2.7%
9/26/2014 KING  $        12.04  $    13.40 11%             4,092 3.8%
10/31/2014 KING  $        10.72  $    14.62 36%             3,645 4.3%
11/28/2014 KING  $        14.34  $    14.62 2%             4,905 3.2%
12/31/2014 KING  $        14.45  $    14.62 1%             5,040 3.2%
1/30/2015 KING  $        12.41  $    14.62 18%             4,245 3.7%
2/27/2015 KING  $        14.85  $    14.62 -2%             5,084 3.1%
3/27/2015 KING  $        15.53  $    14.62 -6%             5,000 6.1%
4/24/2015 KING  $        16.76  $    14.62 -13%             5,396 5.5%
6/26/2015 KING  $        14.08  $    14.62 4%             4,440 6.7%
7/30/2015 KING  $        15.47  $    14.62 -5%             4,878 6.1%
8/28/2015 KING  $        13.50  $    14.62 8%             4,250 7.0%
1/30/2015 MSFT  $        39.59  $    47.11 19%        332,007 2.9%
2/27/2015 MSFT  $        43.28  $    47.11 9%        360,359 2.7%
3/27/2015 MSFT  $        40.44  $    47.11 16%        336,692 3.1%
4/24/2015 NSU  $          3.73  $      3.31 -11%                 763 4.3%
5/29/2015 NSU  $          4.07  $      3.31 -19%                 833 3.9%
6/26/2015 NSU  $          3.92  $      3.31 -15%                 793 4.1%
7/30/2015 NSU  $          3.38  $      3.31 -2%                 685 4.7%
9/26/2014 NUS  $        43.20  $    41.21 -5%             2,641 3.2%
10/31/2014 NUS  $        51.25  $    36.64 -29%             3,133 2.6%
11/28/2014 NUS  $        40.91  $    36.64 -10%             2,479 3.4%
12/31/2014 NUS  $        42.77  $    36.64 -14%             2,626 3.2%
1/30/2015 NUS  $        40.11  $    36.64 -9%             2,430 3.4%
10/31/2014 OMC  $        69.94  $    70.94 1%           17,834 2.6%
6/26/2015 OMC  $        70.33  $    70.94 1%           17,307 2.8%
10/31/2014 PBI  $        23.94  $    20.81 -13%             4,963 3.1%
11/28/2014 PBI  $        24.00  $    20.81 -13%             4,948 3.1%
12/31/2014 PBI  $        23.76  $    20.81 -12%             4,960 3.2%
2/27/2015 PBI  $        22.78  $    20.81 -9%             4,657 3.3%
3/27/2015 PBI  $        22.94  $    20.81 -9%             4,689 3.3%
4/24/2015 PBI  $        22.52  $    20.81 -8%             4,605 3.3%
5/29/2015 PBI  $        21.66  $    20.81 -4%             4,392 3.5%
6/26/2015 PBI  $        21.30  $    20.81 -2%             4,319 3.5%
7/30/2015 PBI  $        20.27  $    20.81 3%             4,131 3.7%
8/28/2015 PBI  $        19.95  $    20.81 4%             4,030 3.8%
9/25/2015 PBI  $        20.12  $    20.81 3%             4,064 3.7%
9/26/2014 PDLI  $          6.93  $      5.22 -25%             1,317 8.7%
10/31/2014 PDLI  $          7.79  $      5.24 -33%             1,480 7.7%
11/28/2014 PDLI  $          7.54  $      5.24 -31%             1,379 8.0%
12/31/2014 PDLI  $          7.17  $      5.24 -27%             1,287 8.4%
1/30/2015 PDLI  $          6.78  $      5.24 -23%             1,217 8.8%
2/27/2015 PDLI  $          6.49  $      5.24 -19%             1,125 9.2%
3/27/2015 PDLI  $          6.69  $      5.24 -22%             1,135 9.0%
4/24/2015 PDLI  $          6.67  $      5.24 -21%             1,131 9.0%
5/29/2015 PDLI  $          6.35  $      5.24 -17%             1,092 9.4%
6/26/2015 PDLI  $          6.33  $      5.24 -17%             1,065 9.5%
7/30/2015 PDLI  $          5.60  $      5.24 -6%                 942 10.7%
8/28/2015 PDLI  $          5.49  $      5.24 -5%                 924 10.9%
9/25/2015 PDLI  $          5.22  $      5.24 0%                 854 11.5%
2/27/2015 PPC  $        27.43  $    20.92 -24%             7,104 21.0%
3/27/2015 PPC  $        23.71  $    20.92 -12%             6,141 24.3%
4/24/2015 PPC  $        23.62  $    20.92 -11%             6,118 24.4%
5/29/2015 PPC  $        25.58  $    20.92 -18%             6,626 22.6%
6/26/2015 PPC  $        23.92  $    20.92 -13%             6,196 24.1%
7/30/2015 PPC  $        21.92  $    20.92 -5%             5,692 26.3%
8/28/2015 PPC  $        20.81  $    20.92 1%             5,404 27.7%
9/25/2015 PPC  $        21.03  $    20.92 -1%             5,461 27.4%
1/30/2015 QCOM  $        61.16  $    57.78 -6%        103,309 2.7%
3/27/2015 QCOM  $        66.01  $    57.78 -12%        110,859 2.5%
4/24/2015 QCOM  $        67.20  $    57.78 -14%        111,436 2.9%
5/29/2015 QCOM  $        68.62  $    57.78 -16%        113,787 2.8%
6/26/2015 QCOM  $        64.13  $    57.78 -10%        105,606 3.0%
7/30/2015 QCOM  $        63.87  $    57.78 -10%        101,639 3.0%
8/28/2015 QCOM  $        56.97  $    57.78 1%           90,656 3.4%
9/25/2015 QCOM  $        53.22  $    57.78 9%           83,981 3.6%
9/26/2014 RGR  $        47.43  $    59.70 26%                 938 3.4%
10/31/2014 RGR  $        40.92  $    59.99 47%                 809 5.0%
11/28/2014 RGR  $        37.53  $    59.99 60%                 740 4.3%
12/31/2014 RGR  $        34.12  $    59.99 76%                 667 4.7%
1/30/2015 RGR  $        39.81  $    59.99 51%                 784 4.1%
2/27/2015 RGR  $        51.20  $    59.99 17%                 974 3.2%
1/30/2015 RTN  $        98.14  $  111.46 14%           30,925 2.5%
6/26/2015 RTN  $        96.52  $  111.46 15%           29,914 2.8%
10/31/2014 TSRA  $        29.80  $    33.22 11%             1,587 3.1%
11/28/2014 TSRA  $        33.62  $    33.22 -1%             1,801 2.7%
4/24/2015 TSRA  $        37.96  $    33.22 -12%             2,029 3.2%
5/29/2015 VIAB  $        65.89  $    47.48 -28%           26,558 2.4%
6/26/2015 VIAB  $        65.84  $    47.48 -28%           26,379 2.4%
7/30/2015 VIAB  $        55.86  $    47.48 -15%           22,381 2.9%
8/28/2015 VIAB  $        40.54  $    47.48 17%           16,278 3.9%
9/25/2015 VIAB  $        43.52  $    47.48 9%           17,317 3.7%

So if you look at BKE - thus far it has always been a bad stock to buy as it has been in steady decline for the 1+ year we have here. But a GME, which dropped quite a bit from September 2014 through early 1st q 2015 would have been great to buy as it has rebounded. Keep in mind that the self correcting feature due to rebalancing can really help.  Suppose a stock drops 50% the first quarter (say between January and March 2015) and you have it in initial tranche. Then you get it in the next tranche (say March 31 2015) as well.  Then it stays flat for rest of 2015 but then gets back to original price. Yes, you lose 50% on initial tranche, but you make 100% on second tranche.

You might say, "this doesn't happen". But it does. I wrote a blog in 2013 called "Anatomy of A MFI Stock" where I analyzed that very phenomena.

Interestingly, I identified in that blog 4 stocks that were beaten down that might be good picks and they went up 17% in next 12 months.

Stock 10/23/2013 10/23/2014 Dividends Change
ENZN                   1.71                   1.02               0.45 -14%
STRA                 47.92                 66.30                    -   38%
APOL                 27.63                 25.47                    -   -8%
EGY                   5.46                   8.31                    -   52%

Have a great day everyone.

2 comments:

John Carney said...

Marsh,

Lots of good work. Might be interesting to look at this by quarter as the extra 90 days might make it a better pick.

Brad H. said...

Great work here. I really enjoy reading your blog.

I noticed that with the exception of BAH and PDLI, every stock with a double-digit yield has a negative return. Have you thought about placing a cap on the yield? You gave 2.4% as a minimum, but I wonder if there is a "sweet spot" range that maximizes yield and return. Curious to hear your thoughts.

Brad