Saturday, October 31, 2015

MFI Weekend Update - Happy Halloween

Weekend Update

Another week and month are done.  We still have leaves on the trees in full fall color, just beautiful time of year. But the clocks fall back this evening and I know it is now a slippery slope towards winter.

October was a very very good month.  I am too  lazy to figure it out right now, but I am up a nice 9% on the year.  My MFI Select portfolio is the huge winner,  up 25% on the year.  I do have a tranche of the Select portfolio coming up in two weeks. I have bought four pharma MFI stocks and am leaning towards making those the cornerstone of the tranche.

MFI Select

So without further ado, here is the tranche coming up. One of my best tranches ever (#2 to be exact).

11/15/2014 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
FLR $64.80 $47.81 $0.84 -24.9% 3.3%
IPCM $38.45 $78.50 $0.00 104.2% 3.3%
VIAB $72.29 $49.31 $1.46 -29.8% 3.3%
NHTC $12.19 $49.26 $0.06 304.6% 3.3%
AWRE $4.40 $3.23 $0.00 -26.6% 3.3%
Totals 65.5% 3.3%


Pretty wide variance amongst the names, this seems to be a stronger theme (though I haven't done the calculation) recently.

2/1/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
VEC $28.00 $24.87 $0.00 -11.2% 4.8%
QCOM $62.73 $59.42 $1.38 -3.1% 4.8%
VIAB $63.91 $49.31 $1.13 -21.1% 4.8%
UIS $22.03 $13.40 $0.00 -39.2% 4.8%
NHTC $12.44 $49.26 $0.05 296.4% 4.8%
Totals 44.4% 4.8%
5/6/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
CBI $50.38 $44.87 $0.14 -10.7% -0.4%
PSDV $4.12 $3.84 $0.00 -6.9% -0.4%
TSRA $38.94 $34.97 $0.40 -9.2% -0.4%
KORS $62.24 $38.64 $0.00 -37.9% -0.4%
DEPO $23.50 $17.50 $0.00 -25.5% -0.4%
Totals -18.0% -0.4%
8/17/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
VDSI $18.66 $19.01 $0.00 1.9% -1.0%
SALE $9.34 $8.79 $0.00 -5.9% -1.0%
CSCO $28.95 $28.85 $0.21 0.4% -1.0%
TGNA $25.30 $27.04 $0.14 7.4% -1.0%
HSII $20.14 $26.56 $0.00 31.9% -1.0%
Totals 7.1% -1.0%
Category/Tranche August November February May Total
Initial Investment        25,000          25,000       25,000        25,000      100,000
Current Tranche 7.1% 65.5% 44.4% -18.0% 25.2%
Previous Tranche 11.2% 14.2% 8.5% 18.3% 16.7%
Tranche -2 41.4% 43.7% 78.3% 33.0% 49.1%
Tranche -3 14.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
MFI Overall Gain 92.1% 171.7% 179.1% 28.9% 118.0%
Current Balance        48,034          67,913       69,776        32,236      217,959
R3K Current Tranche -1.0% 3.3% 4.8% -0.4% 1.7%
R3K Overall Gain 57.1% 61.7% 43.3% 33.6% 48.9%
R3K Balance        39,282          40,417       35,825        33,412      148,936
Annualized IRR 22.5% 40.2% 45.3% 10.8% 30.8%

Date Differential MFI Value R3K Value
12/1/2012 -2.20%          99,765            101,965
1/1/2013 -1.78%        102,798            104,575
2/1/2013 -2.26%        102,594            104,856
3/1/2013 -2.23%        102,881            105,114
4/1/2013 -0.43%        106,804            107,234
5/1/2013 2.00%        110,423            108,423
6/1/2013 4.75%        115,831            111,085
7/1/2013 4.29%        114,888            110,597
8/1/2013 6.91%        124,799            117,889
9/1/2013 10.46%        124,536            114,079
10/1/2013 19.67%        138,655            118,990
11/1/2013 19.75%        143,514            123,764
12/1/2013 23.70%        150,105            126,405
1/1/2014 26.63%        157,138            130,503
2/1/2014 24.70%        150,619            125,918
3/1/2014 25.66%        158,116            132,458
4/1/2014 30.38%        162,991            132,616
5/1/2014 29.65%        162,428            132,779
6/1/2014 31.44%        167,001            135,559
7/1/2014 39.23%        177,971            138,740
8/1/2014 31.13%        167,054            135,922
9/1/2014 35.90%        177,792            141,892
10/1/2014 29.38%        168,321            138,944
11/1/2014 26.14%        168,810            142,666
12/1/2014 30.22%        176,420            146,198
1/1/2015 28.17%        174,306            146,140
2/1/2015 20.63%        162,833            142,201
3/1/2015 25.15%        175,476            150,324
4/1/2015 29.95%        178,565            148,612
5/1/2015 37.31%        186,655            149,348
6/1/2015 51.53%        202,897            151,371
7/1/2015 62.69%        211,437            148,743
8/1/2015 40.75%        192,117            151,369
9/1/2015 36.41%        178,603            142,195
10/1/2015 43.12%        181,175            138,052
11/1/2015 69.02%        217,959            148,936

This month by month progression table is incredible. It really illustrates how good October was. You can see the value increased by 20% (181 to 218).  It was a great month and has been a great year.

MFI Formula

While not as off the charts as our "select" friends, these chaps are still up  a bit more than 4% on the year and are edging out the benchmark in the metrics. So not an overnight success story, but certainly plodding along & making money.

Date Differential Value R3K Value
10/1/2014 0.00%        100,000            100,000
11/1/2014 1.63%        102,288            100,658
12/1/2014 0.30%        101,375            101,075
1/1/2015 -0.33%        100,664            100,995
2/1/2015 1.67%        101,281              99,611
3/1/2015 3.62%        106,073            102,454
4/1/2015 5.09%        106,781            101,695
5/1/2015 5.78%        107,859            102,077
6/1/2015 5.08%        108,213            103,134
7/1/2015 4.82%        106,423            101,604
8/1/2015 3.71%        107,112            103,404
9/1/2015 4.38%        101,523              97,139
10/1/2015 6.39%        100,703              94,312
11/1/2015 2.93%        104,835            101,907

12/31/14 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
CA $30.83 $27.71 $0.75 -7.7% 0.8%
CSCO $28.36 $28.85 $0.82 4.6% 0.8%
RGR $34.81 $56.94 $0.85 66.0% 0.8%
GME $34.21 $46.07 $1.08 37.8% 0.8%
IQNT $19.87 $20.72 $0.45 6.5% 0.8%
Totals 21.5% 0.8%
3/31/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
HRB $31.99 $37.26 $0.40 17.7% -0.5%
GME $37.69 $46.07 $0.72 24.1% -0.5%
KING $15.85 $14.96 $0.00 -5.6% -0.5%
NSU $3.43 $3.00 $0.08 -10.2% -0.5%
PPC $22.65 $18.99 $0.00 -16.2% -0.5%
Totals 2.0% -0.5%
7/1/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
BKE $46.45 $35.44 $0.46 -22.7% -0.4%
CA $29.34 $27.71 $0.25 -4.7% -0.4%
MSFT $44.42 $52.64 $0.31 19.2% -0.4%
QCOM $62.95 $59.42 $0.48 -4.8% -0.4%
VIAB $64.75 $49.31 $0.40 -23.2% -0.4%
Totals -7.3% -0.4%
10/1/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
BKE $36.83 $35.44 $0.23 -3.1% 7.9%
IQNT $21.96 $20.72 $0.00 -5.6% 7.9%
QCOM $53.45 $59.42 $0.00 11.2% 7.9%
CSCO $26.37 $28.85 $0.21 10.2% 7.9%
CA $27.30 $27.71 $0.00 1.5% 7.9%
Totals 2.8% 7.9%

As you can see, not always a straight line to success. remember Greenblatt said only 5 of 8 portfolios "win".

Date Differential Value R3K Value
10/1/2014 0.00%        100,000            100,000
11/1/2014 1.63%        102,288            100,658
12/1/2014 0.30%        101,375            101,075
1/1/2015 -0.33%        100,664            100,995
2/1/2015 1.67%        101,281              99,611
3/1/2015 3.62%        106,073            102,454
4/1/2015 5.09%        106,781            101,695
5/1/2015 5.78%        107,859            102,077
6/1/2015 5.08%        108,213            103,134
7/1/2015 4.82%        106,423            101,604
8/1/2015 3.71%        107,112            103,404
9/1/2015 4.38%        101,523              97,139
10/1/2015 6.39%        100,703              94,312
11/1/2015 2.93%        104,835            101,907

MFI Micro

My small caps are still struggling, but they have certainly cut down the lead.

8/28/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
VNCE $8.50 $4.55 $0.00 -46.5% 4.1%
ONE $1.99 $2.94 $0.00 47.7% 4.1%
TPUB $11.60 $9.44 $0.18 -17.1% 4.1%
LQDT $7.26 $8.19 $0.00 12.8% 4.1%
PERI $2.45 $2.11 $0.00 -13.9% 4.1%
Totals -3.4% 4.1%

MFI Pharma

Here are my recent Pharma buys in the huge healthcare sell off.

10/20/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
LCI $43.26 $44.77 $0.00 3.5% 1.9%
DEPO $16.96 $17.50 $0.00 3.2% 1.9%
AMAG $35.63 $40.00 $0.00 12.3% 1.9%
ENTA $25.37 $28.09 $0.00 10.7% 1.9%
Totals 7.4% 1.9%

I am not sure what I will ultimately do with these stocks.

Dividends & Warrants

Div and Warrants Start Current Dividend Pct Gain Pct Gain Last Week
BAC-WTA $6.04 $6.43 $0.00 6.5% 1.2%
AOD $8.09 $8.01 $1.55 18.2% 18.7%
FSC $7.05 $5.73 $0.46 -12.2% -13.4%
CSQ $9.31 $10.20 $1.83 29.2% 29.9%
NTC $12.05 $12.55 $1.14 13.7% 13.3%
TGONF $10.24 $9.80 $1.03 5.8% 5.5%
HIG-WT $21.24 $39.69 $0.00 86.9% 97.2%
O $22.52 $49.46 $17.58 197.7% 198.8%
OIBAX $5.04 $5.64 $2.12 54.1% 54.3%
sjt $11.06 $7.65 $0.17 -29.3% -26.2%
Totals 12.3% 12.1%

You can see the BAC warrants have been doing very well.  I added to my position at the start of October, and that group is up 19%.

So all in all, everything is reasonably ok. Probably suggests another sell off!  I am starting to believe China is much worse off than they are letting on.

2 comments:

John Carney said...

Marsh,

Thnaks for pointing out it only works 5 times out of 8. The motley fool with ziggy Daug has a similar finding. I rewiewed the numbers and they have 18.2% return vs index of 8.9%. I looked at 9 years and 5 won and 4 lost to the index. Lots of hugh loses but more gains happen about 54 % of the time.

John Carney said...

Marsh,

Thnaks for pointing out it only works 5 times out of 8. The motley fool with ziggy Daug has a similar finding. I rewiewed the numbers and they have 18.2% return vs index of 8.9%. I looked at 9 years and 5 won and 4 lost to the index. Lots of hugh loses but more gains happen about 54 % of the time.