Friday was certainly a volatile day. Down 200,up 200. I did add to my BAC warrants on the early drop. But it was a small purchase in total. I also added to my CSQ earlier in the week.
So while my stocks are going down, my investment income is going up. And I do enjoy seeing the cashola roll in.
I am now down 3.2% on the year. Not exactly stellar. But it is a marathon, not a sprint.
MFI Select
Well, it certainly didn't "feel" like a good week. But I went from $181 to $184K and expanded my lead on R3K.
| FLR | $64.80 | $42.40 | $0.84 | -33.3% | -2.6% |
| IPCM | $38.45 | $78.82 | $0.00 | 105.0% | -2.6% |
| VIAB | $72.29 | $44.33 | $1.46 | -36.7% | -2.6% |
| NHTC | $12.19 | $33.25 | $0.06 | 173.3% | -2.6% |
| AWRE | $4.40 | $3.35 | $0.00 | -23.9% | -2.6% |
| Totals | 36.9% | -2.6% | |||
| 2/1/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| VEC | $28.00 | $22.16 | $0.00 | -20.9% | -1.2% |
| QCOM | $62.73 | $55.07 | $1.38 | -10.0% | -1.2% |
| VIAB | $63.91 | $44.33 | $1.13 | -28.9% | -1.2% |
| UIS | $22.03 | $12.30 | $0.00 | -44.2% | -1.2% |
| NHTC | $12.44 | $33.25 | $0.05 | 167.7% | -1.2% |
| Totals | 12.8% | -1.2% | |||
| 5/6/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CBI | $50.38 | $38.78 | $0.14 | -22.7% | -6.1% |
| PSDV | $4.12 | $3.68 | $0.00 | -10.8% | -6.1% |
| TSRA | $38.94 | $32.73 | $0.40 | -14.9% | -6.1% |
| KORS | $62.24 | $43.53 | $0.00 | -30.1% | -6.1% |
| DEPO | $23.50 | $19.82 | $0.00 | -15.7% | -6.1% |
| Totals | -18.8% | -6.1% | |||
| 8/17/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| VDSI | $18.66 | $17.84 | $0.00 | -4.4% | -6.7% |
| SALE | $9.34 | $8.70 | $0.00 | -6.8% | -6.7% |
| CSCO | $28.95 | $25.76 | $0.21 | -10.3% | -6.7% |
| TGNA | $25.30 | $23.09 | $0.14 | -8.2% | -6.7% |
| HSII | $20.14 | $19.43 | $0.00 | -3.5% | -6.7% |
| Totals | -6.7% | -6.7% |
That May 6th portfolio is certainly a hot mess. Not a winner in my five picks and the "best" stock is down 10%. Hard to believe DEPO was north of $30 just a blink of an eye ago. I took a look at the run off from the 5 stocks I sold in May (below):
| 5/6/2014 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| AVG | $19.57 | $23.27 | $0.00 | 18.9% | 12.9% |
| CA | $29.54 | $31.41 | $1.00 | 9.7% | 12.9% |
| CSCO | $22.79 | $28.89 | $0.78 | 30.2% | 12.9% |
| NSR | $25.82 | $30.69 | $0.00 | 18.9% | 12.9% |
| RCII | $28.78 | $31.77 | $0.94 | 13.7% | 12.9% |
| Totals | 18.3% | 12.9% |
In aggregate, those five stacks are down 12.5%, so definitely still a struggle. I also looked at my reject list, the stocks I considered and didn't pick... they're down 18%! I think I was just screwed.
| Date | Differential | MFI Value | R3K Value |
| 12/1/2012 | -2.20% | 99,765 | 101,965 |
| 1/1/2013 | -1.78% | 102,798 | 104,575 |
| 2/1/2013 | -2.26% | 102,594 | 104,856 |
| 3/1/2013 | -2.23% | 102,881 | 105,114 |
| 4/1/2013 | -0.43% | 106,804 | 107,234 |
| 5/1/2013 | 2.00% | 110,423 | 108,423 |
| 6/1/2013 | 4.75% | 115,831 | 111,085 |
| 7/1/2013 | 4.29% | 114,888 | 110,597 |
| 8/1/2013 | 6.91% | 124,799 | 117,889 |
| 9/1/2013 | 10.46% | 124,536 | 114,079 |
| 10/1/2013 | 19.67% | 138,655 | 118,990 |
| 11/1/2013 | 19.75% | 143,514 | 123,764 |
| 12/1/2013 | 23.70% | 150,105 | 126,405 |
| 1/1/2014 | 26.63% | 157,138 | 130,503 |
| 2/1/2014 | 24.70% | 150,619 | 125,918 |
| 3/1/2014 | 25.66% | 158,116 | 132,458 |
| 4/1/2014 | 30.38% | 162,991 | 132,616 |
| 5/1/2014 | 29.65% | 162,428 | 132,779 |
| 6/1/2014 | 31.44% | 167,001 | 135,559 |
| 7/1/2014 | 39.23% | 177,971 | 138,740 |
| 8/1/2014 | 31.13% | 167,054 | 135,922 |
| 9/1/2014 | 35.90% | 177,792 | 141,892 |
| 10/1/2014 | 29.38% | 168,321 | 138,944 |
| 11/1/2014 | 26.14% | 168,810 | 142,666 |
| 12/1/2014 | 30.22% | 176,420 | 146,198 |
| 1/1/2015 | 28.17% | 174,306 | 146,140 |
| 2/1/2015 | 20.63% | 162,833 | 142,201 |
| 3/1/2015 | 25.15% | 175,476 | 150,324 |
| 4/1/2015 | 29.95% | 178,565 | 148,612 |
| 5/1/2015 | 37.31% | 186,655 | 149,348 |
| 6/1/2015 | 51.53% | 202,897 | 151,371 |
| 7/1/2015 | 62.69% | 211,437 | 148,743 |
| 8/1/2015 | 40.75% | 192,117 | 151,369 |
| 9/1/2015 | 36.41% | 178,603 | 142,195 |
| 10/1/2015 | 43.12% | 181,175 | 138,052 |
| Current | 44.07% | 184,446 | 140,375 |
Physical & Pumpkin Pie
With fall here (Boom!) in full force (yesterday it was grey and rainy and didn't break 55) it is definitely pumpkin pie season. I will be making my first pie of the season today.
Then it was interesting. I went in for my annual physical this week. Pretty much head to toes and I was happy to hear that everything is good. Now I don't know about my gentle readers, but I never look forward to a physical. It is never as bad as I fear - the person drawing the blood has always done a good job ("you'll be feeling a slight pinch"); the prostate exam is a bit humiliating, but over fast enough and the flu shot was no biggie.
What was interesting was on my way to get my physical, I was listening to CNBC and a lady from Stanford has developed new blood tests that could set the industry on it's ear. They have two huge advantages: (1) they require much less blood (think a finger stick rather than a vein draw) and they are much cheaper (think 80% cheaper). Her company is rolling them out at Walgreens and she is the youngest female billionaire in the USA (Elizabeth Holmes). Could be a disruptor for LH and DGX.
MFI Formula
I did start a new MFI Formula tranche this week. It stumbled slightly out of the gate, but 51+ weeks to go. This approach is working reasonably well, although it also has it's hot mess tranche (June 30th).
| 10/1/2014 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BAH | $23.52 | $26.21 | $0.50 | 13.5% | -0.6% |
| BKE | $45.55 | $36.97 | $3.68 | -10.8% | -0.6% |
| CA | $27.87 | $27.30 | $1.00 | 1.5% | -0.6% |
| GME | $41.70 | $41.21 | $1.41 | 2.2% | -0.6% |
| NUS | $44.56 | $41.28 | $1.40 | -4.2% | -0.6% |
| Totals | 0.5% | -0.6% | |||
| 12/31/14 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CA | $30.83 | $27.68 | $0.75 | -7.8% | -5.0% |
| CSCO | $28.36 | $25.76 | $0.82 | -6.3% | -5.0% |
| RGR | $34.81 | $56.45 | $0.85 | 64.6% | -5.0% |
| GME | $34.21 | $41.50 | $1.08 | 24.5% | -5.0% |
| IQNT | $19.87 | $21.38 | $0.45 | 9.9% | -5.0% |
| Totals | 17.0% | -5.0% | |||
| 3/31/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| HRB | $31.99 | $36.57 | $0.40 | 15.6% | -6.2% |
| GME | $37.69 | $41.50 | $0.72 | 12.0% | -6.2% |
| KING | $15.85 | $13.84 | $0.00 | -12.7% | -6.2% |
| NSU | $3.43 | $3.08 | $0.08 | -7.9% | -6.2% |
| PPC | $22.65 | $19.85 | $0.00 | -12.4% | -6.2% |
| Totals | -1.1% | -6.2% | |||
| 7/1/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BKE | $46.45 | $37.09 | $0.23 | -19.7% | -6.2% |
| CA | $29.34 | $27.68 | $0.25 | -4.8% | -6.2% |
| MSFT | $44.42 | $45.57 | $0.31 | 3.3% | -6.2% |
| QCOM | $62.95 | $55.07 | $0.48 | -11.8% | -6.2% |
| VIAB | $64.75 | $44.33 | $0.40 | -30.9% | -6.2% |
| Totals | -12.8% | -6.2% | |||
| 10/1/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BKE | $36.83 | $37.09 | $0.00 | 0.7% | 1.7% |
| IQNT | $21.96 | $21.38 | $0.00 | -2.6% | 1.7% |
| QCOM | $53.45 | $55.07 | $0.00 | 3.0% | 1.7% |
| CSCO | $26.37 | $25.76 | $0.21 | -1.5% | 1.7% |
| CA | $27.30 | $27.68 | $0.00 | 1.4% | 1.7% |
| Totals | 0.2% | 1.7% |
I included the tranche that just closed for completeness.
| Category/Tranche | October | January | April | July | Total |
| Initial Investment | 249,820 | 249,939 | 250,180 | 249,728 | 999,667 |
| Current Tranche | 0.2% | 17.0% | -1.1% | -12.8% | 0.8% |
| Previous Tranche | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Tranche -2 | 0.0% | - | - | - | 0.0% |
| MFI Overall Gain | 0.7% | 17.0% | -1.1% | -12.8% | 1.0% |
| Current Balance | 251,456 | 292,361 | 247,514 | 217,838 | 1,009,170 |
| R3K Current Tranche | 1.7% | -5.0% | -6.2% | -6.2% | -3.9% |
| R3K Overall Gain | 1.1% | -5.0% | -6.2% | -6.2% | -3.9% |
| R3K Balance | 252,635 | 237,436 | 234,645 | 234,314 | 959,030 |
| Annualized IRR | 0.6% | 23.1% | -2.1% | -40.9% | 1.5% |
So one can see from 1st row that this started notionally with $1 million in four tranches a year ago. It is now $1,009,170. Not exactly "to the moon", but better than R3K at $959,030. The struggle has been real, as I have said over and over.
MFI Micro
I was wise to step away from day to day trading in August. But my first MFI Micro portfolio, which thankfully I under-invested in, is off to a terrible start:
| 8/28/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| VNCE | $8.50 | $3.60 | $0.00 | -57.6% | -1.9% |
| ONE | $1.99 | $2.03 | $0.00 | 2.0% | -1.9% |
| TPUB | $11.60 | $8.08 | $0.00 | -30.3% | -1.9% |
| LQDT | $7.26 | $7.58 | $0.00 | 4.4% | -1.9% |
| PERI | $2.45 | $2.08 | $0.00 | -15.1% | -1.9% |
| Totals | -19.3% | -1.9% |
If I go to the tracking portfolio I started at the same time, here are other stocks under $250m in market cap:
| Stock | Initial Price | End Price | Percent Change |
| NATH | 33.65 | 38.34 | 13.9% |
| GHM | 16.91 | 18.01 | 6.5% |
| LQDT | 7.36 | 7.58 | 3.0% |
| LBMH | 2.54 | 2.46 | -3.1% |
| WILN | 1.95 | 1.86 | -4.7% |
| PSDV | 3.94 | 3.68 | -6.6% |
| VEC | 24.05 | 22.16 | -7.9% |
| MSB | 13.02 | 11.79 | -9.4% |
| CLCT | 18.27 | 14.82 | -18.9% |
Who doesn't like a Nathan's Hot Dog?
Dividends and Warrants
| Div and Warrants | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain |
| BAC-WTA | $6.04 | $5.55 | $0.00 | -8.1% |
| AOD | $8.09 | $7.66 | $1.50 | 13.3% |
| FSC | $7.06 | $6.25 | $0.41 | -5.7% |
| CSQ | $9.31 | $9.40 | $1.76 | 20.0% |
| NTC | $12.05 | $12.38 | $1.09 | 11.8% |
| TGONF | $10.24 | $9.48 | $1.03 | 2.6% |
| HIG-WT | $21.24 | $38.55 | $0.00 | 81.5% |
| O | $22.41 | $46.00 | $17.46 | 183.1% |
| OIBAX | $5.04 | $5.64 | $2.12 | 54.1% |
| Totals | 13.2% |
As I do not track these in a s detailed a fashion as other portfolios, a little harder to see what is what.
But here is table from last week:
| Div and Warrants | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain |
| BAC-WTA | $6.09 | $5.95 | $0.00 | -2.3% |
| AOD | $8.09 | $7.75 | $1.52 | 14.5% |
| FSC | $7.06 | $6.60 | $0.41 | -0.7% |
| CSQ | $9.30 | $9.57 | $2.07 | 25.1% |
| NTC | $12.05 | $12.34 | $1.09 | 11.5% |
| TGONF | $10.24 | $9.76 | $1.03 | 5.4% |
| HIG-WT | $21.24 | $38.05 | $0.00 | 79.2% |
| O | $22.41 | $47.06 | $17.26 | 187.0% |
| OIBAX | $5.04 | $5.63 | $2.11 | 53.7% |
| Totals | 16.4% |
So you can see it was a bad week. The BAC warrants certainly took a tumble.
But keep in mind this is about income as much as "value". So here are my quarterly dividends, adjusted by a secret factor:
Note 2015 is well above 2014 thus far. I have a projection built in for 4th quarter (which was good in 2014 due to a couple special dividends such as KLAC).
So if I can keep ratcheting this up 5 to 10% per year - I am 56 - it could be a very nice stream at retirement.
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