Saturday, October 03, 2015

Weekend Update 10/3/15

Weekend Update

Friday was certainly a volatile day. Down 200,up 200. I did add to my BAC warrants on the early drop. But it was a small purchase in total. I also added to my CSQ earlier in the week.

So while my stocks are going down, my investment income is going up. And I do enjoy seeing the cashola roll in.

I am now down 3.2% on the year.  Not exactly stellar.  But it is a marathon, not a sprint.

MFI Select

Well, it certainly didn't "feel" like a good week. But I went from $181 to $184K and expanded my lead on R3K.

FLR $64.80 $42.40 $0.84 -33.3% -2.6%
IPCM $38.45 $78.82 $0.00 105.0% -2.6%
VIAB $72.29 $44.33 $1.46 -36.7% -2.6%
NHTC $12.19 $33.25 $0.06 173.3% -2.6%
AWRE $4.40 $3.35 $0.00 -23.9% -2.6%
Totals 36.9% -2.6%
2/1/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
VEC $28.00 $22.16 $0.00 -20.9% -1.2%
QCOM $62.73 $55.07 $1.38 -10.0% -1.2%
VIAB $63.91 $44.33 $1.13 -28.9% -1.2%
UIS $22.03 $12.30 $0.00 -44.2% -1.2%
NHTC $12.44 $33.25 $0.05 167.7% -1.2%
Totals 12.8% -1.2%
5/6/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
CBI $50.38 $38.78 $0.14 -22.7% -6.1%
PSDV $4.12 $3.68 $0.00 -10.8% -6.1%
TSRA $38.94 $32.73 $0.40 -14.9% -6.1%
KORS $62.24 $43.53 $0.00 -30.1% -6.1%
DEPO $23.50 $19.82 $0.00 -15.7% -6.1%
Totals -18.8% -6.1%
8/17/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
VDSI $18.66 $17.84 $0.00 -4.4% -6.7%
SALE $9.34 $8.70 $0.00 -6.8% -6.7%
CSCO $28.95 $25.76 $0.21 -10.3% -6.7%
TGNA $25.30 $23.09 $0.14 -8.2% -6.7%
HSII $20.14 $19.43 $0.00 -3.5% -6.7%
Totals -6.7% -6.7%


That May 6th portfolio is certainly a hot mess. Not a winner in my five picks and the "best" stock  is down 10%.  Hard to believe DEPO was north of $30 just a blink of an eye ago.  I took a look at the run off from the 5 stocks I sold in May (below):

5/6/2014 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
AVG $19.57 $23.27 $0.00 18.9% 12.9%
CA $29.54 $31.41 $1.00 9.7% 12.9%
CSCO $22.79 $28.89 $0.78 30.2% 12.9%
NSR $25.82 $30.69 $0.00 18.9% 12.9%
RCII $28.78 $31.77 $0.94 13.7% 12.9%
Totals 18.3% 12.9%


In aggregate, those five stacks are down 12.5%, so definitely still a struggle. I also looked at my reject list, the stocks I considered and didn't pick... they're down 18%! I think I was just screwed.

Date Differential MFI Value R3K Value
12/1/2012 -2.20%          99,765            101,965
1/1/2013 -1.78%        102,798            104,575
2/1/2013 -2.26%        102,594            104,856
3/1/2013 -2.23%        102,881            105,114
4/1/2013 -0.43%        106,804            107,234
5/1/2013 2.00%        110,423            108,423
6/1/2013 4.75%        115,831            111,085
7/1/2013 4.29%        114,888            110,597
8/1/2013 6.91%        124,799            117,889
9/1/2013 10.46%        124,536            114,079
10/1/2013 19.67%        138,655            118,990
11/1/2013 19.75%        143,514            123,764
12/1/2013 23.70%        150,105            126,405
1/1/2014 26.63%        157,138            130,503
2/1/2014 24.70%        150,619            125,918
3/1/2014 25.66%        158,116            132,458
4/1/2014 30.38%        162,991            132,616
5/1/2014 29.65%        162,428            132,779
6/1/2014 31.44%        167,001            135,559
7/1/2014 39.23%        177,971            138,740
8/1/2014 31.13%        167,054            135,922
9/1/2014 35.90%        177,792            141,892
10/1/2014 29.38%        168,321            138,944
11/1/2014 26.14%        168,810            142,666
12/1/2014 30.22%        176,420            146,198
1/1/2015 28.17%        174,306            146,140
2/1/2015 20.63%        162,833            142,201
3/1/2015 25.15%        175,476            150,324
4/1/2015 29.95%        178,565            148,612
5/1/2015 37.31%        186,655            149,348
6/1/2015 51.53%        202,897            151,371
7/1/2015 62.69%        211,437            148,743
8/1/2015 40.75%        192,117            151,369
9/1/2015 36.41%        178,603            142,195
10/1/2015 43.12%        181,175            138,052
Current 44.07%        184,446            140,375


Physical & Pumpkin Pie

With fall here (Boom!) in full force (yesterday it was grey and rainy and didn't break 55) it is definitely pumpkin pie season.  I will be making my first pie of the season today.

Then it was interesting.  I went in for my  annual physical this week. Pretty much head to toes and I was happy to hear that everything is good.  Now I don't know about my gentle readers, but I never look forward to a physical. It is never as bad as I fear - the person drawing the blood has always done a good job ("you'll be feeling a slight pinch"); the prostate exam is a bit humiliating, but over fast enough and the flu shot was no biggie.

What was interesting was on my way to get my physical, I was listening to CNBC and a lady from Stanford has developed new blood tests that could set the industry on it's ear.  They have two huge advantages:  (1) they require much less blood (think a finger stick rather than a vein draw) and they are much cheaper (think 80% cheaper).  Her company is rolling them out at Walgreens and she is the youngest female billionaire in the USA (Elizabeth Holmes). Could be a disruptor for LH and DGX.

MFI Formula

I did start a new MFI Formula tranche this week.  It stumbled slightly out of the gate, but 51+ weeks to go. This approach is working reasonably well, although it also has it's hot mess tranche (June 30th).

10/1/2014 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
BAH $23.52 $26.21 $0.50 13.5% -0.6%
BKE $45.55 $36.97 $3.68 -10.8% -0.6%
CA $27.87 $27.30 $1.00 1.5% -0.6%
GME $41.70 $41.21 $1.41 2.2% -0.6%
NUS $44.56 $41.28 $1.40 -4.2% -0.6%
Totals 0.5% -0.6%
12/31/14 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
CA $30.83 $27.68 $0.75 -7.8% -5.0%
CSCO $28.36 $25.76 $0.82 -6.3% -5.0%
RGR $34.81 $56.45 $0.85 64.6% -5.0%
GME $34.21 $41.50 $1.08 24.5% -5.0%
IQNT $19.87 $21.38 $0.45 9.9% -5.0%
Totals 17.0% -5.0%
3/31/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
HRB $31.99 $36.57 $0.40 15.6% -6.2%
GME $37.69 $41.50 $0.72 12.0% -6.2%
KING $15.85 $13.84 $0.00 -12.7% -6.2%
NSU $3.43 $3.08 $0.08 -7.9% -6.2%
PPC $22.65 $19.85 $0.00 -12.4% -6.2%
Totals -1.1% -6.2%
7/1/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
BKE $46.45 $37.09 $0.23 -19.7% -6.2%
CA $29.34 $27.68 $0.25 -4.8% -6.2%
MSFT $44.42 $45.57 $0.31 3.3% -6.2%
QCOM $62.95 $55.07 $0.48 -11.8% -6.2%
VIAB $64.75 $44.33 $0.40 -30.9% -6.2%
Totals -12.8% -6.2%
10/1/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
BKE $36.83 $37.09 $0.00 0.7% 1.7%
IQNT $21.96 $21.38 $0.00 -2.6% 1.7%
QCOM $53.45 $55.07 $0.00 3.0% 1.7%
CSCO $26.37 $25.76 $0.21 -1.5% 1.7%
CA $27.30 $27.68 $0.00 1.4% 1.7%
Totals 0.2% 1.7%

I included the tranche that just closed for completeness.

Category/Tranche October January April July Total
Initial Investment      249,820        249,939     250,180      249,728         999,667
Current Tranche 0.2% 17.0% -1.1% -12.8% 0.8%
Previous Tranche 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Tranche -2 0.0%                 -                 -                  -   0.0%
MFI Overall Gain 0.7% 17.0% -1.1% -12.8% 1.0%
Current Balance      251,456        292,361     247,514      217,838      1,009,170
R3K Current Tranche 1.7% -5.0% -6.2% -6.2% -3.9%
R3K Overall Gain 1.1% -5.0% -6.2% -6.2% -3.9%
R3K Balance      252,635        237,436     234,645      234,314         959,030
Annualized IRR 0.6% 23.1% -2.1% -40.9% 1.5%

So one can see from 1st row that this started notionally with $1 million in four tranches a year ago. It is now $1,009,170.  Not exactly "to the moon", but better than R3K at $959,030. The struggle has been real, as I have said over and over.

MFI Micro

I was wise to step away from day to day trading in August. But my first MFI Micro portfolio, which thankfully I under-invested in, is off to a terrible start:

8/28/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
VNCE $8.50 $3.60 $0.00 -57.6% -1.9%
ONE $1.99 $2.03 $0.00 2.0% -1.9%
TPUB $11.60 $8.08 $0.00 -30.3% -1.9%
LQDT $7.26 $7.58 $0.00 4.4% -1.9%
PERI $2.45 $2.08 $0.00 -15.1% -1.9%
Totals -19.3% -1.9%

If I go to the tracking portfolio I started at the same time, here are other stocks under $250m in market cap:

Stock  Initial Price   End Price  Percent Change
NATH              33.65           38.34 13.9%
GHM              16.91           18.01 6.5%
LQDT                7.36             7.58 3.0%
LBMH                2.54             2.46 -3.1%
WILN                1.95             1.86 -4.7%
PSDV                3.94             3.68 -6.6%
VEC              24.05           22.16 -7.9%
MSB              13.02           11.79 -9.4%
CLCT              18.27           14.82 -18.9%

Who doesn't like a Nathan's Hot Dog?

Dividends and Warrants

Div and Warrants Start Current Dividend Pct Gain
BAC-WTA $6.04 $5.55 $0.00 -8.1%
AOD $8.09 $7.66 $1.50 13.3%
FSC $7.06 $6.25 $0.41 -5.7%
CSQ $9.31 $9.40 $1.76 20.0%
NTC $12.05 $12.38 $1.09 11.8%
TGONF $10.24 $9.48 $1.03 2.6%
HIG-WT $21.24 $38.55 $0.00 81.5%
O $22.41 $46.00 $17.46 183.1%
OIBAX $5.04 $5.64 $2.12 54.1%
Totals 13.2%

As I do not track these in a s detailed  a fashion as other portfolios, a little harder to see what is what.

But here is table from last week:

Div and WarrantsStartCurrentDividendPct Gain
BAC-WTA$6.09$5.95$0.00-2.3%
AOD$8.09$7.75$1.5214.5%
FSC$7.06$6.60$0.41-0.7%
CSQ$9.30$9.57$2.0725.1%
NTC$12.05$12.34$1.0911.5%
TGONF$10.24$9.76$1.035.4%
HIG-WT$21.24$38.05$0.0079.2%
O$22.41$47.06$17.26187.0%
OIBAX$5.04$5.63$2.1153.7%
Totals16.4%


So you can see it was a bad week. The BAC warrants certainly took a tumble.

But keep in mind this is about income as much as "value". So here are my quarterly dividends, adjusted by a secret factor:




Note 2015 is well above 2014 thus far. I have a projection built in for 4th quarter (which was good in 2014 due to a couple special  dividends such as KLAC).

So if I can keep ratcheting this up 5 to 10% per year - I am 56 - it could be a very nice stream at retirement.

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