Thinking Two-Bagger

Two Bagger

Wow, the month of April continues to be phenomenal. My portfolio is literally firing on all cylinders.  I am now up about 6.5% on the month.  What is stunning is how well my MFI Select portfolio has done.  This table shows the month-by-month progression.  You can see it is over $190k.  When it reaches $200k, that means it has doubled. Recall that this portfolio was re-booted 8/15/2012.  So if I can double in under three years (recall also the money was put in evenly over 4 quarters), that is exceedingly impressive. Of course, I have now officially jinxed it.

Date	Differential	MFI Value	R3K Value
12/1/2012	-2.20%	99,765	101,965
1/1/2013	-1.78%	102,798	104,575
2/1/2013	-2.26%	102,594	104,856
3/1/2013	-2.23%	102,881	105,114
4/1/2013	-0.43%	106,804	107,234
5/1/2013	2.00%	110,423	108,423
6/1/2013	4.75%	115,831	111,085
7/1/2013	4.29%	114,888	110,597
8/1/2013	6.91%	124,799	117,889
9/1/2013	10.46%	124,536	114,079
10/1/2013	19.67%	138,655	118,990
11/1/2013	19.75%	143,514	123,764
12/1/2013	23.70%	150,105	126,405
1/1/2014	26.63%	157,138	130,503
2/1/2014	24.70%	150,619	125,918
3/1/2014	25.66%	158,116	132,458
4/1/2014	30.38%	162,991	132,616
5/1/2014	29.65%	162,428	132,779
6/1/2014	31.44%	167,001	135,559
7/1/2014	39.23%	177,971	138,740
8/1/2014	31.13%	167,054	135,922
9/1/2014	35.90%	177,792	141,892
10/1/2014	29.38%	168,321	138,944
11/1/2014	26.14%	168,810	142,666
12/1/2014	30.22%	176,420	146,198
1/1/2015	28.17%	174,306	146,140
2/1/2015	20.63%	162,833	142,201
3/1/2015	25.15%	175,476	150,324
4/1/2015	29.95%	178,565	148,612
Current	41.33%	192,730	151,403

You can see in April it has exploded upwards, from 178K to 192K.  Here is a table showing the annual IRRs:

Category/Tranche	August	November	February	May	Total
Initial Investment	25,000	25,000	25,000	25,000	100,000
Current Tranche	9.6%	25.6%	24.8%	10.3%	18.1%
Previous Tranche	41.4%	14.2%	8.5%	33.0%	21.8%
Tranche -2	14.1%	43.7%	78.3%	-	34.0%
MFI Overall Gain	76.8%	106.2%	141.2%	46.7%	92.7%
Current Balance	44,210	51,549	60,293	36,678	192,730
R3K Current Tranche	9.5%	5.0%	6.5%	14.3%	8.8%
R3K Overall Gain	59.7%	64.3%	45.7%	35.9%	51.4%
R3K Balance	39,926	41,080	36,416	33,980	151,403
Annualized IRR	23.8%	34.9%	49.1%	21.8%	29.4%

29.4% annualized IRR is serious.  Starting to approach how the book did in their back-testing.

Of course the MFI Formula is cooking as well.

Date	Differential	Value
10/1/2014	0.00%	100,000
11/1/2014	1.63%	102,288
12/1/2014	0.30%	101,375
1/1/2015	-0.33%	100,664
2/1/2015	1.67%	101,281
3/1/2015	3.62%	106,073
4/1/2015	5.09%	106,781
Current	6.30%	109,442

Recall here that $25,000 is still in cash, waiting for June 30th.

Category/Tranche	October	January	April	July	Total
Initial Investment	249,820	249,939	250,180	250,000	999,939
Current Tranche	17.4%	13.8%	6.6%		9.5%
Previous Tranche	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Tranche -2	0.0%	-	-	-	0.0%
MFI Overall Gain	17.4%	13.8%	6.6%	0.0%	9.4%
Current Balance	293,226	284,405	266,787	250,000	1,094,418
R3K Current Tranche	9.0%	2.4%	1.2%	0.0%	3.2%
R3K Overall Gain	9.0%	2.4%	1.2%	0.0%	3.2%
R3K Balance	272,279	256,038	253,108	250,000	1,031,426
Annualized IRR	34.4%	56.1%	339.9%	0.0%	49.5%

A 49% IRR, though it is early days.