Tuesday, April 28, 2015

Two Weeks Until Next Tranche

May 6th 2015 Thoughts

I start a new tranche on May 6th.  It is a slow day here, I have about 40 minutes to kill. So I thought I'd write down a few of my thoughts.

First, here is the expiring tranche:

5/6/2014 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
AVG $19.57 $21.60 $0.00 10.4% 13.6%
CA $29.54 $31.86 $1.00 11.2% 13.6%
CSCO $22.79 $28.94 $0.57 29.5% 13.6%
NSR $25.82 $27.99 $0.00 8.4% 13.6%
RCII $28.78 $30.06 $0.94 7.7% 13.6%
Totals 13.4% 13.6%

It has really gained some serious ground these last few days.

Here is the current top fifty over 100 million list:

Ticker Mkt Cap Date
ACHI 543.42 24-Apr
ADMS 310.65 24-Apr
APEI 524.51 24-Apr
ANIK 569.57 24-Apr
APOL 1,884.99 24-Apr
AGX 476.53 24-Apr
HRB 8,879.50 24-Apr
BCOR 569.90 24-Apr
BRCD 5,123.71 24-Apr
BKE 2,307.73 24-Apr
CPLA 816.00 24-Apr
CSCO 147,183.70 24-Apr
CLCT 203.98 24-Apr
DEPO 1,639.16 24-Apr
ENTA 690.80 24-Apr
EGL 531.98 24-Apr
FLR 8,934.39 24-Apr
GME 4,384.47 24-Apr
GILD 155,438.80 24-Apr
GORO 183.13 24-Apr
HPQ 60,599.72 24-Apr
ONE 131.53 24-Apr
IQNT 647.70 24-Apr
IDCC 1,987.77 24-Apr
KING 5,396.03 24-Apr
KFY 1,635.69 24-Apr
LQDT 282.48 24-Apr
MSB 200.47 24-Apr
KORS 12,761.32 24-Apr
NATH 209.07 24-Apr
NHTC 280.66 24-Apr
NSR 1,537.92 24-Apr
NSU 762.67 24-Apr
NLNK 1,457.81 24-Apr
PDLI 1,131.44 24-Apr
PFMT 158.91 24-Apr
PETS 351.56 24-Apr
PPC 6,117.56 24-Apr
PBI 4,604.91 24-Apr
PSDV 122.35 24-Apr
QCOM 111,435.90 24-Apr
RPXC 846.79 24-Apr
SMT 142.96 24-Apr
STRA 582.22 24-Apr
TSRA 2,029.06 24-Apr
UIS 1,084.45 24-Apr
VEC 271.04 24-Apr
VIAB 28,812.40 24-Apr
WTW 467.78 24-Apr
WILN 319.77 24-Apr

Listing stocks I want to explore further:
  • CSCO
  • ENTA
  • FLR
  • GILD
  • HPQ
  • LQDT
  • PMFT
  • PSDV
  • NLNK

Then throw in TNH, CTCM & CBI, which do not make this list but are high in my own version of the list. Finally, I will also include MNDO, which is a bit smaller in market cap.  So a lucky 13?  I clearly need one more - oh yeah, DEPO.

CSCO - hard to ignore Goldman Sachs placing on conviction list. They have a $34 target and toss in a 3% dividend. That is nothing to sneeze at.  I do now think about whether the stock is also MFI Formula "worthy".  In this case it is.  Even selling in my May tranche, I do have CSCO in my August tranche (select) and December 31st (formula).  That seems like enough conviction. Though I will buy on July 1st should Mr Random insist.

ENTA - I will admit that I do not fully understand this stock.  they are at $37, down from $52 earlier this year.   They are a biotech company, though they do have earnings to go along with their 52 employees.  I will need to do some more research here to see what their pipeline looks like, but they will certainly make the first cut.

FLR - I took a pounding with my construction picks in August and November (AGX, FLR & CBI). They are down an average of 9.5%, though a couple months ago it was much much worse. So they have battled back. FLR feels like the least under-priced, so I will skip them.

GILD - again, pharmaceuticals have traditionally done very well in the MFI world.  Who knows, GILD is US-based and the playbook has been to roll these up (see ACT or VRX) in Ireland or the UK to get some tax-savings.  I do not know a lot about GILD, except that they have a drug that may be under some competitive fire.  Historically, I have felt that markets over-react to this fear. I think GILD makes the cut to the next round.

More to follow.

No comments: