Two Weeks Until Next Tranche

May 6th 2015 Thoughts

I start a new tranche on May 6th.  It is a slow day here, I have about 40 minutes to kill. So I thought I'd write down a few of my thoughts.

First, here is the expiring tranche:

5/6/2014	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
AVG	$19.57	$21.60	$0.00	10.4%	13.6%
CA	$29.54	$31.86	$1.00	11.2%	13.6%
CSCO	$22.79	$28.94	$0.57	29.5%	13.6%
NSR	$25.82	$27.99	$0.00	8.4%	13.6%
RCII	$28.78	$30.06	$0.94	7.7%	13.6%
Totals				13.4%	13.6%

It has really gained some serious ground these last few days.

Here is the current top fifty over 100 million list:

Ticker	Mkt Cap	Date
ACHI	543.42	24-Apr
ADMS	310.65	24-Apr
APEI	524.51	24-Apr
ANIK	569.57	24-Apr
APOL	1,884.99	24-Apr
AGX	476.53	24-Apr
HRB	8,879.50	24-Apr
BCOR	569.90	24-Apr
BRCD	5,123.71	24-Apr
BKE	2,307.73	24-Apr
CPLA	816.00	24-Apr
CSCO	147,183.70	24-Apr
CLCT	203.98	24-Apr
DEPO	1,639.16	24-Apr
ENTA	690.80	24-Apr
EGL	531.98	24-Apr
FLR	8,934.39	24-Apr
GME	4,384.47	24-Apr
GILD	155,438.80	24-Apr
GORO	183.13	24-Apr
HPQ	60,599.72	24-Apr
ONE	131.53	24-Apr
IQNT	647.70	24-Apr
IDCC	1,987.77	24-Apr
KING	5,396.03	24-Apr
KFY	1,635.69	24-Apr
LQDT	282.48	24-Apr
MSB	200.47	24-Apr
KORS	12,761.32	24-Apr
NATH	209.07	24-Apr
NHTC	280.66	24-Apr
NSR	1,537.92	24-Apr
NSU	762.67	24-Apr
NLNK	1,457.81	24-Apr
PDLI	1,131.44	24-Apr
PFMT	158.91	24-Apr
PETS	351.56	24-Apr
PPC	6,117.56	24-Apr
PBI	4,604.91	24-Apr
PSDV	122.35	24-Apr
QCOM	111,435.90	24-Apr
RPXC	846.79	24-Apr
SMT	142.96	24-Apr
STRA	582.22	24-Apr
TSRA	2,029.06	24-Apr
UIS	1,084.45	24-Apr
VEC	271.04	24-Apr
VIAB	28,812.40	24-Apr
WTW	467.78	24-Apr
WILN	319.77	24-Apr

Listing stocks I want to explore further:

• CSCO
• ENTA
• FLR
• GILD
• HPQ
• LQDT
• PMFT
• PSDV
• NLNK

Then throw in TNH, CTCM & CBI, which do not make this list but are high in my own version of the list. Finally, I will also include MNDO, which is a bit smaller in market cap.  So a lucky 13?  I clearly need one more - oh yeah, DEPO.

CSCO - hard to ignore Goldman Sachs placing on conviction list. They have a $34 target and toss in a 3% dividend. That is nothing to sneeze at.  I do now think about whether the stock is also MFI Formula "worthy".  In this case it is.  Even selling in my May tranche, I do have CSCO in my August tranche (select) and December 31st (formula).  That seems like enough conviction. Though I will buy on July 1st should Mr Random insist.

ENTA - I will admit that I do not fully understand this stock.  they are at $37, down from $52 earlier this year.   They are a biotech company, though they do have earnings to go along with their 52 employees.  I will need to do some more research here to see what their pipeline looks like, but they will certainly make the first cut.

FLR - I took a pounding with my construction picks in August and November (AGX, FLR & CBI). They are down an average of 9.5%, though a couple months ago it was much much worse. So they have battled back. FLR feels like the least under-priced, so I will skip them.

GILD - again, pharmaceuticals have traditionally done very well in the MFI world.  Who knows, GILD is US-based and the playbook has been to roll these up (see ACT or VRX) in Ireland or the UK to get some tax-savings.  I do not know a lot about GILD, except that they have a drug that may be under some competitive fire.  Historically, I have felt that markets over-react to this fear. I think GILD makes the cut to the next round.

More to follow.