Sunday, April 12, 2015

May 6th, 2015 Tranche

Upcoming Tranche

Well, it is April 12th.  I sent my federal income taxes out yesterday. Now it is time to start looking forward to my next tranche.  First, here is the current tranche:

5/6/2014 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
AVG $19.57 $21.88 $0.00 11.8% 14.1%
CA $29.54 $31.55 $1.00 10.2% 14.1%
CSCO $22.79 $28.04 $0.57 25.6% 14.1%
NSR $25.82         27.82 $0.00 7.8% 14.1%
RCII $28.78 $27.41 $0.94 -1.5% 14.1%
Totals 10.8% 14.1%

It is interesting that RCII is my anvil.  That was a stock that I felt a month afterwards should not have been on my list.  That being said, it was also a stock that started off pretty well and has only recently hit hard times.  In January it was over $34.  As I have noted several times, NSR has made a remarkable recovery.  

My May tranche so far has been my laggard.  After two tranches, 
  • August was up 61%
  • November was up 64%
  • February was up 93% while
  • May is up 47%.
I will probably add a little $ to May, just to bring it closer in size to the other three. I track those adds in my annualized internal rate of return.

I certainly do not have any "locks" to be picked.  But here are some leaders:
  • HPQ - My work has shown that larger cap stocks paying dividends have tended to do better on the screen. HPQ is both with a 1.8% yield. Also, they are splitting into two companies in 2015 and I believe that may be a catalyst.
  • MNDO - I owned this small Israeli company for a short stretch (and a nice gain) earlier this year.  They pay a very nice annual dividend and their price has dropped of late.
  • ACHI - this is a riskier pick that could really explode upwards.  They are in the process of re-stating financials, which has placed them in the penalty box.  One downside is they are very lightly traded (of course so was NHTC).
  • GILD - large pharmaceutical.  There is some concern about competition for their hepatitis drug.  I am not a medical expert, but I have noticed when pharmas come on this screen, they tend to do very well (QCOR, FRX, WRCX, VPHM, CBST and ENDP to name a few).
  • PFMT, LQDT or TZOO - my studies have shown when a stock is down by more than 30% from a year ago and still on the screen it tends to do well.  PFMT is down 60% and LQDT and TZOO are each off 45%. Actually WTW also falls in this category, but I cannot bring myself to buy them.
  • PERI - another small Israeli company that is very very cheap and does not show up on screen. I know they have had to adjust to some changes by Google that impacted their revenues. But it is likely priced in.
  • CTCM - the Russian TV station.  If tensions thaw a bit between the West and Russia, this stock could be a potential double. Might be worth the gamble. Of course you are tied a bit to the Russian economy, which has to be hurting with fall in oil.
  • NLNK - do not know much about this company, new to MFI screen.  But "genetics" is a buzz word at least worth exploring.
  • UIS - I bought them in February and they are pretty much unchanged.  A stock that has uneven earnings.  You want to buy them after they get hammered with poor earnings.  They may get hurt by strong dollar.
  • GORO - I always think about them, yet never buy.  Gold miner that is cheap.  If dollar falls in next year could be a deal.
  • RPXC - I have owned a couple times with limited success. Still cheap.
  • SJT or CRT - direct exposure to a bet on rising oil prices.
  • CBI or AGX - my construction firms I bought last year a now even cheaper.

So a lot of names on the list. Oh, also ENTA should be in the mix. I currently own as a trade.

No comments: