Wow, what a day. Light breeze. 73 degrees. Sunny. Everyone wearing shorts and showing of their pasty white legs. It is full Spring in New England. Took a nice walk, now sitting on back patio with the radio on. Our house sits perfectly. The back porch is raised (house built on a hill), it faces East, so we get the morning sun, but by early afternoon, half the porch is in shade.
My week in investing was good, then awful. The crash of NHTC really hurt, but hard to complain about a stock up 70%.
Overview
I am now up overall about 8% on the year. The R3K is up 2.3%, the MFI Index is up 2.8%. So I am pretty happy. I continue to sit on a lot of cash. I read an interesting piece that said "if you need your money in the next 8 years, stay out of the market" (Plan to Exit Stocks Within the Next 8 Years? Exit Now ). It is from a perma-bear, but there are a lot of statistics that at least make one pause.
MFI Select
I wrote the other day that this portfolio was getting close to being a double. It did fall back some on Thursday and Friday but it still continues to be terrific.
| Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain | |
| AVG | $19.57 | $21.02 | $0.00 | 7.4% | 12.9% |
| CA | $29.54 | $31.20 | $1.00 | 9.0% | 12.9% |
| $22.79 | $27.92 | $0.57 | 25.0% | 12.9% | |
| NSR | $25.82 | 27.05 | $0.00 | 4.8% | 12.9% |
| $28.78 | $25.60 | $0.94 | -7.8% | 12.9% | |
| Totals | 7.7% | 12.9% | |||
| Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain | |
| $24.40 | $27.92 | $0.59 | 16.8% | 8.1% | |
| AGX | $36.71 | $32.33 | $0.70 | -10.0% | 8.1% |
| ITRN | $21.32 | $22.90 | $0.71 | 10.7% | 8.1% |
| $9.34 | $11.70 | $0.11 | 26.4% | 8.1% | |
| $58.25 | $50.14 | $0.14 | -13.7% | 8.1% | |
| Totals | 6.1% | 8.1% | |||
| Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain | |
| $64.80 | $59.52 | $0.42 | -7.5% | 3.7% | |
| IPCM | $38.45 | $51.03 | $0.00 | 32.7% | 3.7% |
| VIAB | $72.29 | $69.14 | $0.66 | -3.4% | 3.7% |
| NHTC | $12.19 | $20.36 | $0.03 | 67.3% | 3.7% |
| AWRE | $4.40 | $4.36 | $0.00 | -0.9% | 3.7% |
| Totals | 17.6% | 3.7% | |||
| 2/1/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| VEC | $28.00 | $27.00 | $0.00 | -3.6% | 5.2% |
| $62.73 | $67.12 | $0.42 | 7.7% | 5.2% | |
| VIAB | $63.91 | $69.14 | $0.33 | 8.7% | 5.2% |
| $22.03 | $22.49 | $0.00 | 2.1% | 5.2% | |
| NHTC | $12.44 | $20.36 | $0.02 | 63.8% | 5.2% |
| Totals | 15.7% | 5.2% | |||
| Category/Tranche | August | November | February | May | Total |
| Initial Investment | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 100,000 |
| Current Tranche | 6.1% | 17.6% | 15.7% | 7.7% | 12.0% |
| Previous Tranche | 41.4% | 14.2% | 8.5% | 33.0% | 21.7% |
| Tranche -2 | 14.1% | 43.7% | 78.3% | - | 34.0% |
| MFI Overall Gain | 71.1% | 93.1% | 123.7% | 43.2% | 82.8% |
| Current Balance | 42,766 | 48,270 | 55,937 | 35,809 | 182,782 |
| R3K Current Tranche | 8.1% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 12.9% | 7.5% |
| R3K Overall Gain | 57.7% | 62.3% | 43.8% | 34.2% | 49.5% |
| R3K Balance | 39,432 | 40,571 | 35,962 | 33,562 | 149,527 |
| Annualized IRR | 22.2% | 31.2% | 44.0% | 20.2% | 27.3% |
| Date | Differential | MFI Value | R3K Value |
| -2.20% | 99,765 | 101,965 | |
| -1.78% | 102,798 | 104,575 | |
| -2.26% | 102,594 | 104,856 | |
| -2.23% | 102,881 | 105,114 | |
| -0.43% | 106,804 | 107,234 | |
| 2.00% | 110,423 | 108,423 | |
| 4.75% | 115,831 | 111,085 | |
| 4.29% | 114,888 | 110,597 | |
| 6.91% | 124,799 | 117,889 | |
| 10.46% | 124,536 | 114,079 | |
| 19.67% | 138,655 | 118,990 | |
| 19.75% | 143,514 | 123,764 | |
| 23.70% | 150,105 | 126,405 | |
| 26.63% | 157,138 | 130,503 | |
| 24.70% | 150,619 | 125,918 | |
| 25.66% | 158,116 | 132,458 | |
| 30.38% | 162,991 | 132,616 | |
| 29.65% | 162,428 | 132,779 | |
| 31.44% | 167,001 | 135,559 | |
| 39.23% | 177,971 | 138,740 | |
| 31.13% | 167,054 | 135,922 | |
| 35.90% | 177,792 | 141,892 | |
| 29.38% | 168,321 | 138,944 | |
| 26.14% | 168,810 | 142,666 | |
| 30.22% | 176,420 | 146,198 | |
| 28.17% | 174,306 | 146,140 | |
| 20.63% | 162,833 | 142,201 | |
| 25.15% | 175,476 | 150,324 | |
| 29.95% | 178,565 | 148,612 | |
| Current | 33.26% | 182,782 | 149,527 |
My May 6th tranche just has a few weeks to go. RCII really fell back the past week and this tranche is all but assured to be my third straight loser. I do have a decision to make. As my May tranches have been my worst (see the green and white table that shows the stocks have averaged "only" a 20.2% annualized IRR); that means my $ per stock in May are the smallest. Should I add some dollars in May to bring the average per stock up to the other tranches? It would be about a 30% increase per stock, so not a small sum. I think I will wait and see, but most likely not make the add as I am worried about the market being stretched and I have one more full MFI formula tranche to fund on June 30th.
MFI Formula
That seems like a perfect time to segue into this portfolio. Had quite a bit of activity here over the week. RGR "shot" upwards on good news from Smith & Wesson (not sure how many guns people need, but they always seem to be selling). BKE and GME struggled a bit.
| 10/1/2014 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BAH | $23.52 | $28.40 | $0.24 | 21.8% | 7.6% |
| $45.55 | $46.83 | $3.45 | 10.4% | 7.6% | |
| CA | $27.87 | $31.20 | $0.50 | 13.7% | 7.6% |
| $41.70 | $39.66 | $0.69 | -3.2% | 7.6% | |
| $44.56 | $58.69 | $0.70 | 33.3% | 7.6% | |
| Totals | 15.2% | 7.6% | |||
| 12/31/14 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CA | $30.83 | $31.20 | $0.25 | 2.0% | 1.2% |
| $28.36 | $27.92 | $0.40 | -0.2% | 1.2% | |
| $34.81 | $54.46 | $0.17 | 56.9% | 1.2% | |
| $34.21 | $39.66 | $0.36 | 17.0% | 1.2% | |
| IQNT | $19.87 | $17.16 | $0.15 | -12.9% | 1.2% |
| Totals | 12.6% | 1.2% | |||
| Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain | |
| $31.99 | $31.23 | $0.00 | -2.4% | -0.1% | |
| $37.69 | $39.66 | $0.00 | 5.2% | -0.1% | |
| KING | $15.85 | $17.21 | $0.00 | 8.6% | -0.1% |
| NSU | $3.43 | $3.59 | $0.00 | 4.7% | -0.1% |
| PPC | $22.65 | $24.56 | $0.00 | 8.4% | -0.1% |
| Totals | 4.9% | -0.1% |
| Date | Differential | Value |
| 0.00% | 100,000 | |
| 1.63% | 102,288 | |
| 0.30% | 101,375 | |
| -0.33% | 100,664 | |
| 1.67% | 101,281 | |
| 3.62% | 106,073 | |
| 5.09% | 106,781 | |
| Current | 5.99% | 108,156 |
Discretionary
Here are my main discretionary holdings and how they have done over time:
| Stock | Avg Cost | Current Price | Dividends | Gain per Share | Pct Gain | Pct of Portfolio |
| 37.62 | 39.66 | 0.34 | 2.38 | 6.3% | 6.1% | |
| BXE | 2.69 | 3.14 | - | 0.45 | 16.9% | 5.4% |
| AOD | 8.07 | 9.04 | 1.22 | 2.19 | 27.1% | 5.2% |
| FSC | 7.08 | 7.09 | 0.12 | 0.13 | 1.9% | 4.7% |
| BAC-WTA | 5.98 | 5.85 | - | (0.13) | -2.2% | 4.0% |
| CSQ | 9.16 | 11.37 | 2.17 | 4.38 | 47.8% | 4.0% |
| NTC | 12.04 | 12.73 | 0.77 | 1.46 | 12.2% | 3.4% |
| GNW | 7.68 | 8.02 | - | 0.34 | 4.4% | 3.0% |
| TGONF | 10.24 | 9.85 | 0.71 | 0.32 | 3.1% | 3.0% |
| HIG-WT | 21.24 | 34.00 | - | 12.76 | 3.1% | 2.2% |
Ignore the GME at the top, that is in my MFI. Interesting that BXE is now my largest disrectionary buy.
Gotta run.
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