Wednesday, April 15, 2015

Thinking Two-Bagger

Two Bagger

Wow, the month of April continues to be phenomenal. My portfolio is literally firing on all cylinders.  I am now up about 6.5% on the month.  What is stunning is how well my MFI Select portfolio has done.  This table shows the month-by-month progression.  You can see it is over $190k.  When it reaches $200k, that means it has doubled. Recall that this portfolio was re-booted 8/15/2012.  So if I can double in under three years (recall also the money was put in evenly over 4 quarters), that is exceedingly impressive. Of course, I have now officially jinxed it.

Date Differential MFI Value R3K Value
12/1/2012 -2.20%       99,765         101,965
1/1/2013 -1.78%      102,798         104,575
2/1/2013 -2.26%      102,594         104,856
3/1/2013 -2.23%      102,881         105,114
4/1/2013 -0.43%      106,804         107,234
5/1/2013 2.00%      110,423         108,423
6/1/2013 4.75%      115,831         111,085
7/1/2013 4.29%      114,888         110,597
8/1/2013 6.91%      124,799         117,889
9/1/2013 10.46%      124,536         114,079
10/1/2013 19.67%      138,655         118,990
11/1/2013 19.75%      143,514         123,764
12/1/2013 23.70%      150,105         126,405
1/1/2014 26.63%      157,138         130,503
2/1/2014 24.70%      150,619         125,918
3/1/2014 25.66%      158,116         132,458
4/1/2014 30.38%      162,991         132,616
5/1/2014 29.65%      162,428         132,779
6/1/2014 31.44%      167,001         135,559
7/1/2014 39.23%      177,971         138,740
8/1/2014 31.13%      167,054         135,922
9/1/2014 35.90%      177,792         141,892
10/1/2014 29.38%      168,321         138,944
11/1/2014 26.14%      168,810         142,666
12/1/2014 30.22%      176,420         146,198
1/1/2015 28.17%      174,306         146,140
2/1/2015 20.63%      162,833         142,201
3/1/2015 25.15%      175,476         150,324
4/1/2015 29.95%      178,565         148,612
Current 41.33%      192,730         151,403


You can see in April it has exploded upwards, from 178K to 192K.  Here is a table showing the annual IRRs:

Category/Tranche August November February May Total
Initial Investment      25,000       25,000     25,000      25,000    100,000
Current Tranche 9.6% 25.6% 24.8% 10.3% 18.1%
Previous Tranche 41.4% 14.2% 8.5% 33.0% 21.8%
Tranche -2 14.1% 43.7% 78.3%             -   34.0%
MFI Overall Gain 76.8% 106.2% 141.2% 46.7% 92.7%
Current Balance      44,210       51,549     60,293      36,678    192,730
R3K Current Tranche 9.5% 5.0% 6.5% 14.3% 8.8%
R3K Overall Gain 59.7% 64.3% 45.7% 35.9% 51.4%
R3K Balance      39,926       41,080     36,416      33,980    151,403
Annualized IRR 23.8% 34.9% 49.1% 21.8% 29.4%

29.4% annualized IRR is serious.  Starting to approach how the book did in their back-testing.

Of course the MFI Formula is cooking as well.

Date Differential Value
10/1/2014 0.00%      100,000
11/1/2014 1.63%      102,288
12/1/2014 0.30%      101,375
1/1/2015 -0.33%      100,664
2/1/2015 1.67%      101,281
3/1/2015 3.62%      106,073
4/1/2015 5.09%      106,781
Current 6.30%      109,442
Recall here that $25,000 is still in cash, waiting for June 30th.

Category/Tranche October January April July Total
Initial Investment    249,820     249,939   250,180    250,000      999,939
Current Tranche 17.4% 13.8% 6.6% 9.5%
Previous Tranche 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tranche -2 0.0%              -              -               -   0.0%
MFI Overall Gain 17.4% 13.8% 6.6% 0.0% 9.4%
Current Balance    293,226     284,405   266,787    250,000   1,094,418
R3K Current Tranche 9.0% 2.4% 1.2% 0.0% 3.2%
R3K Overall Gain 9.0% 2.4% 1.2% 0.0% 3.2%
R3K Balance    272,279     256,038   253,108    250,000   1,031,426
Annualized IRR 34.4% 56.1% 339.9% 0.0% 49.5%
A 49% IRR, though it is early days.


1 comment:

Corpraider said...

Nice! You know, one could probably scarcely envision a worse period for a strategy like the MF than the period from 2007 through last year, with the big financial crisis and destruction of value stocks and then the roar back, complete with outperformance of momentum and growth stocks. Will be interesting to see how it performs over a more "normal" period with maybe some pedestrian bear markets, killing high fliers and maybe some sideways action in the indexes.