Thursday, December 31, 2015

My New MFI Formula Tranche

Newest Tranche

Ok. Drumroll please.  The Official website is updated through 12/30/15.  That means I can run my randomizer for my five new stocks to buy today.

Interestingly, PDLI now shows a market cap under $600 million.  So it is no longer even an option (recall the stock has to be >600m market cap and a 2.4% dividend yield).  While  not a written rule, I did exclude KING, as they have been bought by ATVI  and that should close shortly.

I also made a  manual change to Yahoo Finance and included PPC.  Yahoo Finance does not always capture special  dividends that well. But on January 28th last year, they did pay a SD of $5.77. I try to pick those up when I know about them.

So here are the eligible stocks:

Number Ticker Market Cap Price Dividend Yield
1 BBY              10,505         30.46              0.92 3.0%
2 BKE                 1,504         31.01              1.00 3.2%
3 CALM                 2,305         47.53              3.00 6.3%
4 CSCO            139,908         27.53              0.84 3.1%
5 GME                 2,988         28.48              1.44 5.1%
6 HPQ              21,359         11.84              0.50 4.2%
7 IILG                    921         16.03              0.48 3.0%
8 OUTR                    649         37.64              1.20 3.2%
9 PPC                 5,787         22.32              5.77 25.9%
10 PBI                 4,122         20.82              0.75 3.6%
11 PII                 5,658         86.31              2.12 2.5%
12 QCOM              76,825         50.41              1.92 3.8%
13 VIAB              16,262         40.86              1.60 3.9%


Now my rules  allow me to discard one name from this list.  I am going to remove OUTR.  This is the company that runs the Red Box DVD rentals outside of stores.  They are the smallest company on the list and the least stable in my view.

My 5 Stocks

So from the list of 12 now.

Number Ticker Market Cap Price Dividend Yield
1 BBY              10,505         30.46              0.92 3.0%
2 BKE                 1,504         31.01              1.00 3.2%
3 CALM                 2,305         47.53              3.00 6.3%
4 CSCO            139,908         27.53              0.84 3.1%
5 GME                 2,988         28.48              1.44 5.1%
6 HPQ              21,359         11.84              0.50 4.2%
7 IILG                    921         16.03              0.48 3.0%
8 PPC                 5,787         22.32              5.77 25.9%
9 PBI                 4,122         20.82              0.75 3.6%
10 PII                 5,658         86.31              2.12 2.5%
11 QCOM              76,825         50.41              1.92 3.8%
12 VIAB              16,262         40.86              1.60 3.9%

I go to  randomizer.org and  run the routine.

Random # Stock
1 BBY
5 GME
7 IILG
8 PPC
12 VIAB

Well, the Stock Market Gods must want me to own GME.  I will get a wash ruling on them as I sold  for a  loss yesterday and will re-buy today.  I do own a fair amount of PPC and VIAB already, but so it goes.  IILG and BBY will be brand new names. I will also set up this morning the 8 rejects as a  portfolio to track.

Last Years Rejects

Last year's rejected stocks did  poorly, down about 10% here.  They actually did a bit better as this excludes most dividends.  Probably down about 8%.



Wednesday, December 30, 2015

Out With The Old

Out With The Old

As we head into 2016, it is time to wind down my 12/31/14 MFI Formula tranche.  I just sold 4 of the stocks (as they had no capital gains): CSCO, GME, CA and IQNT.  I will buy five stocks tomorrow and then sell RGR on Monday.

12/31/14 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
CA $30.83 $29.26 $1.00 -1.8% -0.1%
CSCO $28.36 $27.70 $0.82 0.6% -0.1%
RGR $34.81 $60.36 $1.10 76.5% -0.1%
GME $34.21 $28.71 $1.44 -11.9% -0.1%
IQNT $19.87 $17.78 $0.60 -7.5% -0.1%
Totals 11.2% -0.1%


The excitement is building regarding the new tranche.  I just peaked to see what the current list looks like (note, I will use tomorrow's run for official random run):


Number Ticker Market Cap Price Dividend Yield
1 BBY              10,605         30.72              0.92 3.0%
2 BKE                 1,500         30.90              1.00 3.2%
3 CALM                 2,304         48.46              3.00 6.2%
4 CSCO            141,127         27.72              0.84 3.0%
5 GME                 2,982         28.66              1.44 5.0%
6 HPQ              21,395         11.89              0.50 4.2%
7 IQNT                    614         17.80              0.60 3.4%
8 IILG                    933         16.01              0.48 3.0%
9 OUTR                    658         38.12              1.20 3.1%
10 PDLI                    612           3.65              0.60 16.4%
11 PBI                 4,146         20.93              0.75 3.6%
12 PII                 5,727         86.33              2.12 2.5%
13 QCOM              77,541         50.77              1.92 3.8%
14 VIAB              16,449         40.89              1.60 3.9%

Hmm, perhaps I should not have been so hasty to sell CSCO, GME and IQNT.  They are all potential repeats.  I would like some new names: HPQ, PII or IILG perhaps?  But I will play fairly - Mr Random will pick my five names (PDLI is out for me though).