Greetings from London! Came over here a couple days ago on a business trip. Starting to wonder if I will get back, apparently there is volcanic ash closing down the airports.
I had two of my OB Chinese stocks report this evening. It was definitely a tale of two stocks.
NEWN.OB - this is my newest stock and they earned 82 cents a share (8.31 price) in 2009. They have a market cap of 45m, they had about 6.7m in operating income and with about 3m in cash you can see they have about a 14% earnings yield. They expect to grow by 38% (New Energy Systems Group Reports Record 2009 Results) in 2010 and to increase eps to $1.23. So I fell good about my buy.
CHCG.OB - this is going down as one of my worst stocks ever (CHINA 3C GROUP Files SEC form 10-K, Annual Report). I haven't seen a press release, but frankly they have nothing to brag about. Even with the vaunted Chinese stimulus package, their results got worse every quarter in 2009. They will get sold out of my MFI portfolio shortly, but at 44 cents a share, it is a bad news story.
Not sure what happened yo BIOC, they ramped up sharply starting Tuesday afternoon (about 10%) went up a bit more Wednesday and then gave it all back today.
I gotta say, after a stellar 2009, my portfolio is not exactly en fuego, even though the broader markets meander higher. I should not complain as about 18 months ago I was 60% under water and now I am up 6% since I started MFI. But it is human nature to complain. So far this year I am up 5.9% versus the Russell 3000 being up a bit more than 9%. Looking at the stocks, it is largely my Chinese names (ceu, liwa, chcg, cmfo, cbpo, uta, and qkls) dragging me down. They are down an average of 16%. GTLS, SHE, RGR, QCOR, JCOM, BKE and ESI are my winners, up an average of 38%.
Oh well, that is all I have to say for now. Think I will turn on the telly and see if Bennie Hill is on.
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1 comment:
Dear Marsh,
Really enjoy your blog, which I check daily. Thanks for all the hard work.
Just a comment which is based on anecdotal evidence, but I have noticed quite a few of the overseas MFI stocks blow up. I wonder if the financial data is always translated accurately from foreign currencies. I know MFI is only using stocks traded on U.S. exchanges and I guess that means financials are filed with the SEC in U.S. dollars, but still I wonder if accounting standards and currency conversion could still somehow be a problem. There were a lot fewer of these situations trading on U.S. markets during much of JG's 1988-2004 studies published in the book.
Similarly, I have seen blow ups big time among OTC BB and pink sheets picks. I think of ADDL, PTSC and EZEN from the summer of 2006 lists when I first discovered MFI. These are U.S. companies, but some of the small cap overseas picks where there have been problems are BBs or pinks,too. The OTCBB and pink sheets markets have become more developed in recent years and I doubt there were many of these in the data base during a lot of the original 17 year study.
I know there have been big winners in these categories, but I have seen enough problems to wonder about the net bottom line effect of both categories.
I am raising these questions anecdotally with all the danger that implies but I don't have the data to do a real study. I wonder if anyone has done a breakdown of MFI performance by geographical location of company headquarters or a study of performance by exchange where shares are listed.
Thanks again for a great blog.
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