Saturday, April 24, 2010

New Blood to Mechanical Portfolios

Every week I check to see if there are any new stocks in the past 52 weeks to the top 30 or top 50 screen. It has been a bit of a slow slog lately. But this week we have some activity.

New to top 30: ABC
New to top 50: ABC, MD and LOV.

I went ahead and ran my calc of the key statistics for all three stocks. It appears to me that there is an error associated with ABC (too bad). I do not think they should be in the top 30 screen. (The income statement shows Cost of Goods Sold = 0.). I show two columns for ABC. The first is with what I think it should be based upon their press release and the second column is the figures per Compustat. I will include them in my mechanical portfolio, as that has been my approach on other mistakes such as RST, BPI and VRSK (it is supposed to be a mechanical approach).



abc abc lov md
+ Operating Income After Depreciation 1,019.97 19,428.53 7.98 288.93
- Minority Interest - Income Account - - - -
= Income for Calculation 1,019.97 19,428.53 7.98 288.93

Diluted Shares Outstanding 287.162 287.162 20.582 47.054

Share Price 31.13 31.13 3.45 57.02
+ Market Cap Calc 8,939.35 8,939.35 71.01 2,683.02
+ Preferred Capital - - - -
+ Debt in Current Liabilities 0.50 0.50 - 0.23
+ Long-Term Debt 1,358.51 1,358.51 - 50.21

Cash and Short-Term Investments 1,199.87 1,199.87 6.90 31.88
- Excess Cash 741.14 741.14 - -
= Enterprise Value 9,557.23 9,557.23 71.01 2,733.46












+ Property Plant and Equipment - Net 665.80 665.80 2.28 43.27
+ Receivables 3,948.48 3,948.48 0.68 170.15
+ Inventories 4,980.90 4,980.90 - -
+ Other Current Assests 37.79 37.79 1.07 90.63
+ Working Cash 458.74 458.74 7.98 85.69
- Accounts Payable 8,434.93 8,434.93 1.42 11.20
- Current Liabilities - Other 990.96 990.96 8.33 335.27
= Invested Capital 665.80 665.80 2.28 43.27
Earnings Yield 11% 203% 11% 11%
ROIC 153% 2918% 350% 668%

ABC still had an excellent quarter and may very well make the top 50 screen. ABC is involved in drug distribution for pharmas and healthcare providers. They were last on the list in Sept 2008 (pre crash) and are up 33% (not shabby) since then. I will consider buying them.

LOV must be borderline, they have flitted on and off the list mid week several times of late. They provide online matchmaking services. We'll see about buying them.

MD was also on the list a while back. They had a different symbol at one point. They were on at 1/3/09 and have close to doubled since then. As I recall they are involved with delivery of babies, perhaps those that are problematic... neonatal care I think they are also worthy of considering.

Hmm, I am really on the fence MD vs ABC. I would like to buy one of them. I have HCKT coming up in a week or so and I still have spare cash. Digging into LOV a bit as well, looks like someone made an unsolicited bid to buy them which has been "jilted" (no shortaage of pun possibilities with this stock!). Nah, LOV doesn't look promising to me. They really had a poor 4th quarter. Looks like I am back in the healthcare segment. I'll let people know next week which stock I picked.

2 comments:

Unknown said...

Hello,

I have just stumbled across "The Little Book..." and am really intrigued. I did some searching and came across your blog.

As a newbie, I don't really understand all of the technical stuff yet.

It appears that you have been using MFI for about 4+ years. Can you give me your opinion of this system to date?

Thanks!
Rodney

Marsh_Gerda said...

Welcome to my diary. I think the system works. Not quite as well as promised in the book, I do think there is more risk than the author suggested and less upside. Probably my big takeaways after 4+ years of actual money invested and 4+ years of tracking is the importance of not over-thinking, over analyzing and panicking. I suggest you make sure you hold stock a full year for better or for worse and not over-think your selections. Many of stocks on list have some "hair" on them, ie not a good "story", but you need to look at your investment as an overall portfolio. It is easy to panic or sell early when you think a stock has gone up a lot or has had bad news. I have certainly done my share of this (and still occasionally do) but I analyzed my early moves and they have essentially been churning... no real net gain.

Good luck

MG