It Ain't Necessarily So

It ain't necessarily so

It ain't necessarily so

The t'ings dat yo' li'ble

To read in de Bible,

It ain't necessarily so

I admit it. I have been mad at the Motley Fool since last year when they dissed DRYS. I sold DRYS at about $14 largely because of their write-up. Today DRYS is at $70. Even if you read it, remember, "it ain't necessarily so."

Yesterday, MF had another article that I took exception with (Frontier's Refined Buyback). In this article they came to the conclusion that Valero and Alon are better buys than FTO and WNR. This conculsion was largely driven by the revenue growth rates from analysts. I wondered about this as I recalled writing about WNR saying this next quarter was going to have much higher growth.

So I looked at the analysts and sure enough they are predicting 4% growth for WNR in 2008. BUT, it really isn't "they", but a single analyst who appear to me to be asleep at the switch. I dug into the facts and

1. WNR expects 42% more throughput in the 3rd quarter than the second quarter.
2. WNR said that the 2nd quarter was a record quarter because of higher prices and the inclusion of GI for one month.

So it seems to me that WNR will have GI revenues in 7 months of their figures in 2007 and 12 months in 2008. How can an analyst say revenues growth will only be 4% in 2008? My answer, "it ain't necessarily so." It does make me wonder how much these analysts make.

Ok, enough analyst and MF bashing. Here is my weekly chart. Remember the Magenta line shows my cumulative gain in one week increments. The blue line shows the gain of the Russell 3000 benchmark:



Then here is my list of current holgings and how they have fared. ASEI has really had a nice run. BBSI and VPHM are close to their 1 year anniversaries. You'll note I am about 20K behind the benchmark. That has been pared a lot the last two weeks as I did trail by about 35K while on vacation.

Current Portfolio
Stock	Purchase Date	Cost	Current	Gain
ASEI	10/5/2006	$45.85	$72.25	58.0%
TGB	4/16/2007	$2.64	$3.86	46.2%
FDG	3/8/2007	$25.45	$32.72	30.9%
BBSI	9/6/2006	$19.56	$24.38	26.1%
FTO	1/10/2007	$35.16	$41.03	16.8%
TCK	8/16/2007	$36.50	$42.63	16.8%
KSW	5/10/2007	$6.48	$7.50	15.8%
LRCX	7/3/2007	$47.51	$53.63	12.9%
VALU	5/29/2007	$44.01	$48.85	11.7%
THO	3/26/2007	$40.30	$43.99	9.3%
CHKE	7/17/2007	$36.70	$38.00	5.6%
DGX	3/17/2007	$52.11	$54.75	5.5%
VSNT	7/27/2007	$19.52	$20.05	2.7%
UNTD	5/1/2007	$14.51	$14.37	1.4%
JTX	4/9/2007	$28.70	$28.87	1.0%
KSWS	7/27/2007	$23.94	$24.12	0.8%
RAIL	2/16/2007	$45.54	$45.30	-0.3%
TGIS	11/30/2006	$9.18	$9.03	-0.5%
NXG	12/20/2006	$3.04	$3.00	-1.3%
WSTG	5/15/2007	$14.98	$14.37	-2.4%
WNR	7/27/2007	$53.64	$51.84	-3.4%
PNCL	2/9/2007	$17.07	$16.39	-4.0%
HGG	8/3/2007	$13.48	$12.80	-5.0%
AEO	7/10/2007	$28.42	$25.83	-8.8%
PACR	1/3/2007	$25.46	$21.62	-14.4%
CHCG.OB	6/5/2007	$5.93	$5.05	-14.8%
UG	6/13/2007	$12.09	$10.28	-14.9%
VPHM	9/11/2006	$12.11	$9.91	-18.1%
NOOF	4/27/2007	$8.59	$6.82	-19.2%
USHS	6/25/2007	$11.22	$7.95	-29.1%
IVAC	11/23/2006	$23.52	$16.34	-30.5%
EGY	12/13/2006	$6.42	$3.92	-38.9%
GVHR	4/3/2007	$19.17	$11.52	-39.0%
Gain/Loss Open Positions ($):				($3,068)
Gain/Loss Open Positions (%):				-0.5%
Gain/Loss Closed Positions ($):				$35,289
Gain/Loss Closed Positions (%):				7.3%
Total Gain/Loss ($):				$32,221
Benchmark Gain/Loss ($):				$52,543
Annual IRR:				6.4%
Total Gain/Loss (%):				5.6%

I think that is a wrap. Have a nice Labor Day weekend everyone!