Thursday, September 27, 2007

Tough Sledding

Not as fun posting when things are so-so. I can tell that staying the course will be difficult. Right now I am about 8 to 9% behind the benchmarks after more than 18 months in. That is real money. I haven't given up, but I am disheartened. I have had some success stories, but you have to look at portfolio in it's entirety. And I know it isn't just me, many of my tracking portfolios have fallen on hard times as well.

I have seen where people are commenting on volatility on the Yahoo board. There is no doubt that in this recent blood-letting that small cap stocks have generally fared much worse than big stocks.

In my current portfolio, I have 33 stocks right now. Only 8 have market caps 1b or more.
AXCA, LRCX, DGX, TCK, THO and UNTD are all in the green. Only AEO and WNR are in the red. So 75% of my $1b stocks are in the green.

Of the 25 stocks under $1b, 18 are underwater. I haven't crunched the numbers, but that seems statistically significant. 75% of stocks > $1b in green, only 28% of stocks under $1b in the green.

Does that mean we should not buy the small stocks? I don't think so. Perhaps more balance might smooth things out a bit in a given year, though I don't know that it would enhance long-term returns.

ASEI (one of my 8 small stocks in the green) hits its anniversary next week. It is up a nifty 38%. I will likely have $ for 2 stocks at that time. I am thinking about GIB, VPHM, TZOO or KG.

Still another 8 to 10 days to decide. Take care everyone!

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