Friday, February 09, 2007

PACR gets Slammed

 Wild day for a few stocks today.  PACR was crushed, down about 16%. I
haven't looked, but it had to be one of the worst stocks of the day.
Honestly, I can't figure out why it dropped so much. The numbers didn't
seem "that" bad. Perhaps something was said in the cc? But it will go on my
watch list and if it drops much further and I gain comfort that the wheel
aren't coming off, it could be a sidecar candidate.

Speaking of my sidecar, I did buy two new stocks today to take the
place of recently sold ALDA & TRLG. Well, they aren't exactly "new". I bought
EGY, just like their story. Actually got them in an early AM dip and I see
they closed up. Then I added to my OVTI. Yes, I am a glutton for punishment.
ASPV went up some, but not as much as I had hoped with their positive
earnings. I will continue to hold it in my sidecar until about $23.

Lots of other earnings news.

TBL - announced earnings at 9pm last night. I figure your earnings must
be bad if you send them out after everyone has stopped looking. They
seemed pretty putrid to me. But they "only" drooped 54 cents. PACR should have
been so putrid. I suppose it is all about expectations.

RAIL - missed by a bit and saw their back order list continue to
diminish (FreightCar America 4Q Profit Rises). I was actually hoping it would
get stomped like PACR as I was ready to buy in sidecar if it dropped to
$53.50. But it closed at 55 and change.

BBSI - announced earnings after the bell tonight ( Barrett Business Q4 earnings rise).
Small stock, so hard to tell if people are happy, but
they seemed solid to me.They made about 20% more than last year at this time
and project they'll make 17% more than 1q 2006 in 1q2007. For a stock
trading at under 14x next year's earnings, that seems very good. BBSI is exactly
the kind of company I would expect someone trying to consolidate this industry
would buy.

ANF - didn't have earningfs, but announced same store sales. They were
down 6%. Booooo! And so the early traders thought who don't read beyond a
headline as ANF started off the day down a buck-fifty. But Us longs had
the last laugh and ANF ended up $2.83 at $83.22, I think that is a 52 week
closing high. Yeah!!!! What happened? Well, I read the press release (
Abercrombie & Fitch Reports January Net Sales) and to be honest,
it made my head hurt. There is a mysterious 53rd week
in fiscal year 2006 that seems to be throwing the comparison off. So I
suppose some analysts decided that off 6% tweren't that bad with the
adjustment. The beauty of MFI is I don't really have to worry about it. I have other
things to make my head hurt.

So I guess the good news is that even with the PACR bloodbath
(officially down 16.76%), I was down in total only 0.11%. My short watch list for a
final sidecar stock is PACR and TGIS (down another 6% today).

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