High Flier

Wow, things have been busy, busy busy with the Christmas season. To use Cramer's phrase, PNCL has been "en fuego". It shot up 8% today and is now up 66%. It is actually in my IRA and I am sorely tempted to sell it. But I won't. Rather just mark today that I considered selling it at $11.15. I am not sure why it has gone up so sharply (Pinnacle Airlines Jumps to New High). I know Quantas did agree to be bought this morning, but PNCL seems totally different. Other airline stocks struggled (Sector Snap: Airline Stocks Retreat).

MGLN (I'm Gellin') gave guidance for 2007. The headlines weren't very positive (UPDATE - Magellan Health '07 profit outlook below analysts' view). The stock started the day under $42 as people panicked. But it ended just down 42 cents at $42.52. I read the guidance and I just think they're setting low expectations which they will then beat. If you look at the track record, over their past 4 quarters they have beaten estimates by about 24% on average.

My MFI portfolio now has about a 16% IRR. I am feeling good about settling in for the long haul. Every now and then I get the itchy trigger finger, but this blog helps me keep disciplined.

I took a look at my 29 stocks. 19 seem to still be on the list. The ones still on the list include:
BBSI, BLDR, DLX, EZEN, FDG, RAIL, FTO, HW, ISNS, KG, MTEX, OVTI, PACR, PTEN, PNCL, PONR, TGIS, TRLG & VPHM.

I gotta believe that CHKE is still on the list but is being updated for recent earnings.

That means ASEI, UST, MSTR, PGI, ELX, ANF, MGLN, ORCT & TBL have come off the list. Actually if you run 100 list at $1b, UST & ANF are still there. So 22 out of 29... that should mean I have plenty of upside ahead! I still haven't fully decided what I'll do if a stock is still on a list after the 12 months are. Some surely will be. The idea of minimizing transaction costs, deferring taxable gains and having my $ in stocks in which I have familiarity is extreemly tempting. Though I suppose that technically I should either buy or sell shares to make the holdings consistent with my 2007 plans.

Here is my current rankings of stocks. Overall I am up 10%. I did collect a couple more dividends. UST paid a nice one, their dividends have added over 4% in gain.

Current Portfolio
Stock	Cost	Current	Gain
PNCL	$6.68	$11.15	66.9%
UST	$39.36	$56.58	49.5%
ASEI	$45.85	$65.49	42.8%
TGIS	$10.34	$14.56	42.7%
VPHM	$11.80	$15.22	29.0%
BBSI	$19.56	$24.17	23.9%
MSTR	$94.36	$115.06	21.9%
PGI	$7.71	$9.22	19.6%
CHKE	$37.55	$42.83	19.2%
ELX	$17.85	$20.54	15.1%
ANF	$61.13	$69.25	14.1%
FTO	$28.76	$32.04	11.7%
MGLN	$38.34	$42.52	10.9%
BLDR	$15.91	$17.60	10.7%
MTEX	$13.11	$13.99	8.5%
ISNS	$13.17	$13.03	-1.1%
PTEN	$26.72	$26.08	-1.7%
DLX	$26.36	$24.81	-2.5%
KG	$17.31	$16.52	-4.6%
PONR	$30.98	$29.49	-4.8%
PACR	$32.53	$30.26	-5.6%
TBL	$34.50	$32.39	-6.1%
RAIL	$58.18	$54.37	-6.4%
TRLG	$17.02	$15.45	-9.2%
ORCT	$11.83	$10.53	-11.0%
FDG	$34.03	$23.71	-25.6%
HW	$33.04	$24.19	-26.8%
EZEN	$2.84	$2.00	-29.5%
OVTI	$27.79	$14.51	-47.8%
Current Gain/Loss ($)			$21,526
Current Gain/Loss (%)			6.6%
Sold Gain/Loss ($)			$10,050
Sold Gain/Loss (%)			25.0%
Total Gain/Loss ($)			$31,576
Benchmark Gain/Loss ($)			$36,670
Annual IRR			16.5%
Total Gain/Loss (%)			10.0%

It is a bit OT, but my International stocks as recommended by Vivian Lewis have been going crazy.

ADY: +8.6%
EN: +25%
IBN: +73%
PAY/LPMA: +60%
PVD: +12%
SBS: +76%
STP: +22%
TEVA: -4%
TRYIY: -3%

Overall my IRR is about 30% since I started a year ago. A heartfelt thank-you to Ms. Lewis!