Saturday, September 09, 2006

This Post Has No Title

Not much stock specific items worthy of comment Friday. I have underperformed the market again. Fitting, as I over-performed Thursday. PGI, which has been a sleepy company for me, re-affirmed that they are buying back 5% of their stock. That has boosted them 3% and they are now up over 6% for me.

You ever wonder why some companies buy back stock, while others pay dividends? Dividends put money directly in the hands of shareholders, while buybacks are more indirect in that you own a greater percentage of the company. I suppose companies may prefer buybacks as they can be more discretionary on when to pull the trigger. I suppose in some weird way, buybacks make more sense if the company believes their shares are under-valued.

Pretty funny. BBSI opened up in the morning at $19.81, which was about a 5% gain. I thought "wow"! However, it quickly dropped back down. I think what happened was that someone put in a buy order and transposed the digits... meaning to enter $18.91 but entering $19.81. Whoops.

On a day like this where I underperform the market, I wonder "why"? I think I must be over-weight in Energy, Basic Resources and suppliers to those types of business (like NSS). My entire portfolio is about 20% those types of firms. I did a quick run of my performance (for my entire actively managed portfolio) month-by-month in 2006.

YTD: +8.9%
January: +8.7% (should have just quit then and put $ in MM)
February: -2.8%
March: +5.3% (at this point I REALLY should have quit)
April: +3.2% (up over 15% at this point)
May: -4.3%
June: -0.3%
July: -4.5% (worst month of the year)
August: +4.8%
September (so far): -0.8%

One item that has really caught my eye is that my stocks seem either really good or really bad. It is early to really analyze MFI on my real life (plus tracking) portfolios, but it does seem that if you could figure out what differentiates the good from the bad, you would really have something. I know, I know... might as well search for the pot o' gold at the end of the rainbow or go stumping around searching for the Holy Grail. If you'd been smart enough to pick the 14 best in my February 50 Portfolio, you'd be up a snappy 27.5%. If you had somehow picked the worst 14, you'd be 21.2% in the hole.

Wow, FTO dropped another 5% Friday. I almost pulled the trigger at $28.50, it is just I have so much exposure to that sector already. Also, I rarely make good decisions right before a closing bell on a Friday.

Here is my stock-by-stock table:


Current Portfolio
Stock Cost Current Gain
UST $39.36 $54.05 40.2%
TRLG $17.02 $22.04 29.5%
PCU $78.13 $94.20 26.7%
MTEX $13.11 $15.10 15.8%
MGLN $38.34 $43.90 14.5%
ANF $61.13 $65.00 6.9%
PGI $7.71 $8.22 6.6%
PNCL $6.68 $7.00 4.8%
NSS $45.89 $46.15 0.6%
FTO $28.76 $28.57 -0.6%
BBSI $19.18 $18.93 -1.3%
TGIS $10.34 $10.02 -1.9%
RAIL $58.18 $56.66 -2.6%
MSTR $94.36 $90.71 -3.9%
CHKE $37.55 $34.86 -4.0%
ELX $17.85 $17.10 -4.2%
KG $17.31 $16.52 -4.6%
PTEN $27.74 $25.28 -8.6%
ISNS $13.17 $11.66 -11.5%
FDG $34.03 $27.77 -15.8%
TBL $34.50 $28.33 -17.9%
PACR $32.53 $26.25 -18.4%
EZEN $2.84 $2.31 -18.5%
PONR $32.97 $24.34 -26.2%
ORCT $11.83 $8.51 -28.1%
DLX $26.36 $17.28 -32.0%
PTSC $1.31 $0.82 -37.4%
HW $37.42 $21.21 -43.3%
OVTI $27.79 $15.01 -46.0%




Current Gain/Loss ($) -$21,164
Current Gain/Loss (%) -6.9%
Sold Gain/Loss ($) $5,436
Sold Gain/Loss (%) 27.1%
Total Gain/Loss ($) -$15,728
Benchmark Gain/Loss ($) $3,051
Annual IRR -18.5%
Total Gain/Loss (%) -5.5%

Here is my weekly graph, a week I hope to forget.



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