Thursday, September 21, 2006

Home on the Range

Cramer Flip-Flops

Cramer has done it again. On Friday he said the home stocks had bottomed (Jim Cramer's Stop Trading! House-Proud) and it was safe to buy them again. Then yesterday he says not to buy home builders until the Fed starts lowering rates (Notice Wells). Is it just me, or does he say different things each day? Either way, I am in with both feet with my purchase of BLDR. I have a 52 week horizon so don't need my stock to go up tomorrow (note, BLDR is down 5% for me since JC flashed the "buy" sign).

Warren Buffett

One reason to feel good about buying BLDR is it means I am aligned (somewhat) with Warren Buffett. He is buying USG, which also supplies many products that go into homebuilding. Homes will continue to be built, unless we go into a recession. They will just be a bit cheaper to buy and homebuilders will make less profit per home.

Headwaters and MFI

I think I finally understand why HW has gone up as oil prices declined. I read where federal subsidies of the synfuels kicks in when oil is under $69. So companies buying from HW (like TECO) want their purchases to be subsidized by Uncle Sam. If so, that bodes well for HW... I saw where Jubak increased his price target to $36 based upon the drop in oil prices. That would be terrific for a stock I had basically given up on. Once again it proves the strength of MFI. By making you hold the stocks for a year, you avoid making emotional decisions where you "hate" a stock for a stretch.

The Bigger They Come...

Small vs Large. It is interesting, even with 2 of my worst 3 stocks being small caps (PTSC(E) and EZEN), my small caps are out-performing.
small caps are +2.8%
LARGE CAPS are -5.5%.
That is a big differential.

More PTSC

PTSC(E) wrote a letter to shareholders today (Patriot Scientific Announces CEO Letter to Shareholders). Nothing really new in it. They did state that they expect earnings to be out on Oct 13th (hope that isn't a Friday). They continued to suggest that they are gathering a slew of cash and trying to decide what to do with the $$$.

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