Sunday, September 17, 2006

Building Consensus

Good morning everyone! I am still wrestling with my next stock purchase. I do have an order out on ASEI, so if Monday is a bad day in the stock market, it could be stock #30. What caught my eye on ASEI last week (Thursday) was that they had signed some new contracts with the Govt. The stock is trading (unfairly I believe) at about 16% below their 200 day EMA. Here is an article on new recent contracts (Big Contracts in the Pipeline for ASEI ).

The second stock which caught my eye over the weekend was BLDR. It is a Dallas company (I have a few of those with TGIS & MTEX) that sells supplies to the homebuilding industry. I know homebuilding has been in a steep decline, but that seems (to me) to be built in the price. BLDR is selling at under 6x next year's earnings. Cramer has become bullish on housing (Cramer's 'Mad Money' Recap: You Can Go Home Again). I don't listen to Cramer and his speculative plays, but I do believe he is pretty good at calling longer term trends.

I like both of these stocks. It is possible that I will buy both of them.

Below I list where my current stocks stand and a 50/500 list:

Current Portfolio
Stock Cost Current Gain
UST $39.36 $53.99 41.5%
TRLG $17.02 $22.14 30.1%
MTEX $13.11 $16.65 27.6%
PCU $78.13 $89.50 20.6%
BBSI $19.18 $21.95 14.4%
PGI $7.71 $8.67 12.4%
ANF $61.13 $68.00 11.8%
MGLN $38.34 $41.97 9.5%
VPHM $11.80 $12.55 6.4%
PNCL $6.68 $7.01 4.9%
MSTR $94.36 $95.89 1.6%
ELX $17.85 $17.75 -0.6%
CHKE $37.55 $36.12 -0.6%
TGIS $10.34 $9.83 -3.8%
KG $17.31 $16.44 -5.0%
ISNS $13.17 $12.50 -5.1%
RAIL $58.18 $52.49 -9.7%
FTO $28.76 $25.88 -9.9%
PACR $32.53 $27.70 -13.9%
TBL $34.50 $28.95 -16.1%
PTEN $27.74 $23.08 -16.2%
FDG $34.03 $26.90 -18.3%
PONR $32.97 $26.27 -20.3%
ORCT $11.83 $9.13 -22.8%
DLX $26.36 $17.53 -31.0%
HW $37.42 $23.37 -37.5%
PTSC $1.31 $0.79 -40.1%
EZEN $2.84 $1.60 -43.6%
OVTI $27.79 $15.10 -45.7%




Current Gain/Loss ($) -$19,278
Current Gain/Loss (%) -6.3%
Sold Gain/Loss ($) $9,495
Sold Gain/Loss (%) 31.5%
Total Gain/Loss ($) -$9,783
Benchmark Gain/Loss ($) $8,824
Annual IRR -8.0%
Total Gain/Loss (%) -3.2%

Top 50 companies with a minimum market cap. of $500 million
Companies are listed in alphabetical order
Name (in alphabetical order) Ticker Market Cap
($ Millions)
Pre Tax
Earnings Yield
Pre Tax
Return on Capital
Price
From
Most Recent
Quarter Data
Alon USA Energy Inc ALJ 1,294.19 17% 75 - 100% 09/15 06/30
Aspreva Pharmaceuticals Corp ASPV 874.34 15% > 100% 09/15 06/30
Axcan Pharma Inc AXCA 621.69 11% > 100% 09/15 06/30
BISYS Group Inc. (The) BSG 1,357.22 9% > 100% 09/15 03/31
Biovail Corp BVF 2,363.23 20% > 100% 09/15 06/30
Block (H&R) Inc. HRB 6,994.28 10% > 100% 09/15 07/31
Builders FirstSource Inc BLDR 561.90 21% 50 - 75% 09/15 06/30
CGI Group Inc. GIB 2,129.72 11% > 100% 09/15 06/30
Career Education Corp CECO 1,943.16 19% 75 - 100% 09/15 06/30
Claire's Stores Inc. CLE 2,666.40 10% 75 - 100% 09/15 07/31
Delek US Holdings Inc DK 903.81 22% 50 - 75% 09/15 06/30
Deluxe Corp DLX 901.30 12% > 100% 09/15 06/30
EarthLink Inc ELNK 981.02 14% > 100% 09/15 06/30
EuroZinc Mining Corp EZM 1,388.38 23% 75 - 100% 09/15 06/30
Fording Canadian Coal Trust FDG 3,954.30 20% > 100% 09/15 06/30
Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc. FCX 9,751.04 22% 50 - 75% 09/15 06/30
FreightCar America Inc RAIL 662.79 27% > 100% 09/15 06/30
Frontier Oil Corp. FTO 2,901.33 22% > 100% 09/15 06/30
Harland (John H.) Co JH 978.53 11% > 100% 09/15 06/30
Headwaters Inc HW 980.56 14% 50 - 75% 09/15 06/30
Heidrick & Struggles International Inc HSII 624.80 10% > 100% 09/15 06/30
Herbalife Ltd HLF 2,274.72 10% > 100% 09/15 06/30
Holly Corp HOC 2,279.35 16% 75 - 100% 09/15 06/30
K-Swiss Inc KSWS 1,001.52 13% 75 - 100% 09/15 06/30
Kinetic Concepts Inc KCI 2,215.59 13% 75 - 100% 09/15 06/30
King Pharmaceuticals Inc. KG 3,996.42 18% > 100% 09/15 06/30
Korn/Ferry International KFY 873.61 11% > 100% 09/15 07/31
Labor Ready Inc. LRW 885.63 14% > 100% 09/15 06/30
Lam Research Corp LRCX 5,331.48 9% > 100% 09/15 06/30
MTS Systems Corp MTSC 581.50 11% 75 - 100% 09/15 06/30
McClatchy Co (The) MNI 1,839.37 13% 50 - 75% 09/15 06/30
Middleby Corp (The) MIDD 604.58 9% > 100% 09/15 06/30
NS Group Inc. NSS 1,459.73 14% 75 - 100% 09/15 06/30
Net 1 Ueps Technologies Inc UEPS 1,177.38 9% > 100% 09/15 06/30
Nucor Corp NUE 14,417.00 17% 50 - 75% 09/15 06/30
Odyssey Healthcare Inc ODSY 539.49 9% > 100% 09/15 06/30
OmniVision Technologies Inc OVTI 822.92 24% > 100% 09/15 07/31
Pacer International Inc PACR 1,045.59 10% > 100% 09/15 06/30
Palm Inc PALM 1,528.24 12% > 100% 09/15 05/31
Patterson-UTI Energy Inc PTEN 3,832.55 24% 50 - 75% 09/15 06/30
Prestige Brands Holdings Inc PBH 568.89 9% > 100% 09/15 06/30
Southern Copper Corp PCU 13,177.08 18% 50 - 75% 09/15 06/30
Teck Cominco Ltd TCK 12,859.87 21% 50 - 75% 09/15 06/30
Thor Industries Inc. THO 2,347.85 12% 75 - 100% 09/15 04/30
United Online Inc UNTD 782.56 12% > 100% 09/15 06/30
Valassis Communications Inc. VCI 860.35 14% > 100% 09/15 06/30
ViroPharma Inc VPHM 860.89 13% > 100% 09/15 06/30
Western Digital Corp WDC 3,540.63 13% 50 - 75% 09/15 06/30
Western Refining Inc WNR 1,414.51 22% > 100% 09/15 06/30
Westwood One Inc. WON 626.69 11% > 100% 09/15 06/30

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