I was looking at my stocks this morning. I have three stocks that have essentially dropped 50% since my purchase. PTSC(E), EZEN & OVTI. Clearly, these bad boys are driving my negative results as I'd be in the green on my other 27 stocks without them. All three stocks were purchased in the past four months. It made me wonder, "what are the odds of a stock dropping by 50% in 4 months or less?" To have 10% of your holdings do that seems quite extreme.To answer the question, I took today's top 1000 stocks from the Greenblatt Scan (MF style rankings based off Yahoo Finance ). Then I looked to see how much their price has changed from May 1st to Sep 19th and from June 1st to Sep 19th. Here is what I found :
Out of the 1000 stocks, 45 have dropped by 47% or more since May 1st. 28 Stocks have dropped by 47% or more since June 1st.
So I suppose the answer is that is does happen, but 10% is unlucky. It is more likely to happen with smaller stocks, of 384 stocks with MktCap < $1b, 21 have dropped 47% or more since May. So for the entire universe, 4.5% dropped 47% or more, but for the <1b>
So I suppose the answer is that is does happen, but 10% is unlucky. It is more likely to happen with smaller stocks, of 384 stocks with MktCap < $1b, 21 have dropped 47% or more since May. So for the entire universe, 4.5% dropped 47% or more, but for the <1b>
Cramer talked in-depth about ANF last night (Cramer's 'Mad Money' Recap: Digging Into Bottoms). I suppose he was excited because he had flashed the buy sign at $55 and ANF is now north of $68. He stated that he thinks ANF can go to $88. I am sure it is standard Cramer hype, but that would certainly help the home team.
Hmmm, perhaps I was a bit hasty cursing my 3 stocks that are down so much. PTSC(E) spiked up today (+11.7%). Ironically, I had meant to buy some at the end of the day yesterday, but didn't have time. So last night I put in a buy order. It was partially filled, but less partially than I would have liked.
Not to digress, but a non-MFI stock I have been watching with interest is DVN. They were part of the trio announcing the major Gulf oil find 2+ weeks ago. Since that announcement, their price has slid 5% even though the announcement increased their proven reserves by 43%. Gotta love the rational short term mentality of the street.
Good day for the MFI team. I was up 1.2%, while IWV was up a scant 0.67%. Take that! Of course I am still trailing them by 6%.
| Current Portfolio | |||
| Stock | Cost | Current | Gain |
| UST | $39.36 | $54.10 | 41.8% |
| MTEX | $13.11 | $17.37 | 33.1% |
| TRLG | $17.02 | $22.32 | 31.1% |
| PCU | $78.13 | $87.31 | 17.8% |
| ANF | $61.13 | $71.03 | 16.8% |
| PNCL | $6.68 | $7.59 | 13.6% |
| PGI | $7.71 | $8.76 | 13.6% |
| MGLN | $38.34 | $43.40 | 13.2% |
| BBSI | $19.18 | $20.97 | 9.3% |
| VPHM | $11.80 | $12.50 | 5.9% |
| MSTR | $94.36 | $98.67 | 4.6% |
| ELX | $17.85 | $18.40 | 3.1% |
| CHKE | $37.55 | $37.17 | 2.2% |
| TGIS | $10.34 | $10.30 | 0.8% |
| BLDR | $16.10 | $15.80 | -1.9% |
| KG | $17.31 | $16.26 | -6.1% |
| ISNS | $13.17 | $12.09 | -8.2% |
| RAIL | $58.18 | $53.34 | -8.3% |
| FTO | $28.76 | $25.67 | -10.6% |
| PACR | $32.53 | $28.41 | -11.7% |
| TBL | $34.50 | $29.33 | -15.0% |
| PONR | $32.97 | $26.82 | -18.7% |
| PTEN | $27.74 | $21.93 | -20.4% |
| ORCT | $11.83 | $9.00 | -23.9% |
| FDG | $34.03 | $24.90 | -24.2% |
| DLX | $26.36 | $18.11 | -28.8% |
| HW | $37.42 | $24.11 | -35.6% |
| PTSCE | $1.31 | $0.77 | -41.6% |
| OVTI | $27.79 | $14.51 | -47.8% |
| EZEN | $2.84 | $1.41 | -50.3% |
| Current Gain/Loss ($) | -$18,276 | ||
| Current Gain/Loss (%) | -5.7% | ||
| Sold Gain/Loss ($) | $9,495 | ||
| Sold Gain/Loss (%) | 31.5% | ||
| Total Gain/Loss ($) | -$8,782 | ||
| Benchmark Gain/Loss ($) | $10,123 | ||
| Annual IRR | -7.0% | ||
| Total Gain/Loss (%) | -2.8% | ||
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