Wow - Friday was one of my best days ever. Up 3.6%. I was actually thinking I would lead this blog with "what a difference a week makes". But then I saw that I was still down 1.7% on the week. I am down 11% for 2016. Brutal.
Speaking of brutal, here is tonight's weather forecast in Hartford:
Saturday night: Windy and brutally cold with record lows possible. Low: -5 to -15. Wind chills -15 to -30.
Read more: http://www.wfsb.com/category/213686/7-day-forecast#ixzz403bLKlv9
Funny. I did not realize they were using "brutal" as well. -13 is the forecast for my town.
MFI Select
| Date | Differential | MFI Value | R3K Value |
| 12/1/2012 | -2.20% | 99,765 | 101,965 |
| 1/1/2013 | -1.78% | 102,798 | 104,575 |
| 2/1/2013 | -2.26% | 102,594 | 104,856 |
| 3/1/2013 | -2.23% | 102,881 | 105,114 |
| 4/1/2013 | -0.43% | 106,804 | 107,234 |
| 5/1/2013 | 2.00% | 110,423 | 108,423 |
| 6/1/2013 | 4.75% | 115,831 | 111,085 |
| 7/1/2013 | 4.29% | 114,888 | 110,597 |
| 8/1/2013 | 6.91% | 124,799 | 117,889 |
| 9/1/2013 | 10.46% | 124,536 | 114,079 |
| 10/1/2013 | 19.67% | 138,655 | 118,990 |
| 11/1/2013 | 19.75% | 143,514 | 123,764 |
| 12/1/2013 | 23.70% | 150,105 | 126,405 |
| 1/1/2014 | 26.63% | 157,138 | 130,503 |
| 2/1/2014 | 24.70% | 150,619 | 125,918 |
| 3/1/2014 | 25.66% | 158,116 | 132,458 |
| 4/1/2014 | 30.38% | 162,991 | 132,616 |
| 5/1/2014 | 29.65% | 162,428 | 132,779 |
| 6/1/2014 | 31.44% | 167,001 | 135,559 |
| 7/1/2014 | 39.23% | 177,971 | 138,740 |
| 8/1/2014 | 31.13% | 167,054 | 135,922 |
| 9/1/2014 | 35.90% | 177,792 | 141,892 |
| 10/1/2014 | 29.38% | 168,321 | 138,944 |
| 11/1/2014 | 26.14% | 168,810 | 142,666 |
| 12/1/2014 | 30.22% | 176,420 | 146,198 |
| 1/1/2015 | 28.17% | 174,306 | 146,140 |
| 2/1/2015 | 20.63% | 162,833 | 142,201 |
| 3/1/2015 | 25.15% | 175,476 | 150,324 |
| 4/1/2015 | 29.95% | 178,565 | 148,612 |
| 5/1/2015 | 37.31% | 186,655 | 149,348 |
| 6/1/2015 | 51.53% | 202,897 | 151,371 |
| 7/1/2015 | 62.69% | 211,437 | 148,743 |
| 8/1/2015 | 40.75% | 192,117 | 151,369 |
| 9/1/2015 | 36.41% | 178,603 | 142,195 |
| 10/1/2015 | 43.12% | 181,175 | 138,052 |
| 11/1/2015 | 69.02% | 217,959 | 148,936 |
| 12/1/2015 | 73.49% | 223,435 | 149,946 |
| 1/1/2016 | 63.33% | 209,514 | 146,186 |
| 2/1/2016 | 49.49% | 187,428 | 137,934 |
| Current | 44.22% | 176,565 | 132,340 |
The $176,565 was $181,021 last week. So not a very good week. SALE, PSDV and PPC all had very bad weeks. CSCO was a bright lone spot.
| 5/6/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CBI | $50.38 | $32.42 | $0.14 | -35.4% | -11.2% |
| PSDV | $4.12 | $2.86 | $0.00 | -30.7% | -11.2% |
| TSRA | $38.94 | $26.57 | $0.60 | -30.2% | -11.2% |
| KORS | $62.24 | $49.57 | $0.00 | -20.4% | -11.2% |
| DEPO | $23.50 | $16.07 | $0.00 | -31.6% | -11.2% |
| Totals | -29.6% | -11.2% | |||
| 8/17/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| VDSI | $18.66 | $13.66 | $0.00 | -26.8% | -11.7% |
| SALE | $9.34 | $6.53 | $0.00 | -30.1% | -11.7% |
| CSCO | $28.95 | $25.11 | $0.42 | -11.8% | -11.7% |
| TGNA | $25.30 | $22.17 | $0.28 | -11.3% | -11.7% |
| HSII | $20.14 | $22.36 | $0.26 | 12.3% | -11.7% |
| Totals | -13.5% | -11.7% | |||
| 11/15/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| LCI | $34.01 | $25.51 | - | -25.0% | -9.8% |
| SAVE | $34.48 | $44.43 | - | 28.9% | -9.8% |
| PPC | $18.98 | $22.03 | - | 16.1% | -9.8% |
| VEC | $23.60 | $18.21 | - | -22.8% | -9.8% |
| VNCE | $3.99 | $4.44 | - | 11.3% | -9.8% |
| Totals | 1.7% | -9.8% | |||
| 2/1/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| VEC | $19.64 | $18.21 | - | -7.3% | -4.1% |
| QCOM | $45.18 | $44.56 | - | -1.4% | -4.1% |
| PERI | $2.45 | $2.05 | - | -16.3% | -4.1% |
| DEPO | $15.34 | $16.07 | - | 4.8% | -4.1% |
| TDC | $24.02 | $23.07 | - | -4.0% | -4.1% |
| Totals | -4.8% | -4.1% | |||
| Category/Tranche | August | November | February | May | Total |
| Initial Investment | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 100,000 |
| Current Tranche | -13.5% | 1.7% | -4.8% | -29.6% | -11.4% |
| Previous Tranche | 11.2% | 69.4% | -14.3% | 18.3% | 60.4% |
| Tranche -2 | 41.4% | 14.2% | 8.5% | 33.0% | 24.3% |
| Tranche -3 | 14.1% | 43.7% | 78.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| MFI Overall Gain | 55.1% | 182.8% | 57.7% | 10.7% | 76.6% |
| Current Balance | 38,769 | 70,702 | 39,424 | 27,670 | 176,565 |
| R3K Current Tranche | -11.7% | -9.8% | -4.1% | -11.2% | -9.2% |
| R3K Overall Gain | 40.1% | 42.3% | 27.8% | 19.2% | 32.3% |
| R3K Balance | 35,015 | 35,583 | 31,941 | 29,802 | 132,340 |
| Annualized IRR | 13.4% | 37.7% | 16.2% | 3.7% | 20.1% |
The May tranche is almost back to where I started in May 2013. Up just 10.7% in almost 3 years. Of my three open tranches, only one (November) is winning. And compared to the broader MFI - that is terrific.
MFI Formula
| Date | Differential | Value | R3K Value |
| 10/1/2014 | 0.00% | 100,000 | 100,000 |
| 11/1/2014 | 1.63% | 102,288 | 100,658 |
| 12/1/2014 | 0.30% | 101,375 | 101,075 |
| 1/1/2015 | -0.33% | 100,664 | 100,995 |
| 2/1/2015 | 1.67% | 101,281 | 99,611 |
| 3/1/2015 | 3.62% | 106,073 | 102,454 |
| 4/1/2015 | 5.09% | 106,781 | 101,695 |
| 5/1/2015 | 5.78% | 107,859 | 102,077 |
| 6/1/2015 | 5.08% | 108,213 | 103,134 |
| 7/1/2015 | 4.82% | 106,423 | 101,604 |
| 8/1/2015 | 3.71% | 107,112 | 103,404 |
| 9/1/2015 | 4.38% | 101,523 | 97,139 |
| 10/1/2015 | 6.39% | 100,703 | 94,312 |
| 11/1/2015 | 2.93% | 104,835 | 101,907 |
| 12/1/2015 | -3.48% | 99,443 | 102,926 |
| 1/1/2016 | -3.36% | 96,830 | 100,193 |
| 2/1/2016 | -0.72% | 93,797 | 94,319 |
| Current | 0.31% | 91,000 | 90,500 |
Again, a week ago that $91,000 was $92,971. And I wasn't feeling warm and fuzzy about the 92,971.
| 3/31/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| HRB | $31.99 | $33.72 | $0.60 | 7.3% | -11.2% |
| GME | $37.69 | $26.98 | $1.08 | -25.6% | -11.2% |
| KING | $15.85 | $17.95 | $0.00 | 13.2% | -11.2% |
| NSU | $3.43 | $3.01 | $0.12 | -8.7% | -11.2% |
| PPC | $22.65 | $22.03 | $0.00 | -2.7% | -11.2% |
| Totals | -3.3% | -11.2% | |||
| 7/1/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BKE | $46.45 | $29.22 | $1.71 | -33.4% | -11.2% |
| CA | $29.34 | $27.70 | $0.50 | -3.9% | -11.2% |
| MSFT | $44.42 | $50.50 | $0.67 | 15.2% | -11.2% |
| QCOM | $62.95 | $44.56 | $0.96 | -27.7% | -11.2% |
| VIAB | $64.75 | $32.81 | $0.80 | -48.1% | -11.2% |
| Totals | -19.6% | -11.2% | |||
| 10/1/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BKE | $36.83 | $29.22 | $1.48 | -16.6% | -4.8% |
| IQNT | $21.96 | $17.58 | $0.15 | -19.3% | -4.8% |
| QCOM | $53.45 | $44.56 | $0.48 | -15.7% | -4.8% |
| CSCO | $26.37 | $25.11 | $0.42 | -3.2% | -4.8% |
| CA | $27.30 | $27.70 | $0.25 | 2.4% | -4.8% |
| Totals | -10.5% | -4.8% | |||
| 12/31/15 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BBY | $30.31 | $28.12 | $0.00 | -7.2% | -9.9% |
| GME | $28.34 | $26.98 | $0.00 | -4.8% | -9.9% |
| IILG | $15.89 | $11.10 | $0.00 | -30.1% | -9.9% |
| PPC | $22.22 | $22.03 | $0.00 | -0.8% | -9.9% |
| VIAB | $40.93 | $32.81 | $0.00 | -19.8% | -9.9% |
| Totals | -12.6% | -9.9% |
Did I mention VIAB had a bad week? Off 20%+. I loved the question from the analyst of the new head guy, who is really represents no change from the past and makes about $40 million running this struggling company:
"Given the exceedingly poor performance of Viacom over the last few years ... just wondering if you could give us color on why you were the board's choice to be both chairman and CEO?" asked Rich Greenfield, an analyst with BTIG.
Ouch.
Of course his reply was classic denial.
“Our outlook and the facts have been distorted and obscured by the naysayers, self-interested critics and publicity seekers,” Mr Dauman said.
That didn't help.
MFI Micro
Well, these are hanging in there, which frankly is not saying much.
| 8/28/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| VNCE | $8.50 | $4.44 | $0.00 | -47.8% | -7.2% |
| ONE | $1.99 | $3.62 | $0.00 | 81.9% | -7.2% |
| TPUB | $11.60 | $7.00 | $0.18 | -38.1% | -7.2% |
| LQDT | $7.26 | $4.50 | $0.00 | -38.0% | -7.2% |
| PERI | $2.45 | $2.05 | $0.00 | -16.3% | -7.2% |
| Totals | -11.7% | -7.2% | |||
| 12/15/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| MGIC | $5.38 | $5.52 | $0.00 | 2.6% | -9.6% |
| BSQR | $6.00 | $5.20 | $0.00 | -13.3% | -9.6% |
| SPCB | $4.52 | $4.65 | $0.00 | 2.9% | -9.6% |
| WLDN | $8.64 | $7.80 | $0.00 | -9.7% | -9.6% |
| MNDO | $2.58 | $2.29 | $0.00 | -11.3% | -9.6% |
| Totals | - | -5.8% | -9.6% |
TPUB had a bad week as they suspended their dividend (Tribune Publishing Company -- Moody's says cash contribution by Merrick Media and suspension of dividends are credit positive for Tribune Publishing). Looking at my old media stocks like TPUB and VIAB - I clearly under estimated the rate at which things would worsen. There are a fair number of these sorts of stocks on the official MFI lists, which I suspect is not helping MFI performance. MY MFI Index is down 11.7% for the year (my Select is down 15.7%, Micro down 12.3% and Formula down 6.8%).
Warrants & Dividends
| Div and Warrants | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | Pct Gain Last Week | Year End 2015 |
| BAC-WTA | $4.90 | $3.95 | $0.00 | -19.4% | -27.9% | -3.6% |
| AOD | $7.65 | $6.65 | $1.19 | 2.4% | 6.3% | 15.3% |
| JQC | $7.82 | $7.20 | $0.15 | -5.9% | -3.1% | 0.9% |
| CSQ | $9.04 | $8.31 | $1.58 | 9.4% | 12.1% | 27.3% |
| NTC | $12.06 | $12.83 | $1.35 | 17.6% | 17.6% | 16.1% |
| TGONF | $10.24 | $8.75 | $1.19 | -2.9% | 0.5% | 8.3% |
| HIG-WT | $21.24 | $32.80 | $0.00 | 54.4% | 55.7% | 72.9% |
| O | $22.83 | $60.48 | $17.96 | 243.6% | 223.5% | 205.7% |
| OIBAX | $5.05 | $5.43 | $2.16 | 50.4% | 52.0% | 51.9% |
| SJT | $8.79 | $4.76 | $0.16 | -44.0% | -45.4% | -51.6% |
| REXI | $5.59 | $4.27 | $0.07 | -22.5% | -17.6% | -2.8% |
| Totals | -4.0% | -3.8% | 6.2% |
I guess compared to everything else, being down 4.0% from 3.8% the prior week counts as a win. The BAC sell off in 2016 has been stunning. It was actually below $3.50 this week. I believe it is way over done and have doubled my position here in 2016. Hope I am right.
Transactions
I did dip toe in market this week as fear seemed to be rampant. I increased my BAC-WTA position by about 20% at the $3.50 price on Monday. Then Thursday I doubled my NSU shares at $2.88 (gold seems to be coming back in vogue). Finally, on Thursday I also bought a lot of JPM warrants as it had sold off insanely with the rest of global banking stocks. My price was $14.75. It popped 20% on Friday as Diman announced he was buying shares (JPM's Dimon buys $26.6M of company stock). While those are warrants - I have not yet included in my list above. I am unsure whether they are a long term hold.
Well, that is an ugly wrap of the week. I did make some good buys (so far) during the week. But those are just a few green shoots amongst a desert of tumbleweeds.
Posts
2 comments:
Hello Marsh,
Glad to know the portfolio is doing better. I had a couple of Qs, is the MFI select - few selected stocks from the magicformulainvesing page, any particular criteria your using?
And I calculated the CAGR for MFI select from 2012 is ~15.8% Is this right?
Cheers!
Kranthi - thanks for the note. On your second question, I actually show annualized IRR, which is pretty much the same as CAGR in my table. It is better than your number, 20.1%. My calculation does consider that all money was not invested in 2012 - but rather over 4 quarterly installments starting August 2012. I do also consider additional amounts I have added when a portfolio matures (generally smaller amounts).
MY MFI Select portfolios are pretty much free form. I pick what I like. I even pick stocks not on the official list at times.
Post a Comment