Another week has zipped by. This was a good week. I was up 2.9% for the week, while the index was up 1.8%. I am now down 3.7% for 2016, which feels like a win (not sure what my low water mark was, but probably down 13 or 14%).
I had some stocks with nice moves this week. Some were earnings based (BBY and IILG), while others had positive announcements (like GNW and MGIC). Then I had good timing on one new (re) buy - JPM warrants. I got them at $15.60 (I had sold a couple weeks back at $17.90) and am up already 11%.
Best Stocks This Week
- BBY +8.3% on good earnings (Best Buy Posts Better-Than-Expected Q4, Ups Dividends).
- GNW +13% on getting accounting green light (Genworth Says It Fixed Weakness in Accounting Tied to Reserves)
- GME up 8.3% on dividend hike (GameStop Increases Annual Cash Dividend).
- IILG up 9.6% on good earnings (Interval Leisure Group Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2015 Results).
- BSQR up 8.2%
- MGIC up 14.1% on earnings momentum and dividend announcement (Magic Announces Distribution of Cash Dividend for Second Half of 2015).
- VNCE up 7.7%
- REXI up 9.3%
Top Stocks for 2016
Interesting that two retailers (KORS and VNCE are #1 and #2).
MFI Select
These guys are now at -7.1% for the year. Not exactly setting the world afire. Of course a big chunk of that was NHTC dropping from $31 to $20 when I sold them in Feb. They are now back to $33. It is all about timing.
| 5/6/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CBI | $50.38 | $35.16 | $0.14 | -29.9% | -6.8% |
| PSDV | $4.12 | $2.77 | $0.00 | -32.8% | -6.8% |
| TSRA | $38.94 | $28.98 | $0.80 | -23.5% | -6.8% |
| KORS | $62.24 | $56.58 | $0.00 | -9.1% | -6.8% |
| DEPO | $23.50 | $16.35 | $0.00 | -30.4% | -6.8% |
| Totals | -25.2% | -6.8% | |||
| 8/17/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| VDSI | $18.66 | $14.46 | $0.00 | -22.5% | -7.3% |
| SALE | $9.34 | $7.88 | $0.00 | -15.6% | -7.3% |
| CSCO | $28.95 | $26.41 | $0.42 | -7.3% | -7.3% |
| TGNA | $25.30 | $24.28 | $0.28 | -2.9% | -7.3% |
| HSII | $20.14 | $23.13 | $0.26 | 16.1% | -7.3% |
| Totals | -6.5% | -7.3% | |||
| 11/15/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| LCI | $34.01 | $25.25 | - | -25.8% | -5.3% |
| SAVE | $34.48 | $48.07 | - | 39.4% | -5.3% |
| PPC | $18.98 | $23.71 | - | 24.9% | -5.3% |
| VEC | $23.60 | $19.21 | - | -18.6% | -5.3% |
| VNCE | $3.99 | $6.31 | - | 58.1% | -5.3% |
| Totals | 15.6% | -5.3% | |||
| 2/1/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| VEC | $19.64 | $19.21 | - | -2.2% | 0.7% |
| QCOM | $45.18 | $51.62 | - | 14.3% | 0.7% |
| PERI | $2.45 | $2.26 | - | -7.8% | 0.7% |
| DEPO | $15.34 | $16.35 | - | 6.6% | 0.7% |
| TDC | $24.02 | $25.11 | - | 4.5% | 0.7% |
| Totals | 3.1% | 0.7% | |||
| Category/Tranche | August | November | February | May | Total |
| Initial Investment | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 100,000 |
| Current Tranche | -6.5% | 15.6% | 3.1% | -25.2% | -3.1% |
| Previous Tranche | 11.2% | 69.4% | -14.3% | 18.3% | 61.5% |
| Tranche -2 | 41.4% | 14.2% | 8.5% | 33.0% | 24.3% |
| Tranche -3 | 14.1% | 43.7% | 78.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| MFI Overall Gain | 67.8% | 221.6% | 70.8% | 17.7% | 94.5% |
| Current Balance | 41,943 | 80,402 | 42,706 | 29,433 | 194,484 |
| R3K Current Tranche | -7.3% | -5.3% | 0.7% | -6.8% | -4.7% |
| R3K Overall Gain | 47.0% | 49.4% | 34.2% | 25.1% | 38.9% |
| R3K Balance | 36,755 | 37,359 | 33,547 | 31,274 | 138,935 |
| Annualized IRR | 15.8% | 42.7% | 19.0% | 6.0% | 25.1% |
It is great to see my 2/1 portfolio off to a strong start. The 11/15 tranche is also rocking. May is clearly the problem child, even with surge of KORS as PSDV has fallen off the table. So much for bio tech stocks.
| Date | Differential | MFI Value | R3K Value |
| 12/1/2012 | -2.20% | 99,765 | 101,965 |
| 1/1/2013 | -1.78% | 102,798 | 104,575 |
| 2/1/2013 | -2.26% | 102,594 | 104,856 |
| 3/1/2013 | -2.23% | 102,881 | 105,114 |
| 4/1/2013 | -0.43% | 106,804 | 107,234 |
| 5/1/2013 | 2.00% | 110,423 | 108,423 |
| 6/1/2013 | 4.75% | 115,831 | 111,085 |
| 7/1/2013 | 4.29% | 114,888 | 110,597 |
| 8/1/2013 | 6.91% | 124,799 | 117,889 |
| 9/1/2013 | 10.46% | 124,536 | 114,079 |
| 10/1/2013 | 19.67% | 138,655 | 118,990 |
| 11/1/2013 | 19.75% | 143,514 | 123,764 |
| 12/1/2013 | 23.70% | 150,105 | 126,405 |
| 1/1/2014 | 26.63% | 157,138 | 130,503 |
| 2/1/2014 | 24.70% | 150,619 | 125,918 |
| 3/1/2014 | 25.66% | 158,116 | 132,458 |
| 4/1/2014 | 30.38% | 162,991 | 132,616 |
| 5/1/2014 | 29.65% | 162,428 | 132,779 |
| 6/1/2014 | 31.44% | 167,001 | 135,559 |
| 7/1/2014 | 39.23% | 177,971 | 138,740 |
| 8/1/2014 | 31.13% | 167,054 | 135,922 |
| 9/1/2014 | 35.90% | 177,792 | 141,892 |
| 10/1/2014 | 29.38% | 168,321 | 138,944 |
| 11/1/2014 | 26.14% | 168,810 | 142,666 |
| 12/1/2014 | 30.22% | 176,420 | 146,198 |
| 1/1/2015 | 28.17% | 174,306 | 146,140 |
| 2/1/2015 | 20.63% | 162,833 | 142,201 |
| 3/1/2015 | 25.15% | 175,476 | 150,324 |
| 4/1/2015 | 29.95% | 178,565 | 148,612 |
| 5/1/2015 | 37.31% | 186,655 | 149,348 |
| 6/1/2015 | 51.53% | 202,897 | 151,371 |
| 7/1/2015 | 62.69% | 211,437 | 148,743 |
| 8/1/2015 | 40.75% | 192,117 | 151,369 |
| 9/1/2015 | 36.41% | 178,603 | 142,195 |
| 10/1/2015 | 43.12% | 181,175 | 138,052 |
| 11/1/2015 | 69.02% | 217,959 | 148,936 |
| 12/1/2015 | 73.49% | 223,435 | 149,946 |
| 1/1/2016 | 63.33% | 209,514 | 146,186 |
| 2/1/2016 | 49.49% | 187,428 | 137,934 |
| Current | 55.55% | 194,484 | 138,935 |
MFI Formula
Yes, we were beginning to doubt this approach. But redemption seems to be occurring as this portfolio (sit down for this) is actually in the black for 2016!!! up a mere 72 basis points, but I will take it.
| 3/31/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| HRB | $31.99 | $33.73 | $0.60 | 7.3% | -6.8% |
| GME | $37.69 | $30.54 | $1.08 | -16.1% | -6.8% |
| KING | $15.85 | $17.95 | $0.00 | 13.2% | -6.8% |
| NSU | $3.43 | $3.27 | $0.12 | -1.2% | -6.8% |
| PPC | $22.65 | $23.71 | $0.00 | 4.7% | -6.8% |
| Totals | 1.6% | -6.8% | |||
| 7/1/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BKE | $46.45 | $31.75 | $1.71 | -28.0% | -6.8% |
| CA | $29.34 | $29.38 | $0.75 | 2.7% | -6.8% |
| MSFT | $44.42 | $51.30 | $1.03 | 17.8% | -6.8% |
| QCOM | $62.95 | $51.62 | $0.96 | -16.5% | -6.8% |
| VIAB | $64.75 | $36.23 | $0.80 | -42.8% | -6.8% |
| Totals | -13.3% | -6.8% | |||
| 10/1/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BKE | $36.83 | $31.75 | $1.48 | -9.8% | 0.0% |
| IQNT | $21.96 | $17.23 | $0.30 | -20.2% | 0.0% |
| QCOM | $53.45 | $51.62 | $0.48 | -2.5% | 0.0% |
| CSCO | $26.37 | $26.41 | $0.42 | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| CA | $27.30 | $29.38 | $0.50 | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| Totals | -4.3% | 0.0% | |||
| 12/31/15 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BBY | $30.31 | $32.45 | $0.00 | 7.1% | -5.4% |
| GME | $28.34 | $30.54 | $0.00 | 7.8% | -5.4% |
| IILG | $15.89 | $13.05 | $0.00 | -17.9% | -5.4% |
| PPC | $22.22 | $23.71 | $0.00 | 6.7% | -5.4% |
| VIAB | $40.93 | $36.23 | $0.00 | -11.5% | -5.4% |
| Totals | -1.6% | -5.4% |
| Category/Tranche | October | January | April | July | Total |
| Initial Investment | 249,820 | 249,939 | 250,180 | 249,728 | 999,667 |
| Current Tranche | -4.3% | -1.6% | 1.6% | -13.3% | -4.4% |
| Previous Tranche | 0.5% | 11.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.0% |
| Tranche -2 | 0.0% | - | - | - | 0.0% |
| MFI Overall Gain | -3.8% | 9.3% | 1.6% | -13.3% | -1.6% |
| Current Balance | 240,288 | 273,140 | 254,170 | 216,389 | 983,987 |
| R3K Current Tranche | 0.0% | -5.4% | -6.8% | -6.8% | -4.8% |
| R3K Overall Gain | -0.6% | -5.6% | -6.8% | -6.8% | -4.8% |
| R3K Balance | 248,405 | 235,849 | 233,050 | 232,722 | 950,026 |
| Annualized IRR | -2.7% | 8.0% | 1.7% | -19.4% | -1.5% |
Now I know it is difficult to get excited about annualized IRR of -1.5%. But the slope recently is positive.
| Date | Differential | Value | R3K Value |
| 10/1/2014 | 0.00% | 100,000 | 100,000 |
| 11/1/2014 | 1.63% | 102,288 | 100,658 |
| 12/1/2014 | 0.30% | 101,375 | 101,075 |
| 1/1/2015 | -0.33% | 100,664 | 100,995 |
| 2/1/2015 | 1.67% | 101,281 | 99,611 |
| 3/1/2015 | 3.62% | 106,073 | 102,454 |
| 4/1/2015 | 5.09% | 106,781 | 101,695 |
| 5/1/2015 | 5.78% | 107,859 | 102,077 |
| 6/1/2015 | 5.08% | 108,213 | 103,134 |
| 7/1/2015 | 4.82% | 106,423 | 101,604 |
| 8/1/2015 | 3.71% | 107,112 | 103,404 |
| 9/1/2015 | 4.38% | 101,523 | 97,139 |
| 10/1/2015 | 6.39% | 100,703 | 94,312 |
| 11/1/2015 | 2.93% | 104,835 | 101,907 |
| 12/1/2015 | -3.48% | 99,443 | 102,926 |
| 1/1/2016 | -3.36% | 96,830 | 100,193 |
| 2/1/2016 | -0.72% | 93,797 | 94,319 |
| Current | 3.20% | 98,399 | 95,003 |
Nice move in February.
MFI Micro
Down 4% for 2016, but both tranches are winning and in the black. That has to count for something.
| 8/28/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| VNCE | $8.50 | $6.31 | $0.00 | -25.8% | -2.6% |
| ONE | $1.99 | $4.12 | $0.00 | 107.0% | -2.6% |
| TPUB | $11.60 | $7.58 | $0.18 | -33.1% | -2.6% |
| LQDT | $7.26 | $4.64 | $0.00 | -36.1% | -2.6% |
| PERI | $2.45 | $2.26 | $0.00 | -7.8% | -2.6% |
| Totals | 0.9% | -2.6% | |||
| 12/15/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| MGIC | $5.38 | $7.06 | $0.00 | 31.2% | -5.1% |
| BSQR | $6.00 | $5.29 | $0.00 | -11.8% | -5.1% |
| SPCB | $4.52 | $4.56 | $0.00 | 0.9% | -5.1% |
| WLDN | $8.64 | $7.68 | $0.00 | -11.1% | -5.1% |
| MNDO | $2.58 | $2.42 | $0.00 | -6.3% | -5.1% |
| Totals | - | 0.6% | -5.1% |
Again, you can see the importance of timing. VNCE is -25.8% here. But in my November Select tranche it is +58%. Often stocks are not bad, but the price is bad.
Dividends and Warrants
I did comment yesterday about the wonderful dividend stream I get off these names. They are down 4.8% for the year - largely BAC warrants (although REXI and TGONF have helped).
| Div and Warrants | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | Pct Gain Last Week | Year End 2015 |
| BAC-WTA | $4.90 | $3.91 | $0.00 | -20.2% | -19.6% | -3.6% |
| AOD | $7.65 | $7.00 | $1.25 | 7.7% | 5.9% | 15.3% |
| JQC | $7.82 | $7.33 | $0.15 | -4.3% | -5.2% | 0.9% |
| CSQ | $9.03 | $8.80 | $1.56 | 14.8% | 12.5% | 27.3% |
| NTC | $12.06 | $12.84 | $1.35 | 17.7% | 17.8% | 16.1% |
| TGONF | $10.24 | $8.49 | $1.19 | -5.4% | -1.8% | 8.3% |
| HIG-WT | $21.24 | $35.49 | $0.00 | 67.1% | 61.3% | 72.9% |
| O | $22.83 | $58.63 | $17.96 | 235.5% | 242.5% | 205.7% |
| OIBAX | $5.05 | $5.46 | $2.16 | 51.0% | 51.4% | 51.9% |
| SJT | $8.79 | $4.78 | $0.16 | -43.8% | -44.0% | -51.6% |
| REXI | $5.59 | $4.80 | $0.07 | -13.0% | -20.1% | -2.8% |
| Totals | -1.5% | -2.5% | 6.2% |
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment