As my readers know, I have several "versions" of the MFI approach running. (1) I have the traditional approach, where I select 5 stocks once a quarter and hold for a year. I do allow myself some flexibility in this approach and can pick stocks from my own internal screen rather than the official screen. (2) I have the formula approach, which is also once a quarter and I have set rules (a) draw 50 stocks from official screen, (b) get a subset of stocks with $600m market cap and 2.4%+ yield, (c) discard up to one stock and (d) randomly pick five stocks from that list. Finally (3) I do have two micro portfolios going which I may discontinue whenever I want.
Anyway, the formula approach (2), after struggling, seems to be working. I have my March 31st tranche counting down. It has been pretty solid and has really picked up some ground of late:
| 3/31/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| HRB | $31.99 | $33.73 | $0.60 | 7.3% | -6.8% |
| GME | $37.69 | $30.54 | $1.08 | -16.1% | -6.8% |
| KING | $15.85 | $17.95 | $0.00 | 13.6% | -6.8% |
| NSU | $3.43 | $3.27 | $0.12 | -1.2% | -6.8% |
| PPC | $22.65 | $23.71 | $0.00 | 4.7% | -6.8% |
| Totals | 1.7% | -6.8% |
Three of the five are in the black and NSU has a lot of momentum of late.
Here is what that tranche looked like at year end:
Here is what that tranche looked like at year end:
| 3/31/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| HRB | $31.99 | $33.31 | $0.60 | 6.0% | -2.0% |
| GME | $37.69 | $28.04 | $1.08 | -22.7% | -2.0% |
| KING | $15.85 | $17.65 | $0.00 | 11.3% | -2.0% |
| NSU | $3.43 | $2.71 | $0.12 | -17.5% | -2.0% |
| PPC | $22.65 | $22.09 | $0.00 | -2.5% | -2.0% |
| Totals | -5.1% | -2.0% |
So that is pretty impressive, while the index has dropped from -2% to -6.8%, these five names went from -5.1% to +1.7%. Maybe the magic is back???
Finally, here is the list of ten stocks that would be formula eligible as of today:
| Number | Ticker | Market Cap | Price | Dividend | Yield |
| 1 | BBY | 10,546 | 32.45 | 0.92 | 2.8% |
| 2 | BKE | 1,540 | 31.75 | 1.00 | 3.1% |
| 3 | CALM | 2,543 | 52.44 | 3.00 | 5.7% |
| 4 | CSCO | 133,423 | 26.41 | 1.04 | 3.9% |
| 5 | GME | 3,204 | 30.54 | 1.44 | 4.7% |
| 6 | HPQ | 18,482 | 10.64 | 0.50 | 4.7% |
| 7 | PBI | 3,554 | 18.04 | 0.75 | 4.2% |
| 8 | TSRA | 1,473 | 28.98 | 0.80 | 2.8% |
| 9 | TIME | 1,453 | 13.67 | 0.76 | 5.6% |
| 10 | VIAB | 14,351 | 36.23 | 1.60 | 4.4% |
There are a bunch of others on the fringe: CPLA, IQNT, BPT, OUTR and RCN. Of the ten above, I do not see an obvious candidate to axe, so I'd probably stand pat. After the TPUB fiasco, I am a bit gunshy of publishing stocks... so TIME is one I'd think long and hard about.
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1 comment:
Marsh,
I feeling something also. Looking at all 6 tranches +3.5%,-9.5% are in the books and are actual. March 31 is -5.4, June -2.4%, Sept +18.4%, Dec +3.8%. Might look at a few more cards and stay with this if it can beat the index.
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