March 31st Formula Tranche

Upcoming Formula Tranche

As I mentioned the other day, I just have 5 weeks left on March 31st,  2015 Formula tranche.  Here are the five stocks as they come  down the stretch:

3/31/2015	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
HRB	$31.99	$33.96	$0.60	8.0%	-8.5%
GME	$37.69	$28.19	$1.08	-22.3%	-8.5%
KING	$15.85	$17.95	$0.00	13.2%	-8.5%
NSU	$3.43	$3.22	$0.12	-2.6%	-8.5%
PPC	$22.65	$22.72	$0.00	0.3%	-8.5%
Totals				-0.7%	-8.5%

To have a shot at flat as of this point in time seems pretty good.  The KING buyout and then deciding not to sell and reinvest was a good call.

As a reminder, my Formula approach is to take the top 50 stocks greater than $100m market cap from the official screen.  I then get a subset comprised of stocks greater than $600m market cap and a yield of 2.4% or greater.

Looking at the stocks I got - one will quickly note that neither PPC or KING paid me a dividend. They were both picked because of special dividends.  My analysis so far had showed that stocks that pay special dividends do pretty well and again, at least here, that was a good call as both are in the black.

My formula approach does allow me to discard a single stock.  This has generally been PDLI as I knew their royalty stream was diminishing.  A discard (at least to me) is becoming less obvious.  At 12/31 I discarded OUTR. So far that has also been a good call as it is off 15%. I am very unsure of my ability to always pick a stock to discard - I may not if it is not clear.

Current List

Number	Ticker	Market Cap	Price	Dividend	Yield
1	BBY	10,329	29.95	0.92	3.1%
2	BKE	1,519	31.32	1.00	3.2%
3	CALM	2,393	49.35	3.00	6.1%
4	CSCO	133,653	26.55	1.04	3.9%
5	GME	2,957	28.19	1.44	5.1%
6	HPQ	18,617	10.32	0.50	4.8%
7	IILG	685	11.91	0.48	4.0%
8	PBI	3,467	17.60	0.75	4.3%
9	TSRA	1,428	28.11	0.80	2.8%
10	VIAB	13,974	35.28	1.60	4.5%

Not a long list. Dropping market cap restriction to 500m  adds more names:

Number	Ticker	Market Cap	Price	Dividend	Yield
1	BBY	10,329	29.95	0.92	3.1%
2	BPT	586	27.37	2.41	8.8%
3	BKE	1,519	31.32	1.00	3.2%
4	CALM	2,393	49.35	3.00	6.1%
5	CPLA	533	45.09	1.56	3.5%
6	CSCO	133,653	26.55	1.04	3.9%
7	GME	2,957	28.19	1.44	5.1%
8	HPQ	18,617	10.32	0.50	4.8%
9	IQNT	559	16.49	0.60	3.6%
10	IILG	685	11.91	0.48	4.0%
11	OUTR	527	31.74	1.20	3.8%
12	PDLI	509	3.11	0.20	6.4%
13	PBI	3,467	17.60	0.75	4.3%
14	RECN	514	13.85	0.40	2.9%
15	TSRA	1,428	28.11	0.80	2.8%
16	VIAB	13,974	35.28	1.60	4.5%