Saturday, February 20, 2016

March 31st Formula Tranche

Upcoming Formula Tranche

As I mentioned the other day, I just have 5 weeks left on March 31st,  2015 Formula tranche.  Here are the five stocks as they come  down the stretch:

3/31/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 HRB  $31.99 $33.96 $0.60 8.0% -8.5%
 GME  $37.69 $28.19 $1.08 -22.3% -8.5%
 KING  $15.85 $17.95 $0.00 13.2% -8.5%
 NSU  $3.43 $3.22 $0.12 -2.6% -8.5%
 PPC  $22.65 $22.72 $0.00 0.3% -8.5%
 Totals  -0.7% -8.5%


To have a shot at flat as of this point in time seems pretty good.  The KING buyout and then deciding not to sell and reinvest was a good call.

As a reminder, my Formula approach is to take the top 50 stocks greater than $100m market cap from the official screen.  I then get a subset comprised of stocks greater than $600m market cap and a yield of 2.4% or greater.

Looking at the stocks I got - one will quickly note that neither PPC or KING paid me a dividend. They were both picked because of special dividends.  My analysis so far had showed that stocks that pay special dividends do pretty well and again, at least here, that was a good call as both are in the black.

My formula approach does allow me to discard a single stock.  This has generally been PDLI as I knew their royalty stream was diminishing.  A discard (at least to me) is becoming less obvious.  At 12/31 I discarded OUTR. So far that has also been a good call as it is off 15%. I am very unsure of my ability to always pick a stock to discard - I may not if it is not clear.

Current List

Number Ticker Market Cap Price Dividend Yield
1 BBY              10,329         29.95              0.92 3.1%
2 BKE                 1,519         31.32              1.00 3.2%
3 CALM                 2,393         49.35              3.00 6.1%
4 CSCO            133,653         26.55              1.04 3.9%
5 GME                 2,957         28.19              1.44 5.1%
6 HPQ              18,617         10.32              0.50 4.8%
7 IILG                    685         11.91              0.48 4.0%
8 PBI                 3,467         17.60              0.75 4.3%
9 TSRA                 1,428         28.11              0.80 2.8%
10 VIAB              13,974         35.28              1.60 4.5%

Not a long list. Dropping market cap restriction to 500m  adds more names:

Number Ticker Market Cap Price Dividend Yield
1 BBY              10,329         29.95              0.92 3.1%
2 BPT                    586         27.37              2.41 8.8%
3 BKE                 1,519         31.32              1.00 3.2%
4 CALM                 2,393         49.35              3.00 6.1%
5 CPLA                    533         45.09              1.56 3.5%
6 CSCO            133,653         26.55              1.04 3.9%
7 GME                 2,957         28.19              1.44 5.1%
8 HPQ              18,617         10.32              0.50 4.8%
9 IQNT                    559         16.49              0.60 3.6%
10 IILG                    685         11.91              0.48 4.0%
11 OUTR                    527         31.74              1.20 3.8%
12 PDLI                    509           3.11              0.20 6.4%
13 PBI                 3,467         17.60              0.75 4.3%
14 RECN                    514         13.85              0.40 2.9%
15 TSRA                 1,428         28.11              0.80 2.8%
16 VIAB              13,974         35.28              1.60 4.5%

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