Finally a good week! And it was a very good week. I was up 5.2% as everything seemed to work and I was a stock market genius (for a week). So for the year, I am now down 6.3% - still bad but better than the R3K (off 6.7%).
Even my MFI Index is now winning (down just 5.8%). Maybe we have weathered the storm - of course if you watch CNBC or read any financial magazine you will get 20 differing views on where things are heading.
Looking at my individual stocks, VNCE was a big winner, up 32%.
Sweet.
MFI Select
This is my slacker portfolio so far this year, down 9.2%. The May tranche is horrendous, my best stocks is KORS which is down 15%. If you had told me back in July that KORS would be my best stock (it was down 30% right out of the chute), that would have been bad news - and it was.
| 5/6/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CBI | $50.38 | $33.20 | $0.14 | -33.8% | -8.4% |
| PSDV | $4.12 | $2.96 | $0.00 | -28.2% | -8.4% |
| TSRA | $38.94 | $28.11 | $0.60 | -26.3% | -8.4% |
| KORS | $62.24 | $52.73 | $0.00 | -15.3% | -8.4% |
| DEPO | $23.50 | $17.46 | $0.00 | -25.7% | -8.4% |
| Totals | -25.9% | -8.4% | |||
| 8/17/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| VDSI | $18.66 | $13.47 | $0.00 | -27.8% | -9.0% |
| SALE | $9.34 | $7.45 | $0.00 | -20.2% | -9.0% |
| CSCO | $28.95 | $26.55 | $0.42 | -6.8% | -9.0% |
| TGNA | $25.30 | $23.91 | $0.28 | -4.4% | -9.0% |
| HSII | $20.14 | $23.06 | $0.26 | 15.8% | -9.0% |
| Totals | -8.7% | -9.0% | |||
| 11/15/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| LCI | $34.01 | $24.79 | - | -27.1% | -6.9% |
| SAVE | $34.48 | $46.87 | - | 36.0% | -6.9% |
| PPC | $18.98 | $22.72 | - | 19.7% | -6.9% |
| VEC | $23.60 | $18.92 | - | -19.8% | -6.9% |
| VNCE | $3.99 | $5.86 | - | 46.9% | -6.9% |
| Totals | 11.1% | -6.9% | |||
| 2/1/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| VEC | $19.64 | $18.92 | - | -3.7% | -1.1% |
| QCOM | $45.18 | $49.42 | - | 9.4% | -1.1% |
| PERI | $2.45 | $2.27 | - | -7.3% | -1.1% |
| DEPO | $15.34 | $17.46 | - | 13.8% | -1.1% |
| TDC | $24.02 | $25.08 | - | 4.4% | -1.1% |
| Totals | 3.3% | -1.1% | |||
| Category/Tranche | August | November | February | May | Total |
| Initial Investment | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 100,000 |
| Current Tranche | -8.7% | 11.1% | 3.3% | -25.9% | -4.8% |
| Previous Tranche | 11.2% | 69.4% | -14.3% | 18.3% | 60.8% |
| Tranche -2 | 41.4% | 14.2% | 8.5% | 33.0% | 24.3% |
| Tranche -3 | 14.1% | 43.7% | 78.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| MFI Overall Gain | 63.7% | 209.1% | 71.2% | 16.6% | 90.2% |
| Current Balance | 40,936 | 77,265 | 42,803 | 29,158 | 190,162 |
| R3K Current Tranche | -9.0% | -6.9% | -1.1% | -8.4% | -6.4% |
| R3K Overall Gain | 44.4% | 46.8% | 31.8% | 22.9% | 36.5% |
| R3K Balance | 36,100 | 36,690 | 32,942 | 30,720 | 136,451 |
| Annualized IRR | 15.0% | 41.3% | 19.3% | 5.7% | 24.2% |
Nice to see that my recent Feb tranche is off to strong start as is November (+11%).
| Date | Differential | MFI Value | R3K Value |
| 12/1/2012 | -2.20% | 99,765 | 101,965 |
| 1/1/2013 | -1.78% | 102,798 | 104,575 |
| 2/1/2013 | -2.26% | 102,594 | 104,856 |
| 3/1/2013 | -2.23% | 102,881 | 105,114 |
| 4/1/2013 | -0.43% | 106,804 | 107,234 |
| 5/1/2013 | 2.00% | 110,423 | 108,423 |
| 6/1/2013 | 4.75% | 115,831 | 111,085 |
| 7/1/2013 | 4.29% | 114,888 | 110,597 |
| 8/1/2013 | 6.91% | 124,799 | 117,889 |
| 9/1/2013 | 10.46% | 124,536 | 114,079 |
| 10/1/2013 | 19.67% | 138,655 | 118,990 |
| 11/1/2013 | 19.75% | 143,514 | 123,764 |
| 12/1/2013 | 23.70% | 150,105 | 126,405 |
| 1/1/2014 | 26.63% | 157,138 | 130,503 |
| 2/1/2014 | 24.70% | 150,619 | 125,918 |
| 3/1/2014 | 25.66% | 158,116 | 132,458 |
| 4/1/2014 | 30.38% | 162,991 | 132,616 |
| 5/1/2014 | 29.65% | 162,428 | 132,779 |
| 6/1/2014 | 31.44% | 167,001 | 135,559 |
| 7/1/2014 | 39.23% | 177,971 | 138,740 |
| 8/1/2014 | 31.13% | 167,054 | 135,922 |
| 9/1/2014 | 35.90% | 177,792 | 141,892 |
| 10/1/2014 | 29.38% | 168,321 | 138,944 |
| 11/1/2014 | 26.14% | 168,810 | 142,666 |
| 12/1/2014 | 30.22% | 176,420 | 146,198 |
| 1/1/2015 | 28.17% | 174,306 | 146,140 |
| 2/1/2015 | 20.63% | 162,833 | 142,201 |
| 3/1/2015 | 25.15% | 175,476 | 150,324 |
| 4/1/2015 | 29.95% | 178,565 | 148,612 |
| 5/1/2015 | 37.31% | 186,655 | 149,348 |
| 6/1/2015 | 51.53% | 202,897 | 151,371 |
| 7/1/2015 | 62.69% | 211,437 | 148,743 |
| 8/1/2015 | 40.75% | 192,117 | 151,369 |
| 9/1/2015 | 36.41% | 178,603 | 142,195 |
| 10/1/2015 | 43.12% | 181,175 | 138,052 |
| 11/1/2015 | 69.02% | 217,959 | 148,936 |
| 12/1/2015 | 73.49% | 223,435 | 149,946 |
| 1/1/2016 | 63.33% | 209,514 | 146,186 |
| 2/1/2016 | 49.49% | 187,428 | 137,934 |
| Current | 53.71% | 190,162 | 136,451 |
So in February, I have gone from 187k to 190k while the index has declined a bit.
MFI Formula
QCOM going up has certainly helped.
| 3/31/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| HRB | $31.99 | $33.96 | $0.60 | 8.0% | -8.5% |
| GME | $37.69 | $28.19 | $1.08 | -22.3% | -8.5% |
| KING | $15.85 | $17.95 | $0.00 | 13.2% | -8.5% |
| NSU | $3.43 | $3.22 | $0.12 | -2.6% | -8.5% |
| PPC | $22.65 | $22.72 | $0.00 | 0.3% | -8.5% |
| Totals | -0.7% | -8.5% | |||
| 7/1/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BKE | $46.45 | $31.32 | $1.71 | -28.9% | -8.5% |
| CA | $29.34 | $30.01 | $0.50 | 4.0% | -8.5% |
| MSFT | $44.42 | $51.82 | $1.03 | 19.0% | -8.5% |
| QCOM | $62.95 | $49.42 | $0.96 | -20.0% | -8.5% |
| VIAB | $64.75 | $35.28 | $0.80 | -44.3% | -8.5% |
| Totals | -14.0% | -8.5% | |||
| 10/1/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BKE | $36.83 | $31.32 | $1.48 | -10.9% | -1.8% |
| IQNT | $21.96 | $16.49 | $0.15 | -24.2% | -1.8% |
| QCOM | $53.45 | $49.42 | $0.48 | -6.6% | -1.8% |
| CSCO | $26.37 | $26.55 | $0.42 | 2.3% | -1.8% |
| CA | $27.30 | $30.01 | $0.25 | 10.8% | -1.8% |
| Totals | -5.7% | -1.8% | |||
| 12/31/15 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BBY | $30.31 | $29.95 | $0.00 | -1.2% | -7.1% |
| GME | $28.34 | $28.19 | $0.00 | -0.5% | -7.1% |
| IILG | $15.89 | $11.91 | $0.00 | -25.0% | -7.1% |
| PPC | $22.22 | $22.72 | $0.00 | 2.3% | -7.1% |
| VIAB | $40.93 | $35.28 | $0.00 | -13.8% | -7.1% |
| Totals | -7.7% | -7.1% |
Still, three of the four tranches are losing. But overall, The Formula approach is beating the index for me.
| Category/Tranche | October | January | April | July | Total |
| Initial Investment | 249,820 | 249,939 | 250,180 | 249,728 | 999,667 |
| Current Tranche | -5.7% | -7.7% | -0.7% | -14.0% | -7.0% |
| Previous Tranche | 0.5% | 11.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.9% |
| Tranche -2 | 0.0% | - | - | - | 0.0% |
| MFI Overall Gain | -5.3% | 2.5% | -0.7% | -14.0% | -4.4% |
| Current Balance | 236,567 | 256,218 | 248,493 | 214,680 | 955,959 |
| R3K Current Tranche | -1.8% | -7.1% | -8.5% | -8.5% | -6.5% |
| R3K Overall Gain | -2.3% | -7.3% | -8.5% | -8.5% | -6.5% |
| R3K Balance | 243,957 | 231,597 | 228,919 | 228,596 | 933,069 |
| Annualized IRR | -3.8% | 2.2% | -0.8% | -20.9% | -4.4% |
$955,959 to $933,069.. I will get to zero more slowly.
MFI Micro
It was a very good week for many micro stocks (PERI, MGIC, VNCE and ONE).
| 8/28/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| VNCE | $8.50 | $5.86 | $0.00 | -31.1% | -4.3% |
| ONE | $1.99 | $4.00 | $0.00 | 101.0% | -4.3% |
| TPUB | $11.60 | $7.46 | $0.18 | -34.2% | -4.3% |
| LQDT | $7.26 | $4.57 | $0.00 | -37.1% | -4.3% |
| PERI | $2.45 | $2.27 | $0.00 | -7.3% | -4.3% |
| Totals | -1.7% | -4.3% | |||
| 12/15/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| MGIC | $5.38 | $6.19 | $0.00 | 15.1% | -6.8% |
| BSQR | $6.00 | $4.89 | $0.00 | -18.5% | -6.8% |
| SPCB | $4.52 | $4.43 | $0.00 | -2.0% | -6.8% |
| WLDN | $8.64 | $8.30 | $0.00 | -4.0% | -6.8% |
| MNDO | $2.58 | $2.36 | $0.00 | -8.6% | -6.8% |
| Totals | - | -3.6% | -6.8% |
So the micro approach is hanging in there. Nice to have a double in ONE. Still, 8 of 10 stocks are in the red - tough sledding.
Dividends/Warrants
| Div and Warrants | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | Pct Gain Last Week | Year End 2015 |
| BAC-WTA | $4.90 | $3.94 | $0.00 | -19.6% | -19.4% | -3.6% |
| AOD | $7.65 | $6.92 | $1.19 | 5.9% | 2.4% | 15.3% |
| JQC | $7.82 | $7.26 | $0.15 | -5.2% | -5.9% | 0.9% |
| CSQ | $9.03 | $8.59 | $1.56 | 12.5% | 9.4% | 27.3% |
| NTC | $12.06 | $12.85 | $1.35 | 17.8% | 17.6% | 16.1% |
| TGONF | $10.24 | $8.86 | $1.19 | -1.8% | -2.9% | 8.3% |
| HIG-WT | $21.24 | $34.25 | $0.00 | 61.3% | 54.4% | 72.9% |
| O | $22.83 | $60.22 | $17.96 | 242.5% | 243.6% | 205.7% |
| OIBAX | $5.05 | $5.48 | $2.16 | 51.4% | 50.4% | 51.9% |
| SJT | $8.79 | $4.76 | $0.16 | -44.0% | -44.0% | -51.6% |
| REXI | $5.59 | $4.40 | $0.07 | -20.1% | -22.5% | -2.8% |
| Totals | -2.5% | -4.0% | 6.2% |
Funny, the one stock that is really doing well is O. It was up 205% at year end and is now up 242%. I say "funny" because it is one of my smallest holdings. So funny in an ironic way. One smart move was the selling of FSC at the start of December. Recall I was concerned about management and after the GTAT fiasco was no longer willing to go with management that was unaligned with me. They are down from the $6.41 I got to $4.62. So a 25% drop. My JQC is only down 5.2%.
So I think there are some green shoots in the world of MFI. It has been a long winter, but some of my indexes and tracking portfolios are starting to improve. Fingers crossed.
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