Weekend Update From Pittsburgh

Weekend Update

In Pittsburgh today dropping so off at CMU. Freshman orientation for my son. Seems like a great campus and Pittsburgh is a cool city.  Been super busy, so posting the weekend update is late and will be quick and dirty.

Absolute disaster week.  I do not even want to think of how many paper dollars I lost.My portfolio was down a staggering 8% and is now down 12% from it's high in mid July. 12% in a month, ouch!  Not sure the drop is over yet.

I am now down 2.7% for the year, which is exactly par with the Russell 3000.  My MFI index is now down 6.4%!  Interestingly, both my MFI Select and MFI Formula portfolios are still in the black, so it is mostly my discretionary (again) picks doing the damage.  I am that guy running through the dynamite factory with a lit match.

MFI Select

11/15/2014	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
FLR	$64.80	$44.97	$0.63	-29.6%	-1.4%
IPCM	$38.45	$79.50	$0.00	106.8%	-1.4%
VIAB	$72.29	$39.87	$1.06	-43.4%	-1.4%
NHTC	$12.19	$24.95	$0.06	105.2%	-1.4%
AWRE	$4.40	$3.14	$0.00	-28.6%	-1.4%
Totals				22.1%	-1.4%
2/1/2015	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
VEC	$28.00	$25.88	$0.00	-7.6%	0.0%
QCOM	$62.73	$57.61	$0.90	-6.7%	0.0%
VIAB	$63.91	$39.87	$0.73	-36.5%	0.0%
UIS	$22.03	$13.07	$0.00	-40.7%	0.0%
NHTC	$12.44	$24.95	$0.05	101.0%	0.0%
Totals				1.9%	0.0%
5/6/2015	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
CBI	$50.38	$42.91	$0.07	-14.7%	-5.0%
PSDV	$4.12	$3.99	$0.00	-3.3%	-5.0%
TSRA	$38.94	$32.96	$0.20	-14.9%	-5.0%
KORS	$62.24	$40.08	$0.00	-35.6%	-5.0%
DEPO	$23.50	$28.75	$0.00	22.3%	-5.0%
Totals				-9.2%	-5.0%
8/17/2015	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
VDSI	$18.66	$17.65	$0.00	-5.4%	-5.5%
SALE	$9.34	$8.17	$0.00	-12.5%	-5.5%
CSCO	$28.95	$26.47	$0.00	-8.6%	-5.5%
TGNA	$25.30	$23.94	$0.00	-5.4%	-5.5%
HSII	$20.14	$20.17	$0.00	0.1%	-5.5%
Totals				-6.3%	-5.5%
Category/Tranche	August	November	February	May	Total
Initial Investment	25,000	25,000	25,000	25,000	100,000
Current Tranche	-6.3%	22.1%	1.9%	-9.2%	2.1%
Previous Tranche	11.2%	14.2%	8.5%	18.3%	16.3%
Tranche -2	41.4%	43.7%	78.3%	33.0%	49.1%
Tranche -3	14.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
MFI Overall Gain	68.0%	100.4%	97.0%	42.8%	77.0%
Current Balance	41,990	50,088	49,250	35,705	177,033
R3K Current Tranche	-5.5%	-1.4%	0.0%	-5.0%	-3.0%
R3K Overall Gain	49.9%	54.3%	36.7%	27.5%	42.1%
R3K Balance	37,469	38,577	34,187	31,878	142,111
Annualized IRR	18.7%	28.5%	30.4%	16.8%	23.9%

You can see my two most recent tranches are struggling.  Down 9% and 6.5%.

Date	Differential	MFI Value	R3K Value
12/1/2012	-2.20%	99,765	101,965
1/1/2013	-1.78%	102,798	104,575
2/1/2013	-2.26%	102,594	104,856
3/1/2013	-2.23%	102,881	105,114
4/1/2013	-0.43%	106,804	107,234
5/1/2013	2.00%	110,423	108,423
6/1/2013	4.75%	115,831	111,085
7/1/2013	4.29%	114,888	110,597
8/1/2013	6.91%	124,799	117,889
9/1/2013	10.46%	124,536	114,079
10/1/2013	19.67%	138,655	118,990
11/1/2013	19.75%	143,514	123,764
12/1/2013	23.70%	150,105	126,405
1/1/2014	26.63%	157,138	130,503
2/1/2014	24.70%	150,619	125,918
3/1/2014	25.66%	158,116	132,458
4/1/2014	30.38%	162,991	132,616
5/1/2014	29.65%	162,428	132,779
6/1/2014	31.44%	167,001	135,559
7/1/2014	39.23%	177,971	138,740
8/1/2014	31.13%	167,054	135,922
9/1/2014	35.90%	177,792	141,892
10/1/2014	29.38%	168,321	138,944
11/1/2014	26.14%	168,810	142,666
12/1/2014	30.22%	176,420	146,198
1/1/2015	28.17%	174,306	146,140
2/1/2015	20.63%	162,833	142,201
3/1/2015	25.15%	175,476	150,324
4/1/2015	29.95%	178,565	148,612
5/1/2015	37.31%	186,655	149,348
6/1/2015	51.53%	202,897	151,371
7/1/2015	62.69%	211,437	148,743
8/1/2015	40.75%	192,117	151,369
Current	34.92%	177,033	142,111

Pretty stunning that since July, my lead has gone from 62.7% to 34.5%. Whoa!

MFI Formula

10/1/2014 Stocks	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
BAH	$23.52	$26.88	$0.37	15.8%	2.3%
BKE	$45.55	$41.60	$3.68	-0.6%	2.3%
CA	$27.87	$27.33	$0.75	0.7%	2.3%
GME	$41.70	$44.83	$1.05	10.0%	2.3%
NUS	$44.56	$45.22	$1.05	3.8%	2.3%
Totals				6.0%	2.3%
12/31/14 Stocks	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
CA	$30.83	$27.33	$0.50	-9.7%	-3.8%
CSCO	$28.36	$26.47	$0.61	-4.5%	-3.8%
RGR	$34.81	$61.00	$0.85	77.7%	-3.8%
GME	$34.21	$44.83	$0.72	33.2%	-3.8%
IQNT	$19.87	$19.28	$0.45	-0.7%	-3.8%
Totals				19.2%	-3.8%
3/31/2015	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
HRB	$31.99	$33.07	$0.20	4.0%	-5.0%
GME	$37.69	$44.83	$0.36	19.9%	-5.0%
KING	$15.85	$13.00	$0.00	-18.0%	-5.0%
NSU	$3.43	$2.77	$0.04	-18.1%	-5.0%
PPC	$22.65	$21.90	$0.00	-3.3%	-5.0%
Totals				-3.1%	-5.0%
7/1/2015	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
BKE	$46.45	$41.60	$0.23	-9.9%	-5.0%
CA	$29.34	$27.33	$0.00	-6.9%	-5.0%
MSFT	$44.42	$43.07	$0.31	-2.3%	-5.0%
QCOM	$62.95	$57.61	$0.00	-8.5%	-5.0%
VIAB	$64.75	$39.87	$0.00	-38.4%	-5.0%
Totals				-13.2%	-5.0%

Again, my 7/1 tranche is down 13% in 7 weeks. It certainly isn't just me, MFI is struggling (at least the 100m+ screen).

Date	Differential	Value	R3K Value
10/1/2014	0.00%	100,000	100,000
11/1/2014	1.63%	102,288	100,658
12/1/2014	0.30%	101,375	101,075
1/1/2015	-0.33%	100,664	100,995
2/1/2015	1.67%	101,281	99,611
3/1/2015	3.62%	106,073	102,454
4/1/2015	5.09%	106,781	101,695
5/1/2015	5.78%	107,859	102,077
6/1/2015	5.08%	108,213	103,134
7/1/2015	4.82%	106,423	101,604
8/1/2015	3.71%	107,112	103,404
Current	5.10%	102,177	97,082

Not quite as distressing, while I am moving back to break even (100k), the R3K is also struggling.

Well, I'd love to continue typing depressing stuff, but need to have last meal in 3 months with son.

Have a better week everyone. Do not despair.