Crazy week for me in the markets. I had some stocks do very well and I had some others that crashed and burned. The net of it was not a very good week and a couple of the C&B stocks were pretty large holdings.
Some of it was so depressing (GNW) that it made me start to question whether I am worthy of investing. I am on vacation, so I have not exactly be scouring over the earnings reports, nor do I intend to (until I get home).
On the week, I was down 2.4%. Here was some of the action:
- BKE down 3.5% on poor same store sales (The Buckle, Inc. Reports July 2015 Net Sales).
- GNW down 31% on problems everywhere (Genworth Financial (GNW) Stock Still Falling After Earnings Results).
- NUS up 19% on better than expected earnings (Why Nu Skin Enterprises, Inc. Stock Soared Friday).
- HRB up 6% on approval to spin off bank (H&R Block Bank Divestiture Transaction Receives Regulatory Approvals).
- UCO down 13% as gas prices slide, slide, slide.
- CSIQ down 6.7%, I suppose in part due to gas prices and then China out of favor.
- TSRA up 6.5% on good earnings (Tessera Technologies Announces Second Quarter 2015 Results).
- UIS down another 7.5% on momentum.
- VIAB down 20% (my other huge hit) as media stocks had a bad week (Media stocks slammed as pay TV bundle starts unravelling).
- IPCM went up 40% as they got a buyout offer (IPC Healthcare of North Hollywood to be acquired for $1.6 billion).
- VEC was up 9.5% on good earnings (Vectrus Posts Solid Second Quarter 2015 Financial Results).
- NSU was down 7% on weak earnings and weakness in gold.
MFI Select
The good news is that my May tranche is finally doing better. August just has one week to go.
| Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain | |
| $24.40 | $28.15 | $0.80 | 18.6% | 8.1% | |
| AGX | $36.71 | $38.89 | $0.70 | 7.8% | 8.1% |
| ITRN | $21.32 | $25.77 | $0.87 | 25.0% | 8.1% |
| $9.34 | $10.14 | $0.15 | 10.2% | 8.1% | |
| $58.25 | $52.27 | $0.21 | -9.9% | 8.1% | |
| Totals | 10.3% | 8.1% | |||
| Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain | |
| $64.80 | $47.46 | $0.63 | -25.8% | 3.7% | |
| IPCM | $38.45 | $79.37 | $0.00 | 106.4% | 3.7% |
| VIAB | $72.29 | $45.47 | $1.06 | -35.6% | 3.7% |
| NHTC | $12.19 | $30.90 | $0.06 | 154.0% | 3.7% |
| AWRE | $4.40 | $3.33 | $0.00 | -24.3% | 3.7% |
| Totals | 34.9% | 3.7% | |||
| 2/1/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| VEC | $28.00 | $25.41 | $0.00 | -9.3% | 5.1% |
| $62.73 | $63.02 | $0.90 | 1.9% | 5.1% | |
| VIAB | $63.91 | $45.47 | $0.73 | -27.7% | 5.1% |
| $22.03 | $14.68 | $0.00 | -33.4% | 5.1% | |
| NHTC | $12.44 | $30.90 | $0.05 | 148.8% | 5.1% |
| Totals | 16.1% | 5.1% | |||
| Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain | |
| $50.38 | $52.27 | $0.07 | 3.9% | 0.0% | |
| PSDV | $4.12 | $4.03 | $0.00 | -2.3% | 0.0% |
| TSRA | $38.94 | $36.93 | $0.20 | -4.6% | 0.0% |
| KORS | $62.24 | $43.84 | $0.00 | -29.6% | 0.0% |
| DEPO | $23.50 | $32.79 | $0.00 | 39.5% | 0.0% |
| Totals | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Category/Tranche | August | November | February | May | Total |
| Initial Investment | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 100,000 |
| Current Tranche | 10.3% | 34.9% | 16.1% | 1.4% | 15.7% |
| Previous Tranche | 41.4% | 14.2% | 8.5% | 18.3% | 19.0% |
| Tranche -2 | 14.1% | 43.7% | 78.3% | 33.0% | 42.3% |
| MFI Overall Gain | 78.0% | 121.5% | 124.4% | 59.5% | 95.8% |
| Current Balance | 44,496 | 55,372 | 56,098 | 39,873 | 195,839 |
| R3K Current Tranche | 8.1% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 0.0% | 4.2% |
| R3K Overall Gain | 57.7% | 62.2% | 43.8% | 34.1% | 49.5% |
| R3K Balance | 39,418 | 40,556 | 35,949 | 33,528 | 149,451 |
| Annualized IRR | 21.3% | 33.8% | 37.9% | 23.0% | 29.4% |
| Date | Differential | MFI Value | R3K Value |
| -2.20% | 99,765 | 101,965 | |
| -1.78% | 102,798 | 104,575 | |
| -2.26% | 102,594 | 104,856 | |
| -2.23% | 102,881 | 105,114 | |
| -0.43% | 106,804 | 107,234 | |
| 2.00% | 110,423 | 108,423 | |
| 4.75% | 115,831 | 111,085 | |
| 4.29% | 114,888 | 110,597 | |
| 6.91% | 124,799 | 117,889 | |
| 10.46% | 124,536 | 114,079 | |
| 19.67% | 138,655 | 118,990 | |
| 19.75% | 143,514 | 123,764 | |
| 23.70% | 150,105 | 126,405 | |
| 26.63% | 157,138 | 130,503 | |
| 24.70% | 150,619 | 125,918 | |
| 25.66% | 158,116 | 132,458 | |
| 30.38% | 162,991 | 132,616 | |
| 29.65% | 162,428 | 132,779 | |
| 31.44% | 167,001 | 135,559 | |
| 39.23% | 177,971 | 138,740 | |
| 31.13% | 167,054 | 135,922 | |
| 35.90% | 177,792 | 141,892 | |
| 29.38% | 168,321 | 138,944 | |
| 26.14% | 168,810 | 142,666 | |
| 30.22% | 176,420 | 146,198 | |
| 28.17% | 174,306 | 146,140 | |
| 20.63% | 162,833 | 142,201 | |
| 25.15% | 175,476 | 150,324 | |
| 29.95% | 178,565 | 148,612 | |
| 37.31% | 186,655 | 149,348 | |
| 51.53% | 202,897 | 151,371 | |
| 62.69% | 211,437 | 148,743 | |
| 40.75% | 192,117 | 151,369 | |
| Current | 46.39% | 195,839 | 149,451 |
MFI Formula
| 10/1/2014 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BAH | $23.52 | $26.76 | $0.37 | 15.3% | 7.6% |
| $45.55 | $42.72 | $3.68 | 1.9% | 7.6% | |
| CA | $27.87 | $29.08 | $0.75 | 7.0% | 7.6% |
| $41.70 | $45.17 | $1.05 | 10.8% | 7.6% | |
| $44.56 | $47.23 | $1.05 | 8.3% | 7.6% | |
| Totals | 8.7% | 7.6% | |||
| 12/31/14 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CA | $30.83 | $29.08 | $0.50 | -4.0% | 1.1% |
| $28.36 | $28.15 | $0.61 | 1.4% | 1.1% | |
| $34.81 | $63.14 | $0.49 | 82.8% | 1.1% | |
| $34.21 | $45.17 | $0.72 | 34.1% | 1.1% | |
| IQNT | $19.87 | $17.73 | $0.30 | -9.3% | 1.1% |
| Totals | 21.0% | 1.1% | |||
| Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain | |
| $31.99 | $35.38 | $0.20 | 11.2% | -0.1% | |
| $37.69 | $45.17 | $0.36 | 20.8% | -0.1% | |
| KING | $15.85 | $15.36 | $0.00 | -3.1% | -0.1% |
| NSU | $3.43 | $2.98 | $0.04 | -12.0% | -0.1% |
| PPC | $22.65 | $22.56 | $0.00 | -0.4% | -0.1% |
| Totals | 3.3% | -0.1% | |||
| Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain | |
| $46.45 | $42.72 | $0.23 | -7.5% | -0.1% | |
| CA | $29.34 | $29.08 | $0.00 | -0.9% | -0.1% |
| $44.42 | $46.74 | $0.00 | 5.2% | -0.1% | |
| $62.95 | $63.02 | $0.00 | 0.1% | -0.1% | |
| VIAB | $64.75 | $45.47 | $0.00 | -29.8% | -0.1% |
| Totals | -6.6% | -0.1% |
You can see the July portfolio is off to a rocky start. My July rejects are up 50 basis points, so I certainly was not helped by Mr Random.
| Date | Differential | Value | R3K Value |
| 0.00% | 100,000 | 100,000 | |
| 1.63% | 102,288 | 100,658 | |
| 0.30% | 101,375 | 101,075 | |
| -0.33% | 100,664 | 100,995 | |
| 1.67% | 101,281 | 99,611 | |
| 3.62% | 106,073 | 102,454 | |
| 5.09% | 106,781 | 101,695 | |
| 5.78% | 107,859 | 102,077 | |
| 5.08% | 108,213 | 103,134 | |
| 4.82% | 106,423 | 101,604 | |
| 3.71% | 107,112 | 103,404 | |
| Current | 4.48% | 106,572 | 102,089 |
Ok. Enough chit chat. Back to my vacation. Have a great week everyone.
Posts
1 comment:
Marshall, you are a great stock picker and you should not be discouraged. Your big mistake was continuing to hold GNW when it was clear that Management could not be trusted based on their public statements v their previous earning report. They clearly knew that the LT care division was way under reserved and had no inclination to let shareholders know. There are alot of things outside management's control but forthright and honest disclosures of challenges and potential impacts to earnings are a minimum requirement and when GNW management clearly showed themselves to self interested at the expense of their shareholders you really should have ditched GNW then.
Nonetheless, I think you are proving your Magic formula hypothesis and I for one am learning alot from your choices and decisions. It's a shitty year but I really think you are far ahead of most investors. Rah! Rah!
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