Saturday, August 08, 2015

Weekend Update From San Francisco

Weekend Update

Crazy week for me in the markets. I had some stocks do very well and I had some others that crashed and burned.  The net of it was not a very good week and a couple of the C&B stocks were pretty large holdings.

Some of it was so depressing (GNW) that it made me start to question whether I am worthy of investing.  I am on vacation, so I have not exactly be scouring over the earnings reports, nor do I intend to (until I get home).

On the week, I was down 2.4%.  Here was some of the action:



MFI Select

The good news is that my May tranche is finally doing better.  August just has one week to go.


8/15/2014 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
CSCO $24.40 $28.15 $0.80 18.6% 8.1%
AGX $36.71 $38.89 $0.70 7.8% 8.1%
ITRN $21.32 $25.77 $0.87 25.0% 8.1%
BRCD $9.34 $10.14 $0.15 10.2% 8.1%
CBI $58.25 $52.27 $0.21 -9.9% 8.1%
Totals 10.3% 8.1%
11/15/2014 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
FLR $64.80 $47.46 $0.63 -25.8% 3.7%
IPCM $38.45 $79.37 $0.00 106.4% 3.7%
VIAB $72.29 $45.47 $1.06 -35.6% 3.7%
NHTC $12.19 $30.90 $0.06 154.0% 3.7%
AWRE $4.40 $3.33 $0.00 -24.3% 3.7%
Totals 34.9% 3.7%
2/1/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
VEC $28.00 $25.41 $0.00 -9.3% 5.1%
QCOM $62.73 $63.02 $0.90 1.9% 5.1%
VIAB $63.91 $45.47 $0.73 -27.7% 5.1%
UIS $22.03 $14.68 $0.00 -33.4% 5.1%
NHTC $12.44 $30.90 $0.05 148.8% 5.1%
Totals 16.1% 5.1%
5/6/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
CBI $50.38 $52.27 $0.07 3.9% 0.0%
PSDV $4.12 $4.03 $0.00 -2.3% 0.0%
TSRA $38.94 $36.93 $0.20 -4.6% 0.0%
KORS $62.24 $43.84 $0.00 -29.6% 0.0%
DEPO $23.50 $32.79 $0.00 39.5% 0.0%
Totals 1.4% 0.0%

Category/Tranche August November February May Total
Initial Investment      25,000       25,000     25,000      25,000    100,000
Current Tranche 10.3% 34.9% 16.1% 1.4% 15.7%
Previous Tranche 41.4% 14.2% 8.5% 18.3% 19.0%
Tranche -2 14.1% 43.7% 78.3% 33.0% 42.3%
MFI Overall Gain 78.0% 121.5% 124.4% 59.5% 95.8%
Current Balance      44,496       55,372     56,098      39,873    195,839
R3K Current Tranche 8.1% 3.7% 5.1% 0.0% 4.2%
R3K Overall Gain 57.7% 62.2% 43.8% 34.1% 49.5%
R3K Balance      39,418       40,556     35,949      33,528    149,451
Annualized IRR 21.3% 33.8% 37.9% 23.0% 29.4%
Date Differential MFI Value R3K Value
12/1/2012 -2.20%       99,765         101,965
1/1/2013 -1.78%      102,798         104,575
2/1/2013 -2.26%      102,594         104,856
3/1/2013 -2.23%      102,881         105,114
4/1/2013 -0.43%      106,804         107,234
5/1/2013 2.00%      110,423         108,423
6/1/2013 4.75%      115,831         111,085
7/1/2013 4.29%      114,888         110,597
8/1/2013 6.91%      124,799         117,889
9/1/2013 10.46%      124,536         114,079
10/1/2013 19.67%      138,655         118,990
11/1/2013 19.75%      143,514         123,764
12/1/2013 23.70%      150,105         126,405
1/1/2014 26.63%      157,138         130,503
2/1/2014 24.70%      150,619         125,918
3/1/2014 25.66%      158,116         132,458
4/1/2014 30.38%      162,991         132,616
5/1/2014 29.65%      162,428         132,779
6/1/2014 31.44%      167,001         135,559
7/1/2014 39.23%      177,971         138,740
8/1/2014 31.13%      167,054         135,922
9/1/2014 35.90%      177,792         141,892
10/1/2014 29.38%      168,321         138,944
11/1/2014 26.14%      168,810         142,666
12/1/2014 30.22%      176,420         146,198
1/1/2015 28.17%      174,306         146,140
2/1/2015 20.63%      162,833         142,201
3/1/2015 25.15%      175,476         150,324
4/1/2015 29.95%      178,565         148,612
5/1/2015 37.31%      186,655         149,348
6/1/2015 51.53%      202,897         151,371
7/1/2015 62.69%      211,437         148,743
8/1/2015 40.75%      192,117         151,369
Current 46.39%      195,839         149,451

MFI Formula

10/1/2014 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
BAH $23.52 $26.76 $0.37 15.3% 7.6%
BKE $45.55 $42.72 $3.68 1.9% 7.6%
CA $27.87 $29.08 $0.75 7.0% 7.6%
GME $41.70 $45.17 $1.05 10.8% 7.6%
NUS $44.56 $47.23 $1.05 8.3% 7.6%
Totals 8.7% 7.6%
12/31/14 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
CA $30.83 $29.08 $0.50 -4.0% 1.1%
CSCO $28.36 $28.15 $0.61 1.4% 1.1%
RGR $34.81 $63.14 $0.49 82.8% 1.1%
GME $34.21 $45.17 $0.72 34.1% 1.1%
IQNT $19.87 $17.73 $0.30 -9.3% 1.1%
Totals 21.0% 1.1%
3/31/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
HRB $31.99 $35.38 $0.20 11.2% -0.1%
GME $37.69 $45.17 $0.36 20.8% -0.1%
KING $15.85 $15.36 $0.00 -3.1% -0.1%
NSU $3.43 $2.98 $0.04 -12.0% -0.1%
PPC $22.65 $22.56 $0.00 -0.4% -0.1%
Totals 3.3% -0.1%
7/1/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
BKE $46.45 $42.72 $0.23 -7.5% -0.1%
CA $29.34 $29.08 $0.00 -0.9% -0.1%
MSFT $44.42 $46.74 $0.00 5.2% -0.1%
QCOM $62.95 $63.02 $0.00 0.1% -0.1%
VIAB $64.75 $45.47 $0.00 -29.8% -0.1%
Totals -6.6% -0.1%
You can see the July portfolio is off to a rocky start.  My July rejects are up 50 basis points, so I certainly was not helped by Mr Random.

Date Differential Value R3K Value
10/1/2014 0.00%      100,000         100,000
11/1/2014 1.63%      102,288         100,658
12/1/2014 0.30%      101,375         101,075
1/1/2015 -0.33%      100,664         100,995
2/1/2015 1.67%      101,281           99,611
3/1/2015 3.62%      106,073         102,454
4/1/2015 5.09%      106,781         101,695
5/1/2015 5.78%      107,859         102,077
6/1/2015 5.08%      108,213         103,134
7/1/2015 4.82%      106,423         101,604
8/1/2015 3.71%      107,112         103,404
Current 4.48%      106,572         102,089

Ok. Enough chit chat. Back to my vacation. Have a great week everyone.

1 comment:

J Nelson said...

Marshall, you are a great stock picker and you should not be discouraged. Your big mistake was continuing to hold GNW when it was clear that Management could not be trusted based on their public statements v their previous earning report. They clearly knew that the LT care division was way under reserved and had no inclination to let shareholders know. There are alot of things outside management's control but forthright and honest disclosures of challenges and potential impacts to earnings are a minimum requirement and when GNW management clearly showed themselves to self interested at the expense of their shareholders you really should have ditched GNW then.

Nonetheless, I think you are proving your Magic formula hypothesis and I for one am learning alot from your choices and decisions. It's a shitty year but I really think you are far ahead of most investors. Rah! Rah!