Sunday, August 23, 2015

Weekend Update From Pittsburgh

Weekend Update

In Pittsburgh today dropping so off at CMU. Freshman orientation for my son. Seems like a great campus and Pittsburgh is a cool city.  Been super busy, so posting the weekend update is late and will be quick and dirty.

Absolute disaster week.  I do not even want to think of how many paper dollars I lost.My portfolio was down a staggering 8% and is now down 12% from it's high in mid July. 12% in a month, ouch!  Not sure the drop is over yet.

I am now down 2.7% for the year, which is exactly par with the Russell 3000.  My MFI index is now down 6.4%!  Interestingly, both my MFI Select and MFI Formula portfolios are still in the black, so it is mostly my discretionary (again) picks doing the damage.  I am that guy running through the dynamite factory with a lit match.

MFI Select

11/15/2014 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
FLR $64.80 $44.97 $0.63 -29.6% -1.4%
IPCM $38.45 $79.50 $0.00 106.8% -1.4%
VIAB $72.29 $39.87 $1.06 -43.4% -1.4%
NHTC $12.19 $24.95 $0.06 105.2% -1.4%
AWRE $4.40 $3.14 $0.00 -28.6% -1.4%
Totals 22.1% -1.4%
2/1/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
VEC $28.00 $25.88 $0.00 -7.6% 0.0%
QCOM $62.73 $57.61 $0.90 -6.7% 0.0%
VIAB $63.91 $39.87 $0.73 -36.5% 0.0%
UIS $22.03 $13.07 $0.00 -40.7% 0.0%
NHTC $12.44 $24.95 $0.05 101.0% 0.0%
Totals 1.9% 0.0%
5/6/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
CBI $50.38 $42.91 $0.07 -14.7% -5.0%
PSDV $4.12 $3.99 $0.00 -3.3% -5.0%
TSRA $38.94 $32.96 $0.20 -14.9% -5.0%
KORS $62.24 $40.08 $0.00 -35.6% -5.0%
DEPO $23.50 $28.75 $0.00 22.3% -5.0%
Totals -9.2% -5.0%
8/17/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
VDSI $18.66 $17.65 $0.00 -5.4% -5.5%
SALE $9.34 $8.17 $0.00 -12.5% -5.5%
CSCO $28.95 $26.47 $0.00 -8.6% -5.5%
TGNA $25.30 $23.94 $0.00 -5.4% -5.5%
HSII $20.14 $20.17 $0.00 0.1% -5.5%
Totals -6.3% -5.5%

Category/Tranche August November February May Total
Initial Investment        25,000          25,000       25,000        25,000      100,000
Current Tranche -6.3% 22.1% 1.9% -9.2% 2.1%
Previous Tranche 11.2% 14.2% 8.5% 18.3% 16.3%
Tranche -2 41.4% 43.7% 78.3% 33.0% 49.1%
Tranche -3 14.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
MFI Overall Gain 68.0% 100.4% 97.0% 42.8% 77.0%
Current Balance        41,990          50,088       49,250        35,705      177,033
R3K Current Tranche -5.5% -1.4% 0.0% -5.0% -3.0%
R3K Overall Gain 49.9% 54.3% 36.7% 27.5% 42.1%
R3K Balance        37,469          38,577       34,187        31,878      142,111
Annualized IRR 18.7% 28.5% 30.4% 16.8% 23.9%


You can see my two most recent tranches are struggling.  Down 9% and 6.5%.

Date Differential MFI Value R3K Value
12/1/2012 -2.20%          99,765            101,965
1/1/2013 -1.78%        102,798            104,575
2/1/2013 -2.26%        102,594            104,856
3/1/2013 -2.23%        102,881            105,114
4/1/2013 -0.43%        106,804            107,234
5/1/2013 2.00%        110,423            108,423
6/1/2013 4.75%        115,831            111,085
7/1/2013 4.29%        114,888            110,597
8/1/2013 6.91%        124,799            117,889
9/1/2013 10.46%        124,536            114,079
10/1/2013 19.67%        138,655            118,990
11/1/2013 19.75%        143,514            123,764
12/1/2013 23.70%        150,105            126,405
1/1/2014 26.63%        157,138            130,503
2/1/2014 24.70%        150,619            125,918
3/1/2014 25.66%        158,116            132,458
4/1/2014 30.38%        162,991            132,616
5/1/2014 29.65%        162,428            132,779
6/1/2014 31.44%        167,001            135,559
7/1/2014 39.23%        177,971            138,740
8/1/2014 31.13%        167,054            135,922
9/1/2014 35.90%        177,792            141,892
10/1/2014 29.38%        168,321            138,944
11/1/2014 26.14%        168,810            142,666
12/1/2014 30.22%        176,420            146,198
1/1/2015 28.17%        174,306            146,140
2/1/2015 20.63%        162,833            142,201
3/1/2015 25.15%        175,476            150,324
4/1/2015 29.95%        178,565            148,612
5/1/2015 37.31%        186,655            149,348
6/1/2015 51.53%        202,897            151,371
7/1/2015 62.69%        211,437            148,743
8/1/2015 40.75%        192,117            151,369
Current 34.92%        177,033            142,111


Pretty stunning that since July, my lead has gone from 62.7% to 34.5%. Whoa!

MFI Formula

10/1/2014 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
BAH $23.52 $26.88 $0.37 15.8% 2.3%
BKE $45.55 $41.60 $3.68 -0.6% 2.3%
CA $27.87 $27.33 $0.75 0.7% 2.3%
GME $41.70 $44.83 $1.05 10.0% 2.3%
NUS $44.56 $45.22 $1.05 3.8% 2.3%
Totals 6.0% 2.3%
12/31/14 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
CA $30.83 $27.33 $0.50 -9.7% -3.8%
CSCO $28.36 $26.47 $0.61 -4.5% -3.8%
RGR $34.81 $61.00 $0.85 77.7% -3.8%
GME $34.21 $44.83 $0.72 33.2% -3.8%
IQNT $19.87 $19.28 $0.45 -0.7% -3.8%
Totals 19.2% -3.8%
3/31/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
HRB $31.99 $33.07 $0.20 4.0% -5.0%
GME $37.69 $44.83 $0.36 19.9% -5.0%
KING $15.85 $13.00 $0.00 -18.0% -5.0%
NSU $3.43 $2.77 $0.04 -18.1% -5.0%
PPC $22.65 $21.90 $0.00 -3.3% -5.0%
Totals -3.1% -5.0%
7/1/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
BKE $46.45 $41.60 $0.23 -9.9% -5.0%
CA $29.34 $27.33 $0.00 -6.9% -5.0%
MSFT $44.42 $43.07 $0.31 -2.3% -5.0%
QCOM $62.95 $57.61 $0.00 -8.5% -5.0%
VIAB $64.75 $39.87 $0.00 -38.4% -5.0%
Totals -13.2% -5.0%

Again, my 7/1 tranche is down 13% in 7 weeks. It certainly isn't just me, MFI is struggling (at least the 100m+ screen).


Date Differential Value R3K Value
10/1/2014 0.00%        100,000            100,000
11/1/2014 1.63%        102,288            100,658
12/1/2014 0.30%        101,375            101,075
1/1/2015 -0.33%        100,664            100,995
2/1/2015 1.67%        101,281              99,611
3/1/2015 3.62%        106,073            102,454
4/1/2015 5.09%        106,781            101,695
5/1/2015 5.78%        107,859            102,077
6/1/2015 5.08%        108,213            103,134
7/1/2015 4.82%        106,423            101,604
8/1/2015 3.71%        107,112            103,404
Current 5.10%        102,177              97,082

Not quite as distressing, while I am moving back to break even (100k), the R3K is also struggling.


Well, I'd love to continue typing depressing stuff, but need to have last meal in 3 months with son.

Have a better week everyone. Do not despair.


1 comment:

Corpraider said...

It's not just you for sure. QVAL has been smoked as have the Gotham funds.