Saturday, February 28, 2015

Weekend Update - EOF

End Of February Weekend Update

What a great month.  If you page back to my post at the end of January, you would see I was down 3.5% that month.  I am now up for the year 6.2%. So a little math would tell you I added about 9% in the month.

RGR was up 26%, NUS was up 32% and KING made me 23%.   Oh, don't forget CBI, up a snappy 34%.  Then EYES was the best of them all, up 84%. Sadly, I missed some of that upside selling on Thursday.

MFI Select

It was a great rebound month for this portfolio as well. The 20 stocks were up 7.6%, headlined by the 5 new stocks as of February 1st, up a composite 9.3%.

5/6/2014 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
AVG $19.57 $22.57 $0.00 15.3% 13.4%
CA $29.54 $32.52 $1.00 13.5% 13.4%
CSCO $22.79 $29.51 $0.57 32.0% 13.4%
NSR $25.82 $26.52 $0.00 2.7% 13.4%
RCII $28.78 $27.60 $0.70 -1.7% 13.4%
Totals 12.4% 13.4%
8/15/2014 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
CSCO $24.40 $29.51 $0.38 22.5% 8.6%
AGX $36.71 $32.43 $0.70 -9.8% 8.6%
ITRN $21.32 $23.04 $0.38 9.8% 8.6%
BRCD $9.34 $12.39 $0.07 33.5% 8.6%
CBI $58.25 $46.16 $0.14 -20.5% 8.6%
Totals 7.1% 8.6%
11/15/2014 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
FLR $64.80 $58.00 $0.42 -9.8% 4.2%
IPCM $38.45 $43.24 $0.00 12.5% 4.2%
VIAB $72.29 $69.94 $0.33 -2.8% 4.2%
NHTC $12.19 $13.05 $0.01 7.1% 4.2%
AWRE $4.40 $4.52 $0.00 2.7% 4.2%
Totals 1.9% 4.2%
2/1/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
VEC $28.00 $31.81 $0.00 13.6% 5.6%
QCOM $62.73 $72.51 $0.00 15.6% 5.6%
VIAB $63.91 $69.94 $0.00 9.4% 5.6%
UIS $22.03 $22.64 $0.00 2.8% 5.6%
NHTC $12.44 $13.05 $0.00 4.9% 5.6%
Totals 9.3% 5.6%
Category/Tranche August November February May Total
Initial Investment      25,000       25,000     25,000      25,000    100,000
Current Tranche 7.1% 1.9% 9.3% 12.4% 7.4%
Previous Tranche 41.4% 14.2% 8.5% 33.0% 21.8%
Tranche -2 14.1% 43.7% 78.3%             -   34.0%
MFI Overall Gain 72.8% 67.3% 111.2% 49.5% 75.2%
Current Balance      43,193       41,831     52,805      37,368    175,198
R3K Current Tranche 8.6% 4.2% 5.6% 13.4% 8.0%
R3K Overall Gain 58.4% 63.0% 44.5% 34.8% 50.2%
R3K Balance      39,605       40,749     36,121      33,708    150,182
Annualized IRR 24.0% 25.2% 43.4% 24.8% 27.6%


So my MFI has regained some luster. My 20 open stocks are in almost a dead heat with the benchmark - I was trailing substantially a few weeks ago.  Of course in aggregate, going back to August 2012, I have increased my worth from $100k to 175k, a 25 point cushion over the benchmark.

Date Differential Value
12/1/2012 -2.20%       99,765
1/1/2013 -1.78%      102,798
2/1/2013 -2.26%      102,594
3/1/2013 -2.23%      102,881
4/1/2013 -0.43%      106,804
5/1/2013 2.00%      110,423
6/1/2013 4.75%      115,831
7/1/2013 4.29%      114,888
8/1/2013 6.91%      124,799
9/1/2013 10.46%      124,536
10/1/2013 19.67%      138,655
11/1/2013 19.75%      143,514
12/1/2013 23.70%      150,105
1/1/2014 26.63%      157,138
2/1/2014 24.70%      150,619
3/1/2014 25.66%      158,116
4/1/2014 30.38%      162,991
5/1/2014 29.65%      162,428
6/1/2014 31.44%      167,001
7/1/2014 39.23%      177,971
8/1/2014 31.13%      167,054
9/1/2014 35.90%      177,792
10/1/2014 29.38%      168,321
11/1/2014 26.14%      168,810
12/1/2014 30.22%      176,420
1/1/2015 28.17%      174,306
2/1/2015 20.63%      162,833
3/1/2015 25.02%      175,198


MFI Formula

The formula continues it's strong start.

10/1/2014 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
BAH $23.52 $29.76 $0.24 27.5% 8.1%
BKE $45.55 $50.30 $3.22 17.5% 8.1%
CA $27.87 $32.52 $0.50 18.5% 8.1%
GME $41.70 $36.97 $0.33 -10.6% 8.1%
NUS $44.56 $54.18 $0.70 23.1% 8.1%
Totals 15.2% 8.1%
12/31/14 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
CA $30.83 $32.52 $0.25 6.3% 1.6%
CSCO $28.36 $29.51 $0.19 4.7% 1.6%
RGR $34.81 $51.96 $0.00 49.2% 1.6%
GME $34.21 $36.97 $0.00 8.1% 1.6%
IQNT $19.87 $14.75 $0.15 -25.0% 1.6%
Totals 8.7% 1.6%


Both tranches have about a 7 point cushion. That is very impressive.  For the record, it is not luck.  The October rejects are up even more (about 17%) and the December rejects are up 8.1%. The formula is working.

UCO Trade

I am trying a relatively small UCO trade - etf associated with the price of oil. This will use covered calls and will be a winner as long as the price of oil does not crater.

Type Date Shares Purchase Current Cost Value Gain/Loss X Date
Stock 2/19/2015 3,000 $8.69 $8.14    26,070      24,420             (1,650)
Sold Call 2/19/2015 3,000 $0.20            600                   600 2/27/2015
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
 Overall              (1,050)

The shares bought are illustrative, but everything else is real.  My first calls expired yesterday. I will sell some new ones next week.

Income

I am thinking more and more about income as I get closer to retirement.  While I have made strides over the past 5 years, I do need to continue the push.  After I fund my final two MFI Formula tranches here in 2015, the strong push for new money will be income generating securities.  Not sexy, but the idea of a regular month dividend flow will make me feel more secure.


1 comment:

John Carney said...

Marsh,

I agree that this is not luck. My #1 is up 15.6% and #2 is up 6.3% but we only share 5 of these stocks meaning another 8 other stock are beating the index. I am up 10.9% vs the master up 11.9%.