A snowy Saturday morning here in New England. That is actually ok. I have some jazz playing on Pandora, I have a fresh cup of coffee and started a fire (in the fireplace). Sitting in family room watching the snow fall in the woods.
My investing challenges continue to persist. Just struggling since September last year - all kicked off with the fall of GTAT. I am down exactly 2% this year. That is versus the bench mark being down 29 basis. points. It seems like all my earnings news this season have been bad. I'd welcome some good news.
Headlines
- SanDisk Drops After Sales Projection Falls Short of Estimates
- KLA-Tencor Drops 6%: FYQ2 Beats, Q3 View Misses
- CA Technologies Falls As Q3 Shows Problems
SNDK and KLAC are both part of my Feb 1st MFI Select portfolio. It would have been nice if this bad news could have waited two weeks. Oh well, it is a marathon, not a sprint.
I will be thinking hard about my five new stocks for this portfolio. I will be selling out my positions next Friday and the following Monday. I will likely buy the new positions on (what should be a national holiday) post-Super Bowl Monday.
MFI Select
While not terrible, this portfolio is steady struggling. Down 3.8% on the year and now 3 of the 4 tranches are losing to the benchmark.
| 2/1/14 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| $17.13 | $20.65 | $0.20 | 21.7% | 15.7% | |
| $61.47 | $65.24 | $18.40 | 36.1% | 15.7% | |
| RPXC | $16.22 | $12.77 | $0.00 | -21.3% | 15.7% |
| $69.55 | $79.68 | $0.83 | 15.8% | 15.7% | |
| WNR | $39.11 | $35.69 | $3.04 | -1.0% | 15.7% |
| Totals | 10.3% | 15.7% | |||
| Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain | |
| AVG | $19.57 | $19.97 | $0.00 | 2.0% | 10.1% |
| CA | $29.54 | $31.01 | $0.75 | 7.5% | 10.1% |
| $22.79 | $28.21 | $0.57 | 26.3% | 10.1% | |
| NSR | $25.82 | $27.92 | $0.00 | 8.2% | 10.1% |
| $28.78 | $34.49 | $0.70 | 22.3% | 10.1% | |
| Totals | 13.3% | 10.1% | |||
| Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain | |
| $24.40 | $28.21 | $0.38 | 17.2% | 5.4% | |
| AGX | $36.71 | $31.65 | $0.70 | -11.9% | 5.4% |
| ITRN | $21.32 | $21.03 | $0.38 | 0.4% | 5.4% |
| $9.34 | $11.58 | $0.04 | 24.4% | 5.4% | |
| $58.25 | $38.79 | $0.14 | -33.2% | 5.4% | |
| Totals | -0.6% | 5.4% | |||
| Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain | |
| $64.80 | $54.31 | $0.21 | -15.9% | 1.1% | |
| IPCM | $38.45 | $41.77 | $0.00 | 8.6% | 1.1% |
| VIAB | $72.29 | $67.80 | $0.33 | -5.8% | 1.1% |
| NHTC | $12.19 | $12.75 | $0.01 | 4.7% | 1.1% |
| $4.40 | $4.59 | $0.00 | 4.3% | 1.1% | |
| Totals | -0.8% | 1.1% | |||
| Category/Tranche | August | November | February | May | Total |
| Initial Investment | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 100,000 |
| Current Tranche | -0.6% | -0.8% | 10.3% | 13.3% | 5.0% |
| Previous Tranche | 41.4% | 14.2% | 78.3% | 33.0% | 39.4% |
| Tranche -2 | 14.1% | 43.7% | - | - | 14.5% |
| MFI Overall Gain | 60.3% | 62.8% | 96.5% | 50.6% | 67.6% |
| Current Balance | 40,081 | 40,709 | 49,135 | 37,662 | 167,587 |
| R3K Current Tranche | 5.4% | 1.1% | 15.7% | 10.1% | 8.1% |
| R3K Overall Gain | 53.7% | 58.2% | 40.1% | 30.9% | 45.7% |
| R3K Balance | 38,436 | 39,542 | 35,032 | 32,717 | 145,726 |
| Annualized IRR | 21.3% | 24.9% | 40.7% | 26.9% | 27.9% |
The Construction stocks are really hurting me (FLR, AGX & CBI). I am trying to decide whether I have the courage to buy one more this February.
| Date | Differential | Value |
| -2.20% | 99,765 | |
| -1.78% | 102,798 | |
| -2.26% | 102,594 | |
| -2.23% | 102,881 | |
| -0.43% | 106,804 | |
| 2.00% | 110,423 | |
| 4.75% | 115,831 | |
| 4.29% | 114,888 | |
| 6.91% | 124,799 | |
| 10.46% | 124,536 | |
| 19.67% | 138,655 | |
| 19.75% | 143,514 | |
| 23.70% | 150,105 | |
| 26.63% | 157,138 | |
| 24.70% | 150,619 | |
| 25.66% | 158,116 | |
| 30.38% | 162,991 | |
| 29.65% | 162,428 | |
| 31.44% | 167,001 | |
| 39.23% | 177,971 | |
| 31.13% | 167,054 | |
| 35.90% | 177,792 | |
| 29.38% | 168,321 | |
| 26.14% | 168,810 | |
| 30.22% | 176,420 | |
| 28.17% | 174,306 | |
| Current | 21.86% | 167,587 |
Wow, that is a depressing table. On 7/1/14 I was 39 percentage points ahead of benchmark. That lead has dwindled to 21.86%.
MFI Formula
As predicted, just using the formula is working better, though it is still early days and we haven't seen any earnings reports from many of these names.
| 10/1/2014 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BAH | $23.52 | $29.05 | $0.11 | 24.0% | 4.9% |
| $45.55 | $50.39 | $3.22 | 17.7% | 4.9% | |
| CA | $27.87 | $31.01 | $0.25 | 12.1% | 4.9% |
| $41.70 | $37.40 | $0.33 | -9.5% | 4.9% | |
| $44.56 | $42.52 | $0.35 | -3.8% | 4.9% | |
| Totals | 8.1% | 4.9% | |||
| 12/31/14 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CA | $30.83 | $31.01 | $0.00 | 0.6% | -1.4% |
| $28.36 | $28.21 | $0.19 | 0.1% | -1.4% | |
| $34.81 | $38.71 | $0.00 | 11.2% | -1.4% | |
| $34.21 | $37.40 | $0.00 | 9.3% | -1.4% | |
| IQNT | $19.87 | $17.92 | $0.00 | -9.8% | -1.4% |
| Totals | 2.3% | -1.4% |
It is funny, these stocks don't "feel" like they are out-performing... but they are. I know there was questioning whether I should let the formula buy the same stock in multiple tranches. That has worked with GME thus far.
Ok, enough crying. I am going to create a top 200 list to think about next week's buys.
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