Well, we are but 18 days into the new year. But many believe in the January Effect, as goes January goes the rest of the year. Not sure I believe, but it is fun to make lists. First, here is a look at the 50 stocks in my MFI Index in 2015:
For the 50 stocks, pretty difficult to get excited about the -1.7% return. As I noted yesterday (Weekend Update - Back Home Again), my MFI Select is down about 4% so far in 2015 and my MFI Formula is up 1.6% (though it should be recognized that this portfolio is still 50% cash, so the stock piece is actually up 3.2%).
You can see that EBIX and DEPO are the two big winners so far. EBIX is a classic MFI example. Many would not have bought it as they were being audited by the IRS. Well, it was successfully resolved and the stock has popped 30%.
Currently, the open tracking portfolios are up an average of 3.9%, versus R3K of 4.4%. Those were 5.6% and 6.0% at year end. So both down by about the same amount.
Barron's This Week
I just completed reading the 2015 edition (part 1) of the Barron's round table. This is always fascinating reading as they take a group of very smart investors and get their views on upcoming year in quasi debate format. They do not always agree. And they are sometimes pretty funny.
My takeaways included:
- 2015 will be a tough year. Market is either fully priced or over priced. One guy used the acronym TINA, which at first I didn't get. It stood for There Is No Alternative (to stocks in this instance). So while he wasn't crazy about stocks, he was less crazy about other alternatives.
- Some parts of the world are really in trouble - Europe and Japan at the top of the list. The view on China was much lower than I have seen elsewhere. More like 4% growth.
- They were asked what they might be over looking, considering no one predicted the oil drop last year. They had some off-the-wall ideas, though they did comment that if you knew what was missing, that you would consider it. These included: (1) increase war activity, (2) Obama perhaps not finishing term, (3) the Euro being dropped by some countries, (4) ethanol usage in gasoline being dropped, (5) ISIS taking leadership in Middle East and (6) a big spike in interest rates.
- Lower oil prices are here for extended period (unless some sort of war or crisis happens in Middle East). This could have repercussions on housing prices in CO or TX, could hurt some financial institutions, will put more $ in hands of consumers (will they spend or will they save?) and very positive for emerging markets.
Barron's did have a feature article regard PSX, stating it was way under-valued. I'd suggest you could say the same for my WNR holding. I may try to find a way to continue to hold WNR after my 2/1/14 MFI tranche hits anniversary date.
Enough for now. Hope everyone enjoys championship Sunday. Also my Hoosiers play the Illini at noon.