Back home again. It was a long Friday - 37 hours long. Got back home at 1:30 am Saturday morning, which would have been 2:30 pm in Singapore. Good to be back, actually slept surprisingly well last night.
It appears the markets had a very good Friday. But for my MFI Select Portfolio, it was a very bad week. It started poorly as SNDK announced a material revenue shortfall (SanDisk (SNDK) Cuts Q4 Revenue Outlook, Shares Plummet).
MFI Select
Also had a major drop with WNR as anything associated with the oil space continues to be pressured. VIAB also was downgraded and dropped. So all-in-all, my MFI Select portfolio was down 3%, while the overall benchmarks were pretty flat. It sucks as the poor week took my February 1st portfolio (which just has ten trading days left) below the benchmark, so it will likely end up my second straight loser.
| 2/1/14 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| $17.13 | $20.25 | $0.20 | 19.4% | 13.9% | |
| $61.47 | $67.84 | $18.40 | 40.3% | 13.9% | |
| RPXC | $16.22 | $12.43 | $0.00 | -23.4% | 13.9% |
| $69.55 | $78.93 | $0.83 | 14.7% | 13.9% | |
| WNR | $39.11 | $32.87 | $3.04 | -8.2% | 13.9% |
| Totals | 8.6% | 13.9% | |||
| Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain | |
| AVG | $19.57 | $19.63 | $0.00 | 0.3% | 8.3% |
| CA | $29.54 | $31.36 | $0.75 | 8.7% | 8.3% |
| $22.79 | $27.68 | $0.57 | 24.0% | 8.3% | |
| NSR | $25.82 | $27.68 | $0.00 | 7.2% | 8.3% |
| $28.78 | $33.83 | $0.70 | 20.0% | 8.3% | |
| Totals | 12.0% | 8.3% | |||
| Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain | |
| $24.40 | $27.68 | $0.38 | 15.0% | 3.7% | |
| AGX | $36.71 | $31.99 | $0.70 | -11.0% | 3.7% |
| ITRN | $21.32 | $21.12 | $0.38 | 0.8% | 3.7% |
| $9.34 | $11.76 | $0.04 | 26.4% | 3.7% | |
| $58.25 | $40.17 | $0.14 | -30.8% | 3.7% | |
| Totals | 0.1% | 3.7% | |||
| Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain | |
| $64.80 | $54.03 | $0.21 | -16.3% | -0.6% | |
| IPCM | $38.45 | $42.94 | $0.00 | 11.7% | -0.6% |
| VIAB | $72.29 | $68.07 | $0.33 | -5.4% | -0.6% |
| NHTC | $12.19 | $12.10 | $0.01 | -0.7% | -0.6% |
| $4.40 | $4.47 | $0.00 | 1.6% | -0.6% | |
| Totals | -1.8% | -0.6% | |||
| Category/Tranche | August | November | February | May | Total |
| Initial Investment | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 100,000 |
| Current Tranche | 0.1% | -1.8% | 8.6% | 12.0% | 4.2% |
| Previous Tranche | 41.4% | 14.2% | 78.3% | 33.0% | 39.4% |
| Tranche -2 | 14.1% | 43.7% | - | - | 14.5% |
| MFI Overall Gain | 61.4% | 61.2% | 93.5% | 49.0% | 66.3% |
| Current Balance | 40,361 | 40,293 | 48,376 | 37,256 | 166,287 |
| R3K Current Tranche | 3.7% | -0.6% | 13.9% | 8.3% | 6.3% |
| R3K Overall Gain | 51.3% | 55.6% | 37.9% | 28.8% | 43.4% |
| R3K Balance | 37,817 | 38,903 | 34,472 | 32,192 | 143,384 |
| Annualized IRR | 21.8% | 24.5% | 40.0% | 26.4% | 27.7% |
RPXC has also continued it's slow fade. A bit disappointing. You can see how my relative lead over R3K continues to erode:
| Date | Differential | Value |
| -2.20% | 99,765 | |
| -1.78% | 102,798 | |
| -2.26% | 102,594 | |
| -2.23% | 102,881 | |
| -0.43% | 106,804 | |
| 2.00% | 110,423 | |
| 4.75% | 115,831 | |
| 4.29% | 114,888 | |
| 6.91% | 124,799 | |
| 10.46% | 124,536 | |
| 19.67% | 138,655 | |
| 19.75% | 143,514 | |
| 23.70% | 150,105 | |
| 26.63% | 157,138 | |
| 24.70% | 150,619 | |
| 25.66% | 158,116 | |
| 30.38% | 162,991 | |
| 29.65% | 162,428 | |
| 31.44% | 167,001 | |
| 39.23% | 177,971 | |
| 31.13% | 167,054 | |
| 35.90% | 177,792 | |
| 29.38% | 168,321 | |
| 26.14% | 168,810 | |
| 30.22% | 176,420 | |
| 28.17% | 174,306 | |
| Current | 22.90% | 166,287 |
That is a poor January, down from $174K to 166K, off 4.7%.
MFI Formula
While the Select portfolio is under duress, my Formula portfolio is really, really doing well. I guess that was the theory, that a simple formula beats a formula with judgment added as "experts" do not necessarily add value. Of course, my Formula approach is still in early days and frankly, the random approach helped me as the stocks I didn't pick are not doing so well.
| 10/1/2014 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BAH | $23.52 | $28.94 | $0.11 | 23.5% | 3.2% |
| $45.55 | $50.33 | $3.22 | 17.6% | 3.2% | |
| CA | $27.87 | $31.36 | $0.25 | 13.4% | 3.2% |
| $41.70 | $36.35 | $0.33 | -12.0% | 3.2% | |
| $44.56 | $43.04 | $0.35 | -2.6% | 3.2% | |
| Totals | 8.0% | 3.2% | |||
| 12/31/14 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CA | $30.83 | $31.36 | $0.00 | 1.7% | -3.0% |
| $28.36 | $27.68 | $0.19 | -1.7% | -3.0% | |
| $34.81 | $37.47 | $0.00 | 7.6% | -3.0% | |
| $34.21 | $36.35 | $0.00 | 6.3% | -3.0% | |
| IQNT | $19.87 | $18.41 | $0.00 | -7.3% | -3.0% |
| Totals | 1.3% | -3.0% |
| Date | Differential | Value |
| 0.00% | 1,000,000 | |
| 1.63% | 1,022,880 | |
| 0.30% | 1,013,750 | |
| -0.33% | 1,006,644 | |
| Current | 2.27% | 1,022,905 |
So you can see I am up about 1.6% in January. Of course, the stocks Mr Random didn't pick for me at end of September are actually down slightly (versus my tranche being up 8%) and the end of December non picks are down 6.7%. So it may be a case (thus far) of better lucky than good.
All portfolios combined, I am down 1.3% on the year, a bit better than broader markets, though it doesn't feel like out-performance. TNH has really helped. Though one stock in free fall is BAC-WTA. It is down 17% this year. Perhaps there is fear of loan losses with energy prices crashing. I have always felt these warrants were a good value, so I am really, really tempted to add to this position next week.
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