January 31st, 2014 Tranche

Another Tranche Nears Anniversary

My MFI Select tranche from a year ago is about to expire.  It was a great tranche until we headed into January ==> holding for a year doesn't always work.

Just at the end of 2014, it was up 19%, versus 16% for R3K.  Now it is just a smidgen over 10% versus the benchmark 15.7%. Drats!

I went back and looked at my "rejects" from a year ago. These were the 15 stocks I did not pick, but considered.  they were better, up 14.4%, but still lost to the index.  They do illustrate how much variability you can get on these names.  The worst one was LQDT, down 68%. The best was BAH, up 73%.  Big difference in whether you excluded one or the other.  Of course the savvy readers will note that BAH is larger market cap and pays a dividend, two criteria I have identified as "helping", though nothing is guaranteed, as COH (which was considered) fell 18%.  Here is a table of the 15 wannabes.

Stock	Start	Current	Dividends	Gain
AVG	16.18	19.97	-	23.4%
NSR	34.74	27.92	-	-19.6%
CSCO	21.85	28.21	0.76	32.6%
GSOL	6.71	6.13	-	-8.6%
LQDT	23.56	7.49	-	-68.2%
DHX	7.00	9.96		42.3%
COH	47.64	37.62	1.35	-18.2%
EGL	38.54	42.69	-	10.8%
DGX	52.13	70.89	1.32	38.5%
BAH	18.19	29.05	2.43	73.1%
PFMT	8.56	5.90	-	-31.1%
USNA	59.93	98.84	-	64.9%
LFVN	1.23	1.22	-	-0.5%
GPS	37.83	42.20	0.88	13.9%
AAPL	70.36	112.98	1.84	63.2%
Total				14.4%

AAPL would have been a great pick!  Here are the 5 expiring stocks:

2/1/14 Stocks	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
ATVI	$17.13	$20.65	$0.20	21.7%	15.7%
KLAC	$61.47	$65.24	$18.40	36.1%	15.7%
RPXC	$16.22	$12.77	$0.00	-21.3%	15.7%
SNDK	$69.55	$79.68	$0.83	15.8%	15.7%
WNR	$39.11	$35.69	$3.04	-1.0%	15.7%
Totals				10.3%	15.7%

For posterity, here are all my closed tranches:

8/15/12 Stocks	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
DLB	$34.43	$33.04	$4.00	7.6%	22.1%
KFY	$13.98	$18.95	$0.00	35.6%	22.1%
MSFT	$30.19	$31.92	$0.92	8.8%	22.1%
NSU	$3.62	$3.33	$0.12	-4.6%	22.1%
UIS	$19.96	$24.52	$0.00	22.8%	22.1%
Totals				14.1%	22.1%
11/15/12 Stocks	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
AAPL	$537.62	$527.28	$8.75	-0.3%	36.7%
ABC	$40.21	$69.23	$0.86	74.3%	36.7%
LPS	$23.89	$34.26	$0.40	45.1%	36.7%
VIAB	$49.12	$80.94	$1.15	67.1%	36.7%
WU	$12.77	$16.40	$0.50	32.3%	36.7%
Totals				43.7%	36.7%
2/1/13 Stocks	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
AAPL	$450.60	$500.66	$8.75	13.1%	21.1%
GA	$6.10	$11.01	$0.65	91.2%	21.1%
STRZA	$16.06	$27.98	$0.00	74.2%	21.1%
CA	$25.07	$32.08	$1.00	32.0%	21.1%
NUS	$41.94	$116.59	$1.20	180.8%	21.1%
Totals				78.3%	21.1%
5/6/2013	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
KLIC	$11.40	$14.44	$0.00	26.7%	18.9%
CYOU	$29.24	$28.02	$0.00	-4.2%	18.9%
RDA	$9.74	$16.79	$0.10	73.5%	18.9%
NVDA	$13.85	$18.43	$0.32	35.4%	18.9%
CF	$183.97	$243.22	$2.80	33.7%	18.9%
Totals				33.0%	18.9%
8/15/2013	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
CF	$187.26	$247.43	$4.50	34.5%	19.4%
FLR	$66.06	$73.03	$0.53	11.4%	19.4%
AGX	$15.60	$36.71	$0.75	140.1%	19.4%
KLIC	$11.29	$14.26	$0.00	26.3%	19.4%
RPXC	$15.92	$15.09	$0.00	-5.2%	19.4%
Totals				41.4%	19.4%
11/15/13 Stocks	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
AVG	$17.22	$19.21	$0.00	11.6%	14.5%
ATVI	$17.71	$20.10	$0.20	14.6%	14.5%
GA	$9.04	$11.90	$0.23	34.2%	14.5%
RPXC	$17.04	$13.91	$0.00	-18.4%	14.5%
SYNA	$48.01	$61.90	$0.00	28.9%	14.5%
Totals				14.2%	14.5%

Looking everything over, here are the stocks I am considering:

1. AGX
2. FLR
3. GORO
4. KING
5. MNDO
6. RPXC
7. TPUB
8. VEC
9. VIAB
10. CBI
11. CJREF
12. ITRN
13. WILN
14. NHTC
15. MTEX

Hopefully I can make five of those pick and out-perform the 10 rejects!