Happy New Year - Resetting The Bar

Resetting The Bar

Happy New Year.  Glad to get 2014 behind me. Not sure if it was my worst relative performance ever, but pretty close.  I ended up down 9.6%, which is frankly dreadful.  I was killed by two largest holdings, GTAT and GNW - both of which were amongst worst stocks of the year.  I also lost more in the commodity/oil crash of the 4th quarter than I should have. Finally, I was in too many speculative IPOs and short term trading positions.

Time to dust myself off and start anew.  Focus on what worked, my MFI Select approach was up 10.3%. A bit behind the broader market, but still not too shabby.  My new MFI Formula approach was up 4% for the fourth quarter, again, trailing a bit but making money.

Move away from what didn't work.  That means no more speculative IPOs. That means no more trades with short time horizons. It means more discipline.  I managed to Step Away From The Batter in December and intend to continue doing so.

MFI vs R3K

Here is my table showing my MFI Index versus the R3K back to 2006. As you can see, it is a literal dead heat:

	Annual		Inception to Date
Year	Russell	MFI	Russell ITD	MFI ITD
2006	11.40%	15.03%	11.40%	15.03%
2007	4.09%	-6.69%	15.96%	7.34%
2008	-37.05%	-37.97%	-27.00%	-33.42%
2009	32.51%	45.18%	-3.27%	-3.34%
2010	18.38%	22.77%	14.50%	18.67%
2011	-0.56%	-10.47%	13.87%	6.25%
2012	16.43%	9.70%	32.57%	16.56%
2013	33.01%	51.70%	76.34%	76.82%
2014	12.26%	12.07%	97.95%	98.15%

2015 MFI Index

Every year I reconstitute my MFI Index.  Here are the nifty 50 for 2015:

Index	Stock	Start
1	ADMS	17.37
2	AFOP	14.51
3	ANIK	40.74
4	APOL	34.11
5	AGX	33.64
6	AVID	14.21
7	AWRE	4.54
8	BCOR	13.85
9	BKE	52.52
10	CA	30.45
11	CSCO	27.82
12	COH	37.56
13	DLX	62.25
14	DEPO	16.11
15	EBIX	16.99
16	FLR	60.63
17	GME	33.80
18	GORO	3.38
19	ONE	4.21
20	IQNT	19.63
21	IDCC	52.90
22	IILG	20.89
23	ITRN	22.04
24	KING	15.36
25	LCI	42.88
26	LFVN	1.30
27	LQDT	8.17
28	MSB	17.28
29	NHTC	11.45
30	NSR	27.80
31	NUS	43.70
32	PDLI	7.71
33	PFMT	6.65
34	PETS	14.37
35	PBI	24.37
36	RPXC	13.78
37	SPOK	17.36
38	STRA	74.28
39	RGR	34.63
40	TTWO	28.03
41	TDC	43.68
42	TZOO	12.62
43	TPUB	22.90
44	UBNT	29.64
45	UIS	29.48
46	USNA	102.59
47	VEC	27.40
48	VIAB	75.25
49	WTW	24.84
50	WILN	2.99
	Total	19,816

December 31st, 2014 Monthly Tracking Portfolio

I have also set up the new monthly tracking portfolio.  Here are the dividend stocks and new stocks in that portfolio:

Dividend

Stock	Initial Price	52 week low	Mkt Cap	Yield
AWRE	4.54	3.46	105	38.5%
BKE	52.52	41.45	2,583	4.0%
CA	30.45	25.25	13,558	3.3%
COH	37.56	32.72	10,434	3.6%
CSCO	27.82	21.27	143,672	2.7%
GME	33.80	31.81	3,698	3.9%
GORO	3.38	2.70	184	3.6%
IQNT	19.63	9.80	642	3.1%
ITRN	22.04	19.53	463	4.4%
KING	15.36	10.68	5,040	3.0%
MSB	17.28	16.06	228	10.2%
NUS	43.70	38.12	2,626	3.2%
PBI	24.37	21.01	4,960	3.1%
PDLI	7.71	7.22	1,287	7.8%
PETS	14.37	12.07	294	4.7%
RGR	34.63	33.60	667	4.7%
SPOK	17.36	12.93	375	2.9%
WILN	2.99	2.86	355	5.5%

New

Stock	Initial Price	52 week low	Mkt Cap	New
TDC	43.68	37.66	6,839	1
MSB	17.28	16.06	228	1
LCI	42.88	29.12	1,552	1

My MFI Select Performance

Here is a table showing how my MFI Select portfolio has performed month by month:

Date	Differential	Value
12/1/2012	-2.20%	99,765
1/1/2013	-1.78%	102,798
2/1/2013	-2.26%	102,594
3/1/2013	-2.23%	102,881
4/1/2013	-0.43%	106,804
5/1/2013	2.00%	110,423
6/1/2013	4.75%	115,831
7/1/2013	4.29%	114,888
8/1/2013	6.91%	124,799
9/1/2013	10.46%	124,536
10/1/2013	19.67%	138,655
11/1/2013	19.75%	143,514
12/1/2013	23.70%	150,105
1/1/2014	26.63%	157,138
2/1/2014	24.70%	150,619
3/1/2014	25.66%	158,116
4/1/2014	30.38%	162,991
5/1/2014	29.65%	162,428
6/1/2014	31.44%	167,001
7/1/2014	39.23%	177,971
8/1/2014	31.13%	167,054
9/1/2014	35.90%	177,792
10/1/2014	29.38%	168,321
11/1/2014	26.14%	168,810
12/1/2014	30.22%	176,420
1/1/2015	28.17%	174,306
Current	28.17%	174,306

Recall, this assumes I funded my four initial tranches with $25,000 apiece, or $100,000 in total (starting 8/15/12).  So I am up 74% which is beating the benchmark by 28.17 percentage points. 

Enough blathering for now. Happy New Year everyone.