Thursday, January 01, 2015

Happy New Year - Resetting The Bar

Resetting The Bar

Happy New Year.  Glad to get 2014 behind me. Not sure if it was my worst relative performance ever, but pretty close.  I ended up down 9.6%, which is frankly dreadful.  I was killed by two largest holdings, GTAT and GNW - both of which were amongst worst stocks of the year.  I also lost more in the commodity/oil crash of the 4th quarter than I should have. Finally, I was in too many speculative IPOs and short term trading positions.

Time to dust myself off and start anew.  Focus on what worked, my MFI Select approach was up 10.3%. A bit behind the broader market, but still not too shabby.  My new MFI Formula approach was up 4% for the fourth quarter, again, trailing a bit but making money.

Move away from what didn't work.  That means no more speculative IPOs. That means no more trades with short time horizons. It means more discipline.  I managed to Step Away From The Batter in December and intend to continue doing so.

MFI vs R3K

Here is my table showing my MFI Index versus the R3K back to 2006. As you can see, it is a literal dead heat:

Annual Inception to Date
Year Russell MFI Russell ITD MFI ITD
2006 11.40% 15.03% 11.40% 15.03%
2007 4.09% -6.69% 15.96% 7.34%
2008 -37.05% -37.97% -27.00% -33.42%
2009 32.51% 45.18% -3.27% -3.34%
2010 18.38% 22.77% 14.50% 18.67%
2011 -0.56% -10.47% 13.87% 6.25%
2012 16.43% 9.70% 32.57% 16.56%
2013 33.01% 51.70% 76.34% 76.82%
2014 12.26% 12.07% 97.95% 98.15%


2015 MFI Index

Every year I reconstitute my MFI Index.  Here are the nifty 50 for 2015:

Index Stock Start
1   ADMS      17.37
2   AFOP      14.51
3   ANIK      40.74
4   APOL      34.11
5   AGX      33.64
6   AVID      14.21
7   AWRE         4.54
8   BCOR      13.85
9   BKE      52.52
10   CA      30.45
11   CSCO      27.82
12   COH      37.56
13   DLX      62.25
14   DEPO      16.11
15   EBIX      16.99
16   FLR      60.63
17   GME      33.80
18   GORO         3.38
19   ONE         4.21
20   IQNT      19.63
21   IDCC      52.90
22   IILG      20.89
23   ITRN      22.04
24   KING      15.36
25   LCI      42.88
26   LFVN         1.30
27   LQDT         8.17
28   MSB      17.28
29   NHTC      11.45
30   NSR      27.80
31   NUS      43.70
32   PDLI         7.71
33   PFMT         6.65
34   PETS      14.37
35   PBI      24.37
36   RPXC      13.78
37   SPOK      17.36
38   STRA      74.28
39   RGR      34.63
40   TTWO      28.03
41   TDC      43.68
42   TZOO      12.62
43   TPUB      22.90
44   UBNT      29.64
45   UIS      29.48
46   USNA    102.59
47   VEC      27.40
48   VIAB      75.25
49   WTW      24.84
50   WILN         2.99
Total    19,816

December 31st, 2014 Monthly Tracking Portfolio

I have also set up the new monthly tracking portfolio.  Here are the dividend stocks and new stocks in that portfolio:

Dividend

Stock  Initial Price   52 week low   Mkt Cap  Yield
AWRE                4.54                 3.46           105 38.5%
BKE              52.52                41.45         2,583 4.0%
CA              30.45                25.25       13,558 3.3%
COH              37.56                32.72       10,434 3.6%
CSCO              27.82                21.27     143,672 2.7%
GME              33.80                31.81         3,698 3.9%
GORO                3.38                 2.70           184 3.6%
IQNT              19.63                 9.80           642 3.1%
ITRN              22.04                19.53           463 4.4%
KING              15.36                10.68         5,040 3.0%
MSB              17.28                16.06           228 10.2%
NUS              43.70                38.12         2,626 3.2%
PBI              24.37                21.01         4,960 3.1%
PDLI                7.71                 7.22         1,287 7.8%
PETS              14.37                12.07           294 4.7%
RGR              34.63                33.60           667 4.7%
SPOK              17.36                12.93           375 2.9%
WILN                2.99                 2.86           355 5.5%
New

Stock Initial Price 52 week low  Mkt Cap  New
TDC 43.68 37.66         6,839 1
MSB 17.28 16.06           228 1
LCI 42.88 29.12         1,552 1
My MFI Select Performance

Here is a table showing how my MFI Select portfolio has performed month by month:

Date Differential Value
12/1/2012 -2.20%       99,765
1/1/2013 -1.78%      102,798
2/1/2013 -2.26%      102,594
3/1/2013 -2.23%      102,881
4/1/2013 -0.43%      106,804
5/1/2013 2.00%      110,423
6/1/2013 4.75%      115,831
7/1/2013 4.29%      114,888
8/1/2013 6.91%      124,799
9/1/2013 10.46%      124,536
10/1/2013 19.67%      138,655
11/1/2013 19.75%      143,514
12/1/2013 23.70%      150,105
1/1/2014 26.63%      157,138
2/1/2014 24.70%      150,619
3/1/2014 25.66%      158,116
4/1/2014 30.38%      162,991
5/1/2014 29.65%      162,428
6/1/2014 31.44%      167,001
7/1/2014 39.23%      177,971
8/1/2014 31.13%      167,054
9/1/2014 35.90%      177,792
10/1/2014 29.38%      168,321
11/1/2014 26.14%      168,810
12/1/2014 30.22%      176,420
1/1/2015 28.17%      174,306
Current 28.17%      174,306

Recall, this assumes I funded my four initial tranches with $25,000 apiece, or $100,000 in total (starting 8/15/12).  So I am up 74% which is beating the benchmark by 28.17 percentage points. 

Enough blathering for now. Happy New Year everyone.

2 comments:

Jim Bowerman said...

are you reinvesting dividends? I also tracked the 50M plus MFI portfolio for 1 year, starting Jan 1, 2013, and my return was more like 14.48%, not 12.07%. ????

Marsh_Gerda said...

Jim, I do not reinvest dividends, they are just held as excess cash. I doubt that is our difference though, that would be pretty modest in a year. My list is top 50 over $100 m and you were top 50 over $50 m. That could easily cause a two point swing.