Weekend Update - January 31st 2015

Weekend Update

Another week is done. Very, very busy for me personally. Not going to let up as am in Philadelphia Monday & Tuesday then NYC Wednesday and Thursday. After February 21st, things should get back to "normal".

My portfolio did not exactly have a stellar January.  Overall I was down 3.5% versus 2.7% for the Russell 3000. It is a longish list of stocks that didn't exactly have a great month:

1. CBI was down 17.8%
2. GNW was down 17.9%
3. BAC-WTA down 15.5%
4. RPXC down 10.4%
5. IQNT down 14.3%
6. KLAC down 12.6%
7. SNDK down 22.5% (!!)
8. TCMCF down 26.5%
9. NADL down 12.3%
10. VIAB down 14.4%
11. FLR down 11.6%
12. IPCM down 12.3%

Wow, I didn't realize the list of double digit losers in a single month was so long!  It is discouraging.  Though I still believe in many of these stocks and will possible add shares in next MFI tranche on Monday.

MFI Select

My MFI select portfolio continued it's struggles as well.  It was a bad month and you can see many of the reasons why above. KLAC, SNDK and RPXC are all part of my February 1st 2014 tranche which just hit one year anniversary and they didn't exactly finish with a flourish.

2/1/14 Stocks	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
ATVI	$17.13	$20.90	$0.20	23.1%	12.9%
KLAC	$61.47	$61.47	$18.40	29.9%	12.9%
RPXC	$16.22	$12.35	$0.00	-23.9%	12.9%
SNDK	$69.55	$75.91	$0.83	10.3%	12.9%
WNR	$39.11	$37.13	$3.04	2.7%	12.9%
Totals				8.5%	12.9%
5/6/2014	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
AVG	$19.57	$19.78	$0.00	1.1%	7.4%
CA	$29.54	$30.30	$0.75	5.1%	7.4%
CSCO	$22.79	$26.37	$0.57	18.2%	7.4%
NSR	$25.82	$26.29	$0.00	1.8%	7.4%
RCII	$28.78	$34.28	$0.70	21.5%	7.4%
Totals				9.6%	7.4%
8/15/2014	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
CSCO	$24.40	$26.37	$0.38	9.6%	2.8%
AGX	$36.71	$30.41	$0.70	-15.3%	2.8%
ITRN	$21.32	$20.75	$0.38	-0.9%	2.8%
BRCD	$9.34	$11.12	$0.04	19.5%	2.8%
CBI	$58.25	$34.51	$0.14	-40.5%	2.8%
Totals				-5.5%	2.8%
11/15/2014	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
FLR	$64.80	$53.59	$0.21	-17.0%	-1.4%
IPCM	$38.45	$40.36	$0.00	5.0%	-1.4%
VIAB	$72.29	$64.42	$0.33	-10.4%	-1.4%
NHTC	$12.19	$12.00	$0.01	-1.5%	-1.4%
AWRE	$4.40	$4.88	$0.00	10.9%	-1.4%
Totals				-2.6%	-1.4%
Category/Tranche	August	November	February	May	Total
Initial Investment	25,000	25,000	25,000	25,000	100,000
Current Tranche	-5.5%	-2.6%	8.5%	9.6%	2.0%
Previous Tranche	41.4%	14.2%	78.3%	33.0%	39.5%
Tranche -2	14.1%	43.7%	-	-	14.5%
MFI Overall Gain	52.4%	59.9%	93.3%	45.7%	62.8%
Current Balance	38,104	39,969	48,330	36,431	162,833
R3K Current Tranche	2.8%	-1.4%	12.9%	7.4%	5.4%
R3K Overall Gain	50.0%	54.3%	36.8%	27.7%	42.2%
R3K Balance	37,504	38,580	34,189	31,927	142,201
Annualized IRR	18.7%	23.6%	39.1%	24.2%	25.7%

Date	Differential	Value
12/1/2012	-2.20%	99,765
1/1/2013	-1.78%	102,798
2/1/2013	-2.26%	102,594
3/1/2013	-2.23%	102,881
4/1/2013	-0.43%	106,804
5/1/2013	2.00%	110,423
6/1/2013	4.75%	115,831
7/1/2013	4.29%	114,888
8/1/2013	6.91%	124,799
9/1/2013	10.46%	124,536
10/1/2013	19.67%	138,655
11/1/2013	19.75%	143,514
12/1/2013	23.70%	150,105
1/1/2014	26.63%	157,138
2/1/2014	24.70%	150,619
3/1/2014	25.66%	158,116
4/1/2014	30.38%	162,991
5/1/2014	29.65%	162,428
6/1/2014	31.44%	167,001
7/1/2014	39.23%	177,971
8/1/2014	31.13%	167,054
9/1/2014	35.90%	177,792
10/1/2014	29.38%	168,321
11/1/2014	26.14%	168,810
12/1/2014	30.22%	176,420
1/1/2015	28.17%	174,306
Current	20.63%	162,833

So lost 8 points on a relative basis versus the R3K and dropped in absolute value (assuming a $100K start in August 2012) from $174,306 to $162,833.  Not a good trend. Looking at the table, that was my worst month.

You can also see the 2/1/14 tranche is now "final". I will actually see the stocks on Monday for purposes of this tracking, I have locked down the prices.  You can see it "lost" 8.5% to 12.9%. The "good" thing about some of recent stocks selling off is I am finding quite a few stocks I am interested in buying for the new tranche.  I may still make a last second change, but here are the five stocks I think I will buy on Monday:

2/1/2015	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
VEC	$27.84	$27.84	$0.00	0.0%	0.0%
QCOM	$62.46	$62.46	$0.00	0.0%	0.0%
MNDO	$3.42	$3.42	$0.00	0.0%	0.0%
UIS	$21.93	$21.93	$0.00	0.0%	0.0%
VIAB	$64.42	$64.42	$0.00	0.0%	0.0%
Totals				0.0%	0.0%

I am still considering RPXC, GORO, FLR, CBI and ITRN as well.

MFI Formula

My two tranches in my MFI Formula portfolio are doing better than my select.  That is what would have been predicted.

10/1/2014 Stocks	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
BAH	$23.52	$29.11	$0.11	24.2%	2.4%
BKE	$45.55	$50.79	$3.22	18.6%	2.4%
CA	$27.87	$30.30	$0.25	9.6%	2.4%
GME	$41.70	$35.25	$0.33	-14.7%	2.4%
NUS	$44.56	$40.98	$0.35	-7.3%	2.4%
Totals				6.1%	2.4%
12/31/14 Stocks	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
CA	$30.83	$30.30	$0.00	-1.7%	-3.8%
CSCO	$28.36	$26.37	$0.19	-6.4%	-3.8%
RGR	$34.81	$40.40	$0.00	16.0%	-3.8%
GME	$34.21	$35.25	$0.00	3.0%	-3.8%
IQNT	$19.87	$16.82	$0.00	-15.3%	-3.8%
Totals				-0.9%	-3.8%

Category/Tranche	October	January	April	July	Total
Initial Investment	249,820	249,939	250,000	250,000	999,759
Current Tranche	6.1%	-0.9%			1.3%
Previous Tranche	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Tranche -2	0.0%	-	-	-	0.0%
MFI Overall Gain	6.1%	-0.9%	0.0%	0.0%	1.3%
Current Balance	265,037	247,770	250,000	250,000	1,012,806
R3K Current Tranche	2.4%	-3.8%	0.0%	0.0%	-0.4%
R3K Overall Gain	2.4%	-3.8%	0.0%	0.0%	-0.4%
R3K Balance	255,705	240,381	250,000	250,000	996,086
Annualized IRR	19.1%	-9.7%	0.0%	0.0%	13.7%

These tranches are always exciting.  Seems to be pretty volatile. We will see how they are faring in a couple years.

Well, I see we have another 8 to 12 inches of snow forecast for Sunday evening. Looks like I need to head out to Philly on Sunday.