Weekend Update - July 26th, 2014

Weekend Update

July is flying by. Portfolio-wise, it probably cannot be over too soon!  As I have mentioned several times, it has kind of been a perfect storm bad month.  GTAT was dinged on rumors they are behind in sapphire production. GNW was dinged on my capital-intensive requirements for mortgage insurers. KLAC and RCII had less than stellar earnings reports and were thus dinged.  Oh well. I do believe that these are short-term issues and the stocks are not "broken".

Here is a listing of current holdings and how they have fared in July:

Index	Stock	7/1/2014	Current	Monthly Change	Share
1	GTAT	19.26	14.91	-22.6%	10.3%
2	GNW	17.65	16.35	-7.4%	6.9%
3	AOD	9.02	8.89	-1.4%	4.8%
4	KLIC	14.50	13.94	-3.9%	4.8%
5	BBEP	22.24	21.79	-2.0%	4.8%
6	ATVI	22.55	22.99	1.9%	3.5%
7	RPXC	18.07	16.03	-11.3%	3.5%
8	CAMT	4.04	3.51	-13.1%	3.4%
9	NTC	12.65	12.51	-1.1%	3.2%
10	RIOM	2.22	2.40	8.1%	3.2%
11	CSQ	12.03	11.93	-0.8%	3.2%
12	FSC	9.91	9.86	-0.5%	3.2%
13	TPVG	16.06	15.58	-3.0%	3.1%
14	GPS	41.66	39.92	-4.2%	3.1%
15	TGONF	10.05	9.95	-1.0%	2.7%
16	AVG	20.22	20.00	-1.1%	2.5%
17	TC	2.85	2.80	-1.8%	2.1%
18	BAC-WTA	7.07	6.85	-3.1%	2.1%
19	TLM	10.58	10.91	3.1%	2.1%
20	SNDK	105.38	93.24	-11.5%	2.0%
21	AGX	37.27	35.72	-4.2%	2.0%
22	NADL	10.67	9.96	-6.7%	2.0%
23	TIME	24.18	24.00	-0.7%	1.8%
24	SYNA	91.88	75.57	-17.8%	1.8%
25	KLAC	73.07	71.60	-2.0%	1.8%
26	TSL	12.58	11.36	-9.7%	1.7%
27	HIG-WT	27.89	26.70	-4.3%	1.7%
28	WNR	38.09	42.64	11.9%	1.7%
29	TUBE	9.40	9.61	2.2%	1.5%
30	CSCO	25.08	25.97	3.5%	1.3%
31	NSR	26.48	29.10	9.9%	1.3%
32	CF	244.09	252.61	3.5%	1.2%
33	CA	29.32	29.53	0.7%	1.1%
34	O	44.86	44.69	-0.4%	1.0%
35	FLR	78.20	76.02	-2.8%	1.0%
36	OIBAX	6.19	6.18	-0.2%	1.0%
37	RCII	28.97	24.13	-16.7%	1.0%
38				-5.9%

Pretty telling. SNDK and SYNA are others down a bunch. A fair question after a bunch of your stocks ahve fallen is should you add?  I do believe some are very worthy of consideration to add to my positions: SYNA, NADL, CAMT, GNW and GTAT all strike me as stocks that have more upside potential than downside.  I will have to consider that next week. NADL especially (as an income stock) as a strong candidate (for me - I already have all the GNW, CAMT and GTAT that I believe I should own).

MFI Portfolio

My MFI is limping through July like everything else.  And it isn't just me. You will see later when I post my tracking portfolio results, that MFI is in a bit of a summer (hope just one season) swoon. Here is month by month figures:

Date	Differential	Value
12/1/2012	-2.20%	99,765
1/1/2013	-1.78%	102,798
2/1/2013	-2.26%	102,594
3/1/2013	-2.23%	102,881
4/1/2013	-0.43%	106,804
5/1/2013	2.00%	110,423
6/1/2013	4.75%	115,831
7/1/2013	4.29%	114,888
8/1/2013	6.91%	124,799
9/1/2013	10.46%	124,536
10/1/2013	19.67%	138,655
11/1/2013	19.75%	143,514
12/1/2013	23.70%	150,105
1/1/2014	26.63%	157,138
2/1/2014	24.70%	150,619
3/1/2014	25.66%	158,116
4/1/2014	30.38%	162,991
5/1/2014	29.65%	162,428
6/1/2014	32.14%	167,001
7/1/2014	40.63%	177,971
Current	35.60%	173,446

Wow, when you put in black and white (technically blue and white) like that. I have given back 5 points of my lead over R3K (40.63% to 35.60%). And talks of my MFI in total being a double (from $100,000 to 200,000) have been back-burnered.

8/15/2013	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
CF	$187.26	$252.61	$3.00	36.5%	20.4%
FLR	$66.06	$76.02	$0.53	15.9%	20.4%
AGX	$15.60	$35.72	$0.75	133.8%	20.4%
KLIC	$11.29	$13.94	$0.00	23.5%	20.4%
RPXC	$15.92	$16.03	$0.00	0.7%	20.4%
Totals				42.1%	20.4%
11/15/13 Stocks	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
AVG	$17.22	$20.00	$0.00	16.1%	10.7%
ATVI	$17.71	$22.99	$0.20	30.9%	10.7%
GA	$9.04	$11.90	$0.23	34.2%	10.7%
RPXC	$17.04	$16.03	$0.00	-5.9%	10.7%
SYNA	$48.01	$75.57	$0.00	57.4%	10.7%
Totals				26.6%	10.7%
2/1/14 Stocks	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
ATVI	$17.13	$22.99	$0.20	35.3%	10.7%
KLAC	$61.47	$71.60	$0.90	17.9%	10.7%
RPXC	$16.22	$16.03	$0.00	-1.2%	10.7%
SNDK	$69.55	$93.24	$0.23	34.4%	10.7%
WNR	$39.11	$42.64	$0.52	10.4%	10.7%
Totals				19.4%	10.7%
5/6/2014	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
AVG	$19.57	$20.00	$0.00	2.2%	5.3%
CA	$29.54	$29.53	$0.25	0.8%	5.3%
CSCO	$22.79	$25.97	$0.19	14.8%	5.3%
NSR	$25.82	$29.10	$0.00	12.7%	5.3%
RCII	$28.78	$24.13	$0.23	-15.4%	5.3%
Totals				3.0%	5.3%

My May portfolio is actually the one that has pulled up a bit. I believe it was trailing by four points last time. Now just 2.3 points as CA and NSR both had solid earnings. Just a few weeks left of the August 2013 portfolio. It does look like it should be an all-in-all winner.  At least 4 of the names there have earnings reports in next two weeks, so buckle seat belts.

Discretionary Portfolio

This is probably the portfolio that has felt the most pain. Arguably I have had too many speculative plays (CAMT, TUBE, TSL, TLM and TC to name a few - though LOCO worked).

Stock	Shares	Avg Cost	Current Price	Pct Change	R3K Change	Diff
BAC-WTA	8,000	5.73	6.85	19.5%	18.7%	0.8%
CAMT	25,000	4.04	3.51	-13.2%	0.5%	-13.7%
GNW	11,000	9.16	16.35	78.6%	31.0%	47.6%
GTAT	18,000	10.49	14.91	42.1%	7.0%	35.1%
HIG-WT	1,650	21.24	26.70	25.7%	19.9%	5.8%
KLIC	7,000	11.48	13.94	21.5%	15.3%	6.2%
RIOM	25,000	2.01	2.40	19.1%	5.4%	13.7%
TC	20,000	2.94	2.80	-4.8%	-0.3%	-4.5%
TLM	5,000	10.89	10.91	0.2%	-0.5%	0.7%
TSL	4,000	11.13	11.36	2.1%	0.3%	1.8%
TUBE	4,000	9.40	9.61	2.2%	-0.3%	2.5%
Total Open				23.7%	9.4%	14.3%
Closed				2.4%	1.2%	1.2%
Combined				5.7%	2.5%	3.2%

Looking at these stocks, my BAC warrants have really given a lot back. Hard to believe, but they were over $8 earlier this year.  That is another one to think about addition, especially if there is a broader market pullback.

Dividend Portfolio

These guys have felt some pain as well. TIME, NADL and BBEP (amongst others) have pulled back.

Stock	Shares	Avg Cost	Current Price	Dividends Received	Pct Change	R3K Change	Diff
AOD	14,096	8.03	8.89	10,916.30	20.4%	21.7%	-1.3%
BBEP	5,713	16.74	21.79	9,693.96	40.3%	15.2%	25.2%
CSQ	6,954	8.69	11.93	13,707.39	59.9%	56.2%	3.7%
FSC	8,395	9.57	9.86	3,068.21	6.9%	5.5%	1.4%
GPS	2,000	40.55	39.92	440.00	-1.0%	4.4%	-5.4%
NADL	5,109	9.62	9.96	1,200.00	6.0%	3.0%	3.1%
NTC	6,753	12.01	12.51	2,284.84	7.0%	6.2%	0.7%
O	598	20.92	44.69	9,350.71	188.3%	117.0%	71.4%
OIBAX	4,136	5.00	6.18	8,195.12	63.2%	126.5%	-63.3%
TGONF	7,000	10.27	9.95	2,367.50	0.1%	19.8%	-19.6%
TIME	2,000	22.89	24.00	-	4.8%	0.6%	4.2%
TPVG	5,128	15.54	15.58	1,958.70	2.7%	3.7%	-1.0%
Total Open				63,183	19.2%	18.4%	0.8%
Closed					12.0%	10.9%	1.1%
Combined					13.1%	12.0%	1.1%
Annualized IRR Since 12/31/10					17.6%
2014 Gain					5.9%

BBEP did announce along with their earnings thise week that they are buying QRE (Breitburn Energy Partners to Buy QR Energy). While the announcement did cause BBEP to drop this week, I have looked it over and I like the deal.  The important thing is BBEP did not over-pay.

Anyhoo, we head into the final week of July. And while my portfolio has gone through a mini-correction, I am still hanging in there. For the year, up 9.1%. Almost a 2 point lead over the R3K, so certainly not a disaster. The MFI index is only up 4.75%.

	Annual		Inception to Date
Year	Russell	MFI	Russell ITD	MFI ITD
2006	11.40%	15.03%	11.40%	15.03%
2007	4.09%	-6.69%	15.96%	7.34%
2008	-37.05%	-37.97%	-27.00%	-33.42%
2009	32.51%	45.18%	-3.27%	-3.34%
2010	18.38%	22.77%	14.50%	18.67%
2011	-0.56%	-10.47%	13.87%	6.25%
2012	16.43%	9.70%	32.57%	16.56%
2013	33.01%	51.70%	76.34%	76.82%
2014	7.20%	4.74%	89.03%	85.20%

You can see that MFI went into 2013 in dead heat with R3K and is now trailing by almost 4 points.

Index	Stock	Start	Last Month	Current	YTD Change	Monthly Change	Shares
1	ATVI	17.83	22.50	23.19	30.0%	3.0%	13.07
2	MO	38.39	42.42	42.70	11.2%	0.7%	6.07
3	APOL	27.32	31.25	28.79	5.4%	-7.9%	8.53
4	AAPL	561.02	656.85	690.04	23.0%	5.1%	0.42
5	AGX	27.56	37.29	35.72	29.6%	-4.2%	8.46
6	BAH	19.15	21.45	21.21	10.8%	-1.1%	12.17
7	BKE	52.56	44.80	43.46	-17.3%	-3.0%	4.44
8	CA	33.65	29.24	30.03	-10.8%	2.7%	6.93
9	CACI	73.22	70.21	69.35	-5.3%	-1.2%	3.18
10	CHE	76.62	94.12	102.03	33.2%	8.4%	3.04
11	CRUS	20.43	22.74	23.35	14.3%	2.7%	11.41
12	CSCO	22.43	25.21	26.33	17.4%	4.4%	10.39
13	COH	56.13	34.87	35.31	-37.1%	1.3%	4.15
14	CRTX	9.49	9.50	9.50	0.1%	0.0%	24.56
15	DLX	52.19	59.13	56.47	8.2%	-4.5%	4.47
16	DHX	7.25	7.61	7.99	10.2%	5.0%	32.15
17	EBIX	14.71	14.46	12.87	-12.5%	-11.0%	15.85
18	EGL	33.40	38.26	34.86	4.4%	-8.9%	6.98
19	GME	49.26	41.13	46.34	-5.9%	12.7%	4.73
20	GTIV	12.41	15.06	18.28	47.3%	21.4%	18.78
21	GNI	68.10	22.09	21.58	-68.3%	-2.3%	3.42
22	HLF	78.70	64.84	66.36	-15.7%	2.3%	2.96
23	IQNT	11.41	14.02	11.60	1.7%	-17.3%	20.43
24	ESI	33.58	16.69	14.80	-55.9%	-11.3%	6.94
25	LPS	37.38	37.30	37.30	-0.2%	0.0%	6.24
26	LQDT	22.66	15.76	13.98	-38.3%	-11.3%	10.29
27	LO	50.68	62.20	61.96	22.3%	-0.4%	4.60
28	MSFT	37.41	42.26	45.06	20.4%	6.6%	6.23
29	MYGN	20.98	38.92	37.02	76.5%	-4.9%	11.11
30	NATR	17.32	17.17	16.21	-6.4%	-5.6%	13.46
31	NOC	114.61	120.94	128.87	12.4%	6.6%	2.03
32	PDLI	8.44	9.98	9.80	16.1%	0.0%	27.62
33	PFMT	10.30	10.10	10.18	-1.2%	0.8%	22.63
34	PETS	16.63	13.82	14.38	-13.5%	4.1%	14.02
35	PRSC	25.72	36.59	39.99	55.5%	9.3%	9.06
36	QCOR	54.45	92.79	95.50	75.4%	2.9%	4.28
37	RTN	90.70	92.86	93.28	2.8%	0.5%	2.57
38	RAI	49.99	61.69	58.20	16.4%	-5.7%	4.66
39	RPXC	16.90	17.75	16.03	-5.1%	-9.7%	13.79
40	SAIC	33.07	45.28	43.81	32.5%	-3.2%	7.05
41	SWHC	13.49	14.54	13.66	1.3%	-6.1%	17.28
42	STRA	34.47	52.51	48.66	41.2%	-7.3%	6.76
43	RGR	73.09	60.04	59.14	-19.1%	-1.5%	3.19
44	UIS	33.57	24.74	21.63	-35.6%	-12.6%	6.94
45	UNTD	13.76	10.40	10.54	-23.4%	1.3%	16.94
46	SPOK	14.28	15.65	14.75	3.3%	-5.8%	16.32
47	USNA	75.58	78.14	71.95	-4.8%	-7.9%	3.08
48	VCI	34.25	34.02	34.02	-0.7%	0.0%	6.81
49	VGR	16.37	21.08	21.31	30.2%	1.1%	14.24
50	WTW	32.93	20.17	20.17	-38.7%	0.0%	7.08
	Total	17,682	18,688	18,520	4.7%	-0.9%