Thursday, July 31, 2014

Ouch!

Murren Switzerland
GNW Tanks

Wow, GNW tanked a stunning 14% yesterday, going from $16.20 to $14.00 (Long Term-Care Policies Bite Genworth Again).  I believe that is an incredible over-reaction.  This is a company that is making money, 10 to 12x earnings and has a book value (excluding AOCI) of $24.31. I understand they have some problems with LTC, but this is a problem they acknowledged a few quarters ago and have been addressing. The fact of insurance is that it takes some time to file for rate increases and for them to then earn into premium. Investors can be so impatient, which I believe is an opportunity.  I will likely add some shares today. It is a blue light special.

To make myself (and any followers who own GNW with me) feel better, I have posted a picture of where I am going in Switzerland today.

Should Have Held My LOCO

LOCO is now up 83% on the price I paid on Friday last week.  Of course I sold them for a 10% gain.  They were one of the cheaper and more interesting IPOs of late.  So while they have gone up sharply, I do not think they are in nose bleed territory as some are suggesting. But I will not jump back in.

Mind The Gap

The joint drops of GNW and GTAT have shaved my lead over R3K down to a mere 68 basis points.  I am glad that today is the last day of July, hopefully August will be better.  Here is a week by week chart for 2014:



For those who prefer numbers, I was up 16.9% for the year and that has been whittled to 7.8%.

My MFI Stocks

These guys have been struggling as well. Investing is definitely not up, up, up all the time.  I laugh a little bit about it as I am still ok with my stock holdings and I have a lot of cash.  You cannot kill yourself when Mr Market goes nuts.

Date Differential Value
12/1/2012 -2.20%       99,765
1/1/2013 -1.78%      102,798
2/1/2013 -2.26%      102,594
3/1/2013 -2.23%      102,881
4/1/2013 -0.43%      106,804
5/1/2013 2.00%      110,423
6/1/2013 4.75%      115,831
7/1/2013 4.29%      114,888
8/1/2013 6.91%      124,799
9/1/2013 10.46%      124,536
10/1/2013 19.67%      138,655
11/1/2013 19.75%      143,514
12/1/2013 23.70%      150,105
1/1/2014 26.63%      157,138
2/1/2014 24.70%      150,619
3/1/2014 25.66%      158,116
4/1/2014 30.38%      162,991
5/1/2014 29.65%      162,428
6/1/2014 32.14%      167,001
7/1/2014 40.63%      177,971
Current 34.75%      172,256

So I am still up nicely for the year (157,138 to 172,256), but July has been a bit rocky.

Going Shopping?

I may dip a toe in market today.  Here is a listing of how all my stocks have fared in July:

Index Stock 7/1/2014 Current Monthly Change Share
1 GTAT         19.26         14.42 -25.1% 10.3%
2 GNW         17.65         13.98 -20.8% 7.1%
3 KLIC         14.50         13.94 -3.9% 5.0%
4 AOD           9.02            8.87 -1.7% 5.0%
5 BBEP         22.24         21.60 -2.9% 5.0%
6 ATVI         22.55         22.89 1.5% 3.7%
7 RPXC         18.07         16.12 -10.8% 3.6%
8 RIOM           2.22            2.41 8.6% 3.4%
9 NTC         12.65         12.45 -1.6% 3.4%
10 CSQ         12.03         11.82 -1.7% 3.3%
11 FSC           9.91            9.86 -0.5% 3.3%
12 GPS         41.66         40.90 -1.8% 3.2%
13 TPVG         16.06         15.55 -3.2% 3.2%
14 TGONF         10.05         10.38 3.3% 2.8%
15 AVG         20.22         19.65 -2.8% 2.6%
16 TC           2.85            2.85 0.0% 2.3%
17 BAC-WTA           7.07            6.82 -3.5% 2.2%
18 TLM         10.58         10.86 2.6% 2.1%
19 SNDK      105.38         93.34 -11.4% 2.1%
20 AGX         37.27         34.61 -7.1% 2.1%
21 TIME         24.18         24.57 1.6% 2.0%
22 NADL         10.67            9.60 -10.0% 1.9%
23 KLAC         73.07         71.89 -1.6% 1.9%
24 SYNA         91.88         75.88 -17.4% 1.9%
25 TSL         12.58         11.42 -9.2% 1.8%
26 HIG-WT         27.89         25.95 -7.0% 1.8%
27 WNR         38.09         41.26 8.3% 1.7%
28 TUBE           9.40            9.86 4.9% 1.6%
29 CSCO         25.08         25.63 2.2% 1.4%
30 NSR         26.48         28.06 6.0% 1.3%
31 CF      244.09       254.62 4.3% 1.2%
32 CA         29.32         29.58 0.9% 1.2%
33 O         44.86         43.44 -3.2% 1.1%
34 FLR         78.20         75.04 -4.0% 1.0%
35 OIBAX           6.19            6.16 -0.5% 1.0%
36 RCII         28.97         24.31 -16.1% 1.0%
37 EDV      103.35       106.46 3.0% 0.6%

Wow, that is an ugly table. I  think GNW and NADL are two to look really hard at given current prices for me. GTAT and SYNA also seem pretty cheap.

In Closing

One more picture of Murren




1 comment:

Karl Nelson said...

Good article and wonderful pictures! Do you get to the town by tram?