Thursday, July 03, 2014

Start Of Long Weekend

Happy Independence Day Eve!

Kind of nice having the 4th of July on a Friday.  Home a little bit early for the long weekend.  Actually we have very little planned; just a BBQ and thinking about a weekend day-trip to the shore. I am "shore" we'll be the only ones thinking about that.

Tomorrow we have Arthur coming up the coast.  I am just expecting some rain and 20 to 30 mph winds.  Then the weekend is supposed to be "mahvelous".

First 26 Weeks

I have started a new chart showing gains/losses by week.  It is pretty interesting (I think).  I suppose if I had some get-up-and-go, I would superimpose R3K on the chart.

Overall Cumulative % Gain First 26 Weeks

So as you can see, at the 1/2 mark I am up 16.7%, that is slightly better than 2x the R3K. You can see that the past 7 weeks, it has pretty much been straight up. Once again proving the adage "sell in May and stay away" is pretty much worthless.

All My Open Holdings

Here is a table showing all more open holdings and how they have done.  GTAT is actually much better, but I bought (with multiplier) 7,000 shares in 2014 and then later I sold 7,000 shares. But for tax reasons, I sold the LT gain shares, purchased at 3.39. So you can really view the 14,000 shares as all at 3.39.

Stock Avg Cost Current Price Dividends Gain per Share Pct Gain Pct of Portfolio
GTAT          8.64           19.55                 -              10.91 126.3% 10.3%
GNW          9.16           17.62                 -                8.46 92.4% 7.3%
KLIC       11.43           14.49                 -                3.06 26.7% 4.9%
AOD          8.03             8.99             0.71              1.67 20.8% 4.8%
BBEP       16.74           22.27             1.53              7.06 42.2% 4.8%
RPXC       16.36           18.12                 -                1.76 10.7% 3.9%
ATVI       17.39           22.67             0.20              5.48 31.5% 3.4%
GPS       40.55           42.00                 -                1.45 3.6% 3.2%
NTC       12.01           12.43             0.28              0.70 5.8% 3.2%
CSQ          8.69           11.98             1.90              5.18 59.6% 3.1%
TPVG       15.54           16.20             0.38              1.04 6.7% 3.1%
FSC          9.57             9.95             0.28              0.67 7.0% 3.1%
RIOM          1.97             2.29                 -                0.32 16.1% 3.0%
TGONF       10.27           10.05             0.34              0.12 1.1% 2.6%
AVG       18.32           20.16                 -                1.84 10.0% 2.5%
TLM       10.66           10.52                 -              (0.14) -1.3% 2.4%
SNDK       70.20         106.76             0.23            36.79 52.4% 2.3%
DAL       38.09           38.60                 -                0.51 1.3% 2.2%
SYNA       48.01           92.68                 -              44.67 93.0% 2.2%
BAC-WTA          5.73             7.14                 -                1.41 24.6% 2.2%
AGX       15.60           36.77             0.75            21.92 140.5% 2.0%
NADL          9.62           10.65             0.23              1.27 13.2% 2.0%
TSL       11.13           12.51                 -                1.39 12.4% 1.9%
TIME       22.89           24.48                 -                1.59 6.9% 1.8%
KLAC       61.35           74.62             0.90            14.17 23.1% 1.8%
IDTI       15.32           15.56                 -                0.24 1.6% 1.8%
HIG-WT       21.24           28.28                 -                7.04 33.2% 1.8%
GA          8.96           11.88             0.23              3.15 35.1% 1.6%
WNR       39.80           39.79             0.52              0.50 1.3% 1.5%
CSCO       22.79           25.19             0.19              2.60 11.4% 1.2%
NSR       25.82           27.04                 -                1.22 4.7% 1.2%
RCII       28.78           29.03             0.23              0.48 1.7% 1.1%
CA       29.54           29.36             0.25              0.07 0.2% 1.1%
CF     187.26         245.42             3.00            61.16 32.7% 1.1%
FLR       66.06           78.99             0.53            13.46 20.4% 1.0%
O       20.92           44.23          15.64            38.94 186.1% 1.0%
OIBAX          5.01             6.19             1.97              3.16 63.1% 1.0%
EDV     101.20         101.31             0.88              0.98 1.0% 0.5%

You can see that GTAT and GNW continue to be out-sized holdings.

Kids College Funds

Every year since 2009 I have bought one or two tranches of stocks for my kids college funds (my son is just one year away!).  I have really tried to buy stocks I am totally comfortable holding as I do not want college funds to be a trading vehicle. So I have tried to pick the SBI (single best idea) for them.  People say "Buy and Hold is dead", but my kids college funds say differently:

2009 Tranche Start Current Dividend Gain
ACE      32.86      105.15            8.29 245%
CB      35.37        92.85            7.93 185%
VR      21.92        38.85            7.18 110%
Total 180%
2010 Tranche Start Current Dividend Gain
ACE      47.61      105.15            7.05 136%
CB      49.20        92.85            6.53 102%
VR      26.25        38.85            6.38 72%
Total 103%
2011 Tranche Start Current Dividend Gain
ACE      62.09      105.15            5.42 78%
CB      58.15        92.85            5.05 68%
VR      30.52        38.85            5.50 45%
Total 64%
1/12 Tranche Start Current Dividend Gain
GNW        6.66        17.62               -   165%
LNC      19.72        53.28            1.12 176%
Total 170%
10/12 Tranche Start Current Dividend Gain
GNW        5.35        17.62               -   229%
VR      35.79        38.85            3.75 19%
Total 124%
1/13 Tranche Start Current Dividend Gain
GNW        8.12        17.62               -   117%
LNC      27.50        53.28            0.68 96%
Total 107%
10/13 Tranche Start Current Dividend Gain
IBM    181.51      188.53            3.00 6%
CSCO      22.91        25.19            0.36 12%
Total 9%
2014 Tranche Start Current Dividend Gain
MET      53.46        57.22            0.63 8%
LNC      47.66        53.28               -   12%
Total 10%

Man Vs Food

Finally, in closing, let me show the table that compares my MFI index year by year with the Russell 3000:

Annual Inception to Date
Year Russell MFI Russell ITD MFI ITD
2006 11.40% 15.03% 11.40% 15.03%
2007 4.09% -6.69% 15.96% 7.34%
2008 -37.05% -37.97% -27.00% -33.42%
2009 32.51% 45.18% -3.27% -3.34%
2010 18.38% 22.77% 14.50% 18.67%
2011 -0.56% -10.47% 13.87% 6.25%
2012 16.43% 9.70% 32.57% 16.56%
2013 33.01% 51.70% 76.34% 76.82%
2014 8.12% 7.36% 90.65% 89.82%
As you can see, it is a virtual dead heat. More to follow!

1 comment:

John Carney said...

Marsh,

Thanks for all of your good work!

After each exercise I hit my chest and say "who is the man". My name does not come up as my son has the same name and my son-in-law or my son always wins. They are animals and very successful.

Today you name came up even with your limp.

Bought some baby back ribs and fireworks and will toast a keystone light for you on the 4th.

Thanks for sharing. I am not for sure I would do the same.