MFI At The Halfway Point

MFI At The Halfway Point

Thought I might be fun to see how the MFI Index and some tracking portfolios are doing as of the end of the second quarter.

Index	Stock	Start	Last Quarter	Current	YTD Change	Quarterly Change	Shares
1	ATVI	17.83	20.44	22.50	26.2%	10.1%	13.07
2	MO	38.39	37.43	42.42	10.5%	13.3%	6.07
3	APOL	27.32	34.24	31.25	14.4%	-8.7%	8.53
4	AAPL	561.02	539.79	656.85	17.1%	21.7%	0.42
5	AGX	27.56	29.73	37.29	35.3%	25.4%	8.46
6	BAH	19.15	22.10	21.45	12.0%	-2.9%	12.17
7	BKE	52.56	46.02	44.80	-14.8%	-2.7%	4.44
8	CA	33.65	31.23	29.24	-13.1%	-6.4%	6.93
9	CACI	73.22	73.80	70.21	-4.1%	-4.9%	3.18
10	CHE	76.62	89.65	94.12	22.8%	5.0%	3.04
11	CRUS	20.43	19.87	22.74	11.3%	14.4%	11.41
12	CSCO	22.43	22.59	25.21	12.4%	11.6%	10.39
13	COH	56.13	50.00	34.87	-37.9%	-30.3%	4.15
14	CRTX	9.49	9.50	9.50	0.1%	0.0%	24.56
15	DLX	52.19	52.72	59.13	13.3%	12.2%	4.47
16	DHX	7.25	7.46	7.61	5.0%	2.0%	32.15
17	EBIX	14.71	17.15	14.46	-1.7%	-15.7%	15.85
18	EGL	33.40	45.05	38.26	14.6%	-15.1%	6.98
19	GME	49.26	41.10	41.13	-16.5%	0.1%	4.73
20	GTIV	12.41	9.12	15.06	21.4%	65.1%	18.78
21	GNI	68.10	19.06	22.09	-67.6%	15.9%	3.42
22	HLF	78.70	57.57	64.84	-17.6%	12.6%	2.96
23	IQNT	11.41	14.61	14.02	22.9%	-4.0%	20.43
24	ESI	33.58	28.68	16.69	-50.3%	-41.8%	6.94
25	LPS	37.38	37.30	37.30	-0.2%	0.0%	6.24
26	LQDT	22.66	26.05	15.76	-30.5%	-39.5%	10.29
27	LO	50.68	54.70	62.20	22.7%	13.7%	4.60
28	MSFT	37.41	41.27	42.26	13.0%	2.4%	6.23
29	MYGN	20.98	34.19	38.92	85.5%	13.8%	11.11
30	NATR	17.32	13.78	17.17	-0.9%	24.6%	13.46
31	NOC	114.61	123.99	120.94	5.5%	-2.5%	2.03
32	PDLI	8.44	8.31	9.98	18.2%	0.0%	27.62
33	PFMT	10.30	9.05	10.10	-1.9%	11.6%	22.63
34	PETS	16.63	13.58	13.82	-16.9%	1.8%	14.02
35	PRSC	25.72	28.28	36.59	42.3%	29.4%	9.06
36	QCOR	54.45	65.23	92.79	70.4%	42.3%	4.28
37	RTN	90.70	98.79	92.86	2.4%	-6.0%	2.57
38	RAI	49.99	54.09	61.69	23.4%	14.1%	4.66
39	RPXC	16.90	16.28	17.75	5.0%	9.0%	13.79
40	SAIC	33.07	37.67	45.28	36.9%	20.2%	7.05
41	SWHC	13.49	14.62	14.54	7.8%	-0.5%	17.28
42	STRA	34.47	46.43	52.51	52.3%	13.1%	6.76
43	RGR	73.09	59.80	60.04	-17.9%	0.4%	3.19
44	UIS	33.57	30.46	24.74	-26.3%	-18.8%	6.94
45	UNTD	13.76	11.56	10.40	-24.4%	-10.0%	16.94
46	USMO	14.28	18.17	15.65	9.6%	-13.9%	16.32
47	USNA	75.58	75.34	78.14	3.4%	3.7%	3.08
48	VCI	34.25	34.02	34.02	-0.7%	0.0%	6.81
49	VGR	16.37	21.54	21.08	28.8%	-2.1%	14.24
50	WTW	32.93	20.54	20.17	-38.7%	-1.8%	7.08
	Total	17,682	18,028	18,688	7.4%	3.7%

My reaction (besides the interesting note that MFI was up 3.7% in both the first and second quarter) is the volatility. Just for the quarter, you had three stocks down 30%+ (ESI, LQDT and COH). Of course QCOR and GTIV were up over 40%. So while MFI does seem to work in aggregate, if you pick the wrong random 5 stocks - you could certainly have a sub-par stretch.

New MFI Stocks

One interesting recent phenomenon is how stocks new to the MFI screen have been faring.  Here is a table showing all the new stocks since 12/31/13:

Stock	Initial Price	End Price	Percent Change	52 week low	Mkt Cap	Date
SNDK	69.37	106.76	53.9%	53.09	15,666	1/31/2014
PRSC	25.72	37.56	46.0%	23.91	343	12/31/2013
SAIC	32.58	45.47	39.6%	29.40	1,589	12/31/2013
SCSS	16.37	21.05	28.6%	15.31	904	1/31/2014
KING	18.08	21.87	21.0%	15.26	5,535	3/28/2014
NDZ	10.41	12.59	20.9%	7.15	644	3/28/2014
DEPO	11.93	14.19	18.9%	5.66	689	5/30/2014
TTWO	19.77	22.77	15.2%	15.23	2,007	2/28/2014
DGX	52.71	60.07	14.0%	50.46	7,632	2/28/2014
TIME	21.50	24.48	13.9%	18.51	2,381	5/30/2014
DNB	98.95	112.38	13.6%	94.29	3,751	3/28/2014
TZOO	17.55	19.60	11.7%	17.03	264	4/25/2014
KRFT	54.76	60.63	10.7%	50.54	32,988	2/28/2014
SYNT	80.90	88.63	9.6%	65.19	3,378	5/30/2014
IILG	20.38	22.06	8.2%	18.96	1,183	5/30/2014
ONE	3.76	3.98	5.9%	3.47	178	5/30/2014
BRCD	9.09	9.54	5.0%	5.75	3,971	5/30/2014
PENN	11.95	12.44	4.1%	10.26	1,043	3/28/2014
BWC	32.43	33.00	1.8%	29.95	3,585	3/28/2014
PTIE	5.65	5.72	1.2%	2.16	257	2/28/2014
CTSH	49.69	50.30	1.2%	32.31	15,074	3/28/2014
MBUU	19.82	20.01	1.0%	16.67	219	5/30/2014
SPRT	2.70	2.66	-1.5%	2.15	157	1/31/2014
NUS	82.66	73.14	-11.5%	60.77	4,829	3/28/2014
NSR	33.89	27.04	-20.2%	23.82	2,067	1/31/2014

As you can see, they are up an average of 12.5%. That compares to about 7.4% for R3K if you bought 6 equals stakes (one per month).

Lunch Tomorrow

As tomorrow looks like a beautiful day, thinking about driving to the coast and trying a traditional New England Crab Shack.  Typically eat at picnic tables in view of ocean. Lobster Rolls seem very popular.  Leaning towards Lenny and Joe's Fish Tale as two different people have recommended it!

My MFI Stocks in 2014

Since we have seen that the MFI Index is up 7.4% in 2014, I did a little legwork on my 4 tranches since the start of the year.  Here they are as currently stand, the way I am showing February and May tranches excludes the earlier stub.

8/15/2013	12/31/2013	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
CF	$233.04	$245.42	$3.00	6.6%	8.1%
FLR	$80.29	$78.99	$0.53	-1.0%	8.1%
AGX	$27.56	$36.77	$0.75	36.1%	8.1%
KLIC	$13.30	$14.49	$0.00	8.9%	8.1%
RPXC	$16.90	$18.12	$0.00	7.2%	8.1%
Totals				11.6%	8.1%
11/15/13 Stocks	12/31/2013	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
AVG	$17.21	$20.16	$0.00	17.1%	8.1%
ATVI	$17.83	$22.67	$0.20	28.3%	8.1%
GA	$11.24	$11.88	$0.23	7.7%	8.1%
RPXC	$16.90	$18.12	$0.00	7.2%	8.1%
SYNA	$51.81	$92.68	$0.00	78.9%	8.1%
Totals				27.9%	8.1%
2/1/14 Stocks	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
ATVI	$17.13	$22.67	$0.20	33.5%	11.7%
KLAC	$61.47	$74.62	$0.90	22.9%	11.7%
RPXC	$16.22	$18.12	$0.00	11.7%	11.7%
SNDK	$69.55	$106.76	$0.23	53.8%	11.7%
WNR	$39.11	$39.79	$0.52	3.1%	11.7%
Totals				25.0%	11.7%
5/6/2014	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
AVG	$19.57	$20.16	$0.00	3.0%	6.2%
CA	$29.54	$29.36	$0.25	0.2%	6.2%
CSCO	$22.79	$25.19	$0.19	11.4%	6.2%
NSR	$25.82	$27.04	$0.00	4.7%	6.2%
RCII	$28.78	$29.03	$0.23	1.7%	6.2%
Totals				4.2%	6.2%

Pretty impressive! My August tranche is up 11.6% and my November tranche is smoking at 27.9% since 12/31/13.  Now let me add the stub periods for February and May tranches. Hang on, this may take a second!

February Stub: down 8.5% in January (recall NUS got slammed) so combined with +25% = 14.4%. Still solid compared with R3K of 8.1%.

May Stub:  it was up 1.4%. So combined with 4.2% on new tranche gets you to +5.6%.

Averaging the four tranches (not quite mathematically correct):

(14.4% +5.6% + 27.9% + 11.6%)/4 = 15.1%.  

Now, at this point, you are probably way ahead of me and will kindly point out that I have totally wasted my time as I calculate my YTD MFI stat all the time! It is actually 15.34%.  So still interesting to see the splits by tranche.  The reason the two answers are not exactly correct are two fold:

1. My YTD number is a real number that reflects that I have added small amounts to each tranche above initial investment.
2. In taking the average to come up with 15.1%, I was assuming all four tranches were the same size as of 12/31/13. But that was not true as they have grown at different paces.

Enough rambling.  Have a great evening everyone.