MFI Tracking Analysis: Yield by Market Cap

Per JC's comments, I ran a quick pivot table that took my MFI tracking data from 2010 forward (the point I started capturing actual dividend yields as opposed to a simple flag (greater than 2.6% and less than 2.6%).

It did show that larger cap stocks even between 1.8% and 2.6% yields have done quite well (larger meaning about 900M+).   But there is a direct positive correlation between yield band and return for larger cap stocks. It was quite interesting.

Yield Rank	Largest	Smallest	Total
Under 1.8%	8.8%	8.3%	8.5%
1.8% to 2.6%	23.0%	10.0%	19.7%
2.6% to 3.5%	30.8%	10.1%	26.4%
3.5% to 4.5%	31.3%	24.0%	29.1%
4.5% and higher	38.3%	4.9%	18.3%
Grand Total	19.0%	8.2%	13.2%

Here is a second table showing how many data points at each tabular position:

Yield Rank	Largest	Smallest	Total
Under 1.8%	660	1,025	1,685
1.8% to 2.6%	109	37	146
2.6% to 3.5%	163	44	207
3.5% to 4.5%	91	40	131
4.5% and higher	171	255	426
Grand Total	1,194	1,401	2,595

Food for thought I'd say!

Ouch!

Murren Switzerland

GNW Tanks

Wow, GNW tanked a stunning 14% yesterday, going from $16.20 to $14.00 (Long Term-Care Policies Bite Genworth Again).  I believe that is an incredible over-reaction.  This is a company that is making money, 10 to 12x earnings and has a book value (excluding AOCI) of $24.31. I understand they have some problems with LTC, but this is a problem they acknowledged a few quarters ago and have been addressing. The fact of insurance is that it takes some time to file for rate increases and for them to then earn into premium. Investors can be so impatient, which I believe is an opportunity.  I will likely add some shares today. It is a blue light special.

To make myself (and any followers who own GNW with me) feel better, I have posted a picture of where I am going in Switzerland today.

Should Have Held My LOCO

LOCO is now up 83% on the price I paid on Friday last week.  Of course I sold them for a 10% gain.  They were one of the cheaper and more interesting IPOs of late.  So while they have gone up sharply, I do not think they are in nose bleed territory as some are suggesting. But I will not jump back in.

Mind The Gap

The joint drops of GNW and GTAT have shaved my lead over R3K down to a mere 68 basis points.  I am glad that today is the last day of July, hopefully August will be better.  Here is a week by week chart for 2014:

For those who prefer numbers, I was up 16.9% for the year and that has been whittled to 7.8%.

My MFI Stocks

These guys have been struggling as well. Investing is definitely not up, up, up all the time.  I laugh a little bit about it as I am still ok with my stock holdings and I have a lot of cash.  You cannot kill yourself when Mr Market goes nuts.

Date	Differential	Value
12/1/2012	-2.20%	99,765
1/1/2013	-1.78%	102,798
2/1/2013	-2.26%	102,594
3/1/2013	-2.23%	102,881
4/1/2013	-0.43%	106,804
5/1/2013	2.00%	110,423
6/1/2013	4.75%	115,831
7/1/2013	4.29%	114,888
8/1/2013	6.91%	124,799
9/1/2013	10.46%	124,536
10/1/2013	19.67%	138,655
11/1/2013	19.75%	143,514
12/1/2013	23.70%	150,105
1/1/2014	26.63%	157,138
2/1/2014	24.70%	150,619
3/1/2014	25.66%	158,116
4/1/2014	30.38%	162,991
5/1/2014	29.65%	162,428
6/1/2014	32.14%	167,001
7/1/2014	40.63%	177,971
Current	34.75%	172,256

So I am still up nicely for the year (157,138 to 172,256), but July has been a bit rocky.

Going Shopping?

I may dip a toe in market today.  Here is a listing of how all my stocks have fared in July:

Index	Stock	7/1/2014	Current	Monthly Change	Share
1	GTAT	19.26	14.42	-25.1%	10.3%
2	GNW	17.65	13.98	-20.8%	7.1%
3	KLIC	14.50	13.94	-3.9%	5.0%
4	AOD	9.02	8.87	-1.7%	5.0%
5	BBEP	22.24	21.60	-2.9%	5.0%
6	ATVI	22.55	22.89	1.5%	3.7%
7	RPXC	18.07	16.12	-10.8%	3.6%
8	RIOM	2.22	2.41	8.6%	3.4%
9	NTC	12.65	12.45	-1.6%	3.4%
10	CSQ	12.03	11.82	-1.7%	3.3%
11	FSC	9.91	9.86	-0.5%	3.3%
12	GPS	41.66	40.90	-1.8%	3.2%
13	TPVG	16.06	15.55	-3.2%	3.2%
14	TGONF	10.05	10.38	3.3%	2.8%
15	AVG	20.22	19.65	-2.8%	2.6%
16	TC	2.85	2.85	0.0%	2.3%
17	BAC-WTA	7.07	6.82	-3.5%	2.2%
18	TLM	10.58	10.86	2.6%	2.1%
19	SNDK	105.38	93.34	-11.4%	2.1%
20	AGX	37.27	34.61	-7.1%	2.1%
21	TIME	24.18	24.57	1.6%	2.0%
22	NADL	10.67	9.60	-10.0%	1.9%
23	KLAC	73.07	71.89	-1.6%	1.9%
24	SYNA	91.88	75.88	-17.4%	1.9%
25	TSL	12.58	11.42	-9.2%	1.8%
26	HIG-WT	27.89	25.95	-7.0%	1.8%
27	WNR	38.09	41.26	8.3%	1.7%
28	TUBE	9.40	9.86	4.9%	1.6%
29	CSCO	25.08	25.63	2.2%	1.4%
30	NSR	26.48	28.06	6.0%	1.3%
31	CF	244.09	254.62	4.3%	1.2%
32	CA	29.32	29.58	0.9%	1.2%
33	O	44.86	43.44	-3.2%	1.1%
34	FLR	78.20	75.04	-4.0%	1.0%
35	OIBAX	6.19	6.16	-0.5%	1.0%
36	RCII	28.97	24.31	-16.1%	1.0%
37	EDV	103.35	106.46	3.0%	0.6%

Wow, that is an ugly table. I  think GNW and NADL are two to look really hard at given current prices for me. GTAT and SYNA also seem pretty cheap.

In Closing

One more picture of Murren