As my readers know, I have commented many times that I am watching two signals for a bear flag. One is the 50 ema for the IWM versus the 200 day ema. That flag is not bearish yet. The other is from decision moose (Moosignal), and today they switched 100% into treasuries.
I was on the bubble about moving my portfolio more towards a 30% cash position. I think this fact clinches it. This morning I will sell some stocks. Stay tuned.
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6 comments:
Posted a question on your Saturday, March 29, 2014 Blog about starting a 2.6% dividend program. Probably should have been on a recent blog.
Another question is do you buy them all at once? Do you Add when new ones appear? How often do you add?
Any help would be appreciated.
John - not sue I can answer your question. My dividend portfolio is hypothetical with my buying all the dividend stocks once a month that are 2.6% or greater yield. Obviously, that would be difficult in reality.
I would lean towards buying them all at once, as I would prefer to take away personal stock picking bias. But that has its own individual risk of then a stock market correction. You would rally have to be committed to staying with it over multiple years.
Marsh-Thanks, I thought that is the answer if there is one. From Jan. 2010 to Dec. 29, 2013 it looks like the 2.6 program did 24.9% vs a run away stock market doing 16.0% if you use VTI. This is very impressive! Not long enough test but not too much down side.
Had an ideal at the dermatology office today. He cut four spots and blood went to my head.
You said Obviously that would be difficult in reality. I agree!
Let me try this.
You had a count of 672 >2.6% in four years. Thus you need to buy approx. 168 stock a year or 14 a month.
Take $100,000 as a example and save back 20% or more for the months you need to buy more than 14 stocks.
You have $80,000 to invest in 168 stocks. Thus you have 12 tranches coming due each month after one year and you would be fully invested.
I agree, with dividends being so popular you would need to stay with this for at least 3 years.
Appreciate any thoughts.
John, that approach seems to busy and transaction costs might start adding up. Maybe every other month.
I agree that this is a lot of stocks to own. Also they may not appear in a straight line to average 14 a month. Most of us do not want to own 170 stocks.
I use Interactive Brokers and you can trade for very little. Usually for $1.00. They have removed the $10 fee for an account over 100,000,
Buying the Caps over 700 M and using limit orders would also help on the spreads costs.
I like the idea that there is no stock picking if you buy them all.
After a test period maybe you would go to every other month or every quarter.
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