Saturday, April 19, 2014

Happy Easter Weekend Update!

Happy Easter Weekend Everyone!

Amazing how much things can change in a week.  Last week I was talking about a downward slide and now this week I am up 2.6%. Go figure.  Jim Cramer had an interesting segment looking at the minute by minute activity on Tuesday afternoon around 1 pm when the markets bottomed and then shot upward like a slingshot.  He at one point suggested the markets are manipulated.  That is possible, but I think what happens is that many traders use algorithms that are very similar to each other. And when something happens technically, it floods them all relatively simultaneously.

MFI Portfolio

It was a blowout week for this portfolio, up 3.5%.  It really helped having SNDK pop 9% Thursday (and almost 13% on the week) on great earnings (SanDisk soars after results top expectations, margin forecast raised). I was asked whether it is too late to buy SNDK.  I do not think it is too late.  Their results were SO good, that even with the run-up I still think they look very reasonable.  This could definitely be a $95 to $100 stock.  WNR and SYNA both jumped more than 10% over the week as well.  I am not sure I saw major news on either one.

Here is a table showing month-by-month movement of MFI portfolio:

Date Differential Value
12/1/2012 -2.20%       99,765
1/1/2013 -1.78%      102,798
2/1/2013 -2.26%      102,594
3/1/2013 -2.23%      102,881
4/1/2013 -0.43%      106,804
5/1/2013 2.00%      110,423
6/1/2013 4.75%      115,831
7/1/2013 4.29%      114,888
8/1/2013 6.91%      124,799
9/1/2013 10.46%      124,536
10/1/2013 19.67%      138,655
11/1/2013 19.75%      143,514
12/1/2013 23.70%      150,105
1/1/2014 26.63%      157,138
2/1/2014 24.70%      150,619
3/1/2014 25.66%      158,116
4/1/2014 30.38%      162,991
Current 28.92%      160,616

Then here is overall look at my 4 open tranches (all doing very well).

5/6/2013 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
KLIC $11.40 $12.14 $0.00 6.5% 18.2%
CYOU $29.24 $28.06 $0.00 -4.0% 18.2%
RDA $9.74 $17.78 $0.10 83.7% 18.2%
NVDA $13.85 $18.56 $0.32 36.3% 18.2%
CF $183.97 $242.34 $2.80 33.2% 18.2%
Totals 31.1% 18.2%
8/15/2013 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
CF $187.26 $242.34 $2.00 30.5% 13.8%
FLR $66.06 $77.87 $0.53 18.7% 13.8%
AGX $15.60 $27.21 $0.75 79.2% 13.8%
KLIC $11.29 $12.14 $0.00 7.5% 13.8%
RPXC $15.92 $16.71 $0.00 5.0% 13.8%
Totals 28.2% 13.8%
11/15/13 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
AVG $17.22 $19.40 $0.00 12.7% 4.6%
ATVI $17.71 $19.69 $0.20 12.3% 4.6%
GA $9.04 $11.69 $0.23 31.9% 4.6%
RPXC $17.04 $16.71 $0.00 -1.9% 4.6%
SYNA $48.01 $62.16 $0.00 29.5% 4.6%
Totals 16.9% 4.6%
2/1/14 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
ATVI $17.13 $19.69 $0.20 16.1% 4.6%
KLAC $61.47 $66.11 $0.45 8.3% 4.6%
RPXC $16.22 $16.71 $0.00 3.0% 4.6%
SNDK $69.55 $82.99 $0.00 19.3% 4.6%
WNR $39.11 $41.27 $0.26 6.2% 4.6%
Totals 10.6% 4.6%
Category/Tranche August November February May Total
Initial Investment      25,000       25,000     25,000      25,000    100,000
Current Tranche 28.2% 16.9% 10.6% 31.1% 21.9%
Previous Tranche 14.1% 43.7% 78.3% 0.0% 31.7%
MFI Overall Gain 46.2% 68.0% 97.1% 31.1% 60.6%
Current Balance      36,549       42,003     49,280      32,785    160,616
R3K Current Tranche 13.8% 42.9% 4.6% 18.2% 19.9%
R3K Overall Gain 39.0% 42.9% 26.7% 18.2% 31.7%
R3K Balance      34,747       35,734     31,670      29,542    131,693
Annualized IRR 25.4% 43.9% 75.1% 32.9% 48.1%

Discretionary Portfolio

When this portfolio does well, it does well.  Definitely some of my higher beta names.  GTAT was actually flat on the week, though that really surprised me.  On Monday it opened trading at $16.48. On Tuesday it dropped as low as $14.47.  I had the good sense to buy 4,000 shares (with my multiplier) on Tuesday at $15.10. Which I then sold the next day at $15.78. Now it is $16.17.

GNW went up 5% on the week,  LMNS got as low as $8.30 on Tuesday and closed the week at $9.56.  This portfolio did have a little action during the week, as besides the swing trdae on GTAT, I also made 3.5% on a similar trade with TZA.

For the record, here is how all my stocks fared during the week:

Index Stock 4/11/2014 Current Weekly Change Share
1 GTAT         16.20         16.17 -0.2% 13.1%
2 GNW         16.00         16.88 5.5% 7.5%
3 LMNS           9.35            9.56 2.2% 6.2%
4 KLIC         11.96         12.14 1.5% 5.3%
5 AOD           8.30            8.43 1.6% 4.7%
6 BBEP         19.98         20.27 1.5% 4.7%
7 RPXC         16.40         16.71 1.9% 3.8%
8 FGL         22.17         22.55 1.7% 3.6%
9 PM         83.14         83.15 0.0% 3.4%
10 NTC         12.20         12.20 0.0% 3.3%
11 ATVI         19.04         19.69 3.4% 3.2%
12 TPVG         15.58         15.73 1.0% 3.2%
13 CSQ         10.86         11.24 3.5% 3.1%
14 TGONF         10.40         10.25 -1.4% 2.9%
15 FSC           9.35            9.39 0.4% 2.5%
16 CF      237.72       242.34 1.9% 2.2%
17 BAC-WTA           7.60            7.95 4.6% 1.9%
18 SNDK         73.65         82.99 12.7% 1.9%
19 RIOM           1.96            1.88 -4.1% 1.9%
20 TWOU         12.94         13.06 0.9% 1.8%
21 KLAC         65.50         66.11 0.9% 1.7%
22 HIG-WT         24.73         26.10 5.5% 1.7%
23 WNR         36.66         41.27 12.6% 1.7%
24 GA         11.62         11.69 0.6% 1.7%
25 AGX         27.05         27.21 0.6% 1.6%
26 SYNA         55.88         62.16 11.2% 1.6%
27 RDA         17.69         17.78 0.5% 1.5%
28 AVG         19.15         19.40 1.3% 1.4%
29 GSOL           8.29            8.29 0.0% 1.3%
30 NVDA         18.12         18.56 2.4% 1.1%
31 FLR         74.47         77.87 4.6% 1.1%
32 OIBAX           6.13            6.13 0.0% 1.0%
33 O         41.43         41.89 1.1% 1.0%
34 CYOU         28.67         28.06 -2.1% 0.8%

Then here is where my Discretionary Portfolio stands:

Stock Shares Avg Cost Current Price Pct Change R3K Change Diff
BAC-WTA         6,000               5.35                 7.95 48.6% 18.3% 30.3%
GNW       11,000               9.16               16.88 84.4% 24.2% 60.1%
GSOL         4,000               8.58                 8.29 -3.3% -0.5% -2.8%
GTAT       20,000               7.06               16.17 128.9% 7.0% 121.9%
HIG-WT         1,650             21.24               26.10 22.9% 13.7% 9.2%
KLIC         7,000             11.48               12.14 5.8% 9.4% -3.6%
LMNS       16,000             12.71                 9.56 -24.8% -1.0% -23.8%
RIOM       25,000               2.25                 1.88 -16.5% 0.1% -16.6%
SPY               79           185.98            186.39 0.2% 1.0% -0.8%
TWOU         3,399             13.74               13.06 -4.9% -1.3% -3.6%
        
        
        
        
        
Total Open 31.2% 6.7% 24.5%
Closed 2.9% 1.6% 1.2%
Combined 8.9% 2.7% 6.2%

Dividend Portfolio

Not always my sexiest portfolio, but every week I am collecting dividends on this portfolio for real in my account. And let me tell you, there is nothing like real income that I can use to take the family to Chili's with to make it real.  With my multiplier, in April so far $3,600 of dividends have been received in my brokerage account! Maybe I will take the family to Ruth Chris' Steakhouse instead!

Stock Shares Avg Cost Current Price Dividends Received Pct Change R3K Change Diff
AOD        13,890                    8.02             8.43              7,746.20 12.1% 15.7% -3.6%
BBEP          5,713                 16.74           20.27              6,840.21 28.3% 9.2% 19.0%
CSQ          6,856                    8.65           11.24            12,021.29 50.2% 49.1% 1.1%
FGL          4,000                 20.69           22.55                  195.00 9.3% 1.4% 7.8%
FSC          6,704                    9.65             9.39              1,112.06 -1.0% 0.4% -1.4%
NTC          6,692                 12.01           12.20              1,135.35 3.0% 0.8% 2.2%
O              593                 20.73           41.89              9,024.78 175.5% 107.7% 67.8%
OIBAX          4,125                    5.00             6.13              8,001.62 61.5% 115.2% -53.7%
PM          1,000                 78.60           83.15                  940.00 7.0% 0.2% 6.8%
TGONF          7,000                 10.27           10.25              2,367.50 3.1% 13.6% -10.5%
TPVG          5,000                 15.55           15.73                  450.00 1.7% -1.6% 3.4%
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
Total Open                  49,834 16.3% 13.9% 2.5%
Closed 12.5% 11.2% 1.4%
Combined 13.1% 11.6% 1.5%
Annualized IRR Since 12/31/10 17.2%
2014 Gain 1.6%

Well, I think that is enough for now. Looks like a beautiful morning, I think I will feed to birds, make another cup of coffee and get the weekend going.  Have a great Easter everyone!

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