I Told You So

I Told You So

There is a certain satisfaction with telling someone "I Told You So".  Barron's Magazine based

their entire weekend magazine on those four little words.  Of course, sometimes being early can be costly. I say that because they gave their warning on November 13th.  On that date, the Nasdaq was at 3,965.  Then it got as high as 4,300.  They are now back at 3,999. So selling your stuff on November 13th would have cost you.  Not sure Barron's can claim "I Told You So" quite yet.  Well, reading their article a bit, they actually identified 11 stocks in that article as being specifically over-valued.  That group is down 11% in aggregate since the article (Potbelly and Linked In are the two that have fallen the most).  That is a successful "I Told You So".

Not So Smart

I have definitely strayed from some of my basic investing guideposts.  I got caught somewhat in the

lust for easy money in recent IPOs.  You see everyone else making "easy money" and it is so tempting to jump in.  The more I think about it, I think I will just call it an expensive lesson and sell my two remaining IPO holdings (TWOU and LMNS).  They are certainly both more speculative than investments.  And the good news is that while they have done poorly, I am still in relatively good shape in 2014.  The other "mistake" was selling INTC (and probably to a lesser extent CSCO). They are both been long term core holdings in my dividend portfolio and it was impatient of me to rationalize their sale.  We all make mistakes.  The key idea is not to make any that are so severe that you can not recover.  And in reality, while some of the recent speculative buys will cost me $, some of my other speculative buys such as ATHM and HIMX made me a ton of $, so at the end of the day, it was likely a wash.

The Contest

Readers will recall that I started a contest with Barron's, Merrill Lynch and others at the start of the year. I know after the first couple of months, I was thinking how smart Cantor-Fitzgerald was as they were stomping everyone.  Let us see how everyone looks, now that the tide has gone out a bit!

Player	Stock	Start	Current	Dividends	Change
MFI Diary	GNW	15.53	16.00	-	3.0%
	GTAT	8.72	16.20	-	85.8%
	SBS	11.34	8.93	-	-21.3%
	HIMX	14.72	10.47	-	-28.9%
	HIG-WT	27.53	24.73	-	-10.2%
	KLIC	13.30	11.96	-	-10.1%
	CF	233.04	237.72	1.00	2.4%
	BAC-WTA	6.47	7.60	-	17.5%
	RPXC	16.90	16.40	-	-3.0%
	ATVI	17.83	19.04	0.20	7.9%
	Total				4.3%
Player	Stock	Start	Current	Dividends	Change
Barron's	ABX	17.63	18.62	-	5.6%
	CNQ	33.10	39.40	-	19.0%
	DE	91.33	92.01	-	0.7%
	GM	40.87	31.93	-	-21.9%
	INTC	25.96	26.18	0.23	1.7%
	MET	53.92	49.19	0.28	-8.3%
	NSRGY	73.59	77.13	-	4.8%
	SPG	152.16	166.38	1.25	10.2%
	AAL	30.02	33.68	-	12.2%
	C	52.11	45.68	0.01	-12.3%
	Total				1.2%
Player	Stock	Start	Current	Dividends	Change
ML/BAC	ADM	43.40	44.41	0.24	2.9%
	CAT	90.81	101.45	0.60	12.4%
	CTL	31.85	33.35	-	4.7%
	C	52.11	45.68	0.01	-12.3%
	CSCO	22.43	22.46	0.34	1.6%
	DVA	63.37	67.30	-	6.2%
	XOM	101.20	96.72	0.63	-3.8%
	GM	40.87	31.93	0.30	-21.1%
	NEE	85.62	95.15	-	11.1%
	NUE	53.38	50.69	-	-5.0%
	Total				-0.3%
Player	Stock	Start	Current	Dividends	Change
Eric Y	CA	33.65	29.41	0.25	-11.9%
	CLCT	17.15	20.82	0.33	23.3%
	CSCO	22.43	22.46	0.34	1.6%
	LO	50.68	52.24	0.62	4.3%
	MANT	29.93	28.67	-	-4.2%
	MSFT	37.41	39.21	0.28	5.6%
	PETS	16.63	12.79	0.17	-22.1%
	RGR	73.09	61.03	-	-16.5%
	USMO	14.28	17.14	-	20.0%
	VCI	34.25	34.02	-	-0.7%
	Total				0.0%
Player	Stock	Start	Current	Dividends	Change
Cantor/Fitz	AAPL	561.02	519.61	3.05	-6.8%
	JNPR	22.57	24.29	-	7.6%
	DLR	49.12	51.68	-	5.2%
	FB	54.65	58.53	-	7.1%
	GOOG	1,120.71	1,061.20	-	-5.3%
	DATA	68.93	63.17	-	-8.4%
	SPLK	68.67	57.68	-	-16.0%
	SVU	7.29	6.71	-	-8.0%
	TMO	111.35	115.77	-	4.0%
	VSTM	11.40	9.37	-	-17.8%
	Total				-3.8%

Hmmm, amazingly I am still in first.  GTAT makes up for a lot of sins. And in the PWP contest, out of over 550 contestants, I am still #10. Woo-hoo!