Thursday, April 17, 2014

Only 11 Trading Days Left On May MFI Tranche!

I only have 11 trading days left on the May 6th 2013 MFI tranche. It is looking like it will be a solid winner. The five stocks (RDA, KLIC, CF, NVDA and CYOU) are up in aggregate about 31%, so that is extremely satisfactory (broader market is up 18%).

I have kicked around the five new names many times in my head. I actually created a list of five stocks in mid February that I tracked (K, SYMC, CSCO, SAIC and MO). They have done very well, up about 7% in that time frame. But I think the ship has sailed on several of those names.

Even with the volatility in the stock market and some earnings reports coming out, the core list of stocks via the screen has not been changing much. I think the names that interest me include:

MSFT, CSCO, COH, NSR, BKE, PETS, PFMT, EGL, NTES, NUS and SNDK.  Maybe I will add AGX into the mix as well. Quite a few dividend payers in there.  More retail than usual, but I have been underweight retail a long time and some of them are starting to look pretty reasonable. One Chinese company in there for good measure, I have done pretty well with my Chinese picks (RDA and GA have both been big winners, CYOU not so good).

Today was my second straight day of major out performance. I was up almost exactly 1%, versus a quarter for the market. SNDK and LMNS were the major water carriers. I am not sure if we are over the mini correction (if so, the Moose was wrong). But it is certainly not the time for a victory lap either.  I will likely still continue to steer my portfolio more towards 30% cash and move away from the names I have less confidence in. But my preference is to do the trades on my terms. I have no need to panic, with 25% cash and no stocks on margin - if I cannot get a reasonable price, I can simply wait.

2 comments:

Unknown said...

Marshall,

Have you ever heard of the 17.6 year cycle.

http://theinvestmentsblog.blogspot.com/2009/07/markets-176-year-cycle.html

Also kind of talks about it in this small clip from CNBC today.

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000268059&__source=yahoo%7cheadline%7cquote%7cvideo%7c&par=yahoo

Found it interesting in the video what sectors have performed the best Healthcare and Energy up big and how Financials and telecoms have lagged.

In the next up cycle do you think that it might flip and the laggards become leaders?
Also I am curious why early on you had WSTC as a possible May stock but dropped it?

Marsh_Gerda said...

Junker - for some reason WSTC is not showing up on my screen right now. I will try and figure out why.